Apple Releases Apple Intelligence Ads, The Controversy Surrounding the Ads, My Verdict
Hello everyone. We are going to shift back to talking product. Today’s update will be focused on Apple Intelligence ads, some of which are causing quite the stir online. The tentative plan for tomorrow is that we will talk screens in the home.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
Apple Releases Apple Intelligence Ads
Over the past two months, Apple has released seven ads for Apple Intelligence.
The first tranche of ads, with actress Bella Ramsey from “Game of Thrones” and “The Last of Us,” came out at the end of September. The ads were from Apple’s ad agency TBWA\Media Arts Lab.
1) iPhone 16 Pro - Email summary. Bella uses email summary to quickly go over an email pitch from her agent that she forgot to look at. The copy attached to the video ad on YouTube includes: “Tap to reveal a summary of a long email in the Mail app and cut to the chase. You can also view summaries of emails right from your inbox.” The video has 5.2M views on YouTube (10K up votes).
2) iPhone 16 Pro - Custom memory movies. Bella helps a Dad trying to eulogize his daughter’s pet fish buried in the backyard by creating a memory movie using photos of the daughter with the fish. “Create a custom memory movie by entering a description in Photos, and Apple Intelligence will find the best photos and videos to craft a storyline with its own narrative arc.” 320K views on YouTube (9K up votes).
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Microsoft 3Q24 Earnings, Amazon 3Q24 Earnings
Hello everyone.
In today’s update, we will go over Microsoft and Amazon earnings. We will modify our earnings review methodology a little bit to make it possible to cover both in the same update.
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Meta 3Q24 Earnings, Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Numbers, Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Earnings Calls
Hello everyone. We will continue our Big Tech CY3Q24 earnings reviews with Meta. We will first go over my big picture overview. The discussion will then turn to over my takeaways from the earnings release and earnings conference call(s).
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Alphabet 3Q24 Earnings, Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Numbers, Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Earnings Call
Hello everyone.
We are going to try something new with Big Tech 3Q24 earnings reviews. After going over a very big picture overview of what each company reported, we will then discuss three takeaways from the numbers (i.e. the earnings release) and then three takeaways from the earnings conference call. Those call takeaways will probably end up having a more qualitative feel to them. A goal found with this approach is to emphasize the most important items from earnings versus just going through a running collection of observations with varying degrees of importance. We will see how this new format goes. Today’s update will be focused on Alphabet’s earnings.
One quick update to yesterday’s discussion. The following was mentioned:
“It's certainly possible that Apple’s top shareholders don’t mind the current dividend payout ratio and aren’t clamoring for Apple to pay a higher payout as it means they would be paying more in tax (there’s no tax associated directly with share buyback).”
Thank you to member Ravi for reaching out via email to remind me that there is a new 1% excise tax facing share buyback. While my commentary was strictly about taxes facing shareholders (there is no direct tax impact on shareholders related to buyback), Apple is liable for the 1% excise tax. At 1%, the tax is not significant enough to sway strategy or capital return preference.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
Alphabet 3Q24 Earnings
Here’s Alphabet and Google CEO Sundar Pichai kicking off Alphabet’s 3Q24 earnings release:
“The momentum across the company is extraordinary. Our commitment to innovation, as well as our long-term focus and investment in AI, are paying off with consumers and partners benefiting from our AI tools.
In Search, our new AI features are expanding what people can search for and how they search for it. In Cloud, our AI solutions are helping drive deeper product adoption with existing customers, attract new customers and win larger deals. And YouTube’s total ads and subscription revenues surpassed $50 billion over the past four quarters for the first time.
We generated strong revenue growth in the quarter, and our ongoing efforts to improve efficiency helped deliver improved margins. I’m looking forward to driving more advances for consumers, customers and creators globally.”
Based on Pichai’s standards, that’s bullish commentary. One senses a little bit of “watch me now” tone in his comments as well. In some tech circles,
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Apple’s Capex-Light Business Model, Apple’s Excess Cash Position, Apple Buyback vs. Apple Dividends
Hello everyone.
The initial plan was to begin going over Big Tech CY3Q24 earnings. There are a few new ideas worth trying out to get caught up quickly and efficiently. While we will still do that, a few incoming questions from members late yesterday led me to change the schedule around.
For the past two weeks, we have gone deep into Apple’s latest financial results. Yesterday, we went over everything share buyback. A somewhat simple question was raised. Is Apple doing the right thing?
The company is generating $100B+ of free cash flow per year and pouring it all into share buyback (and dividends). Is that the right strategy given where we are in the current generative AI / spatial computing environment?
It’s a worthy discussion to have in today’s update.
There are two topics in particular worth addressing:
Is Apple investing enough in its business?
Is Apple making the prudent decision with what is deemed excess cash?
Apple’s Capex-Light Business Model
Over the past year, one of the defining Big Tech debates on Wall Street has involved capex (capital expenditures). Generative AI mania put a spotlight on the amount of cash companies were spending on data centers, cloud infrastructure, and related assets.
Even before AI mania, capex was a hot button issue in Big Tech. Business models dependent on data-collection services were requiring increasing investment at unprecedented rates. Success for such business models was based on achieving scale in order to grab as much data as possible. Considering how several Big Tech business models were already capex-heavy in the sense of maintaining these data-collection services, the need for even more capex for AI came across as unnerving to some on Wall Street.
As 2024 progressed, there was evidence that Wall Street was warming to the capex situation. As discussed in the Inside Orchard essay "Big Tech Should Be Spending Big on AI," Wall Street began to agree with the philosophy that it is better for companies to invest now in capex because being late to the game would lead to more serious consequences.
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Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High, A “Shrinking” Apple
Hello everyone. Today’s update will have a share buyback theme. While we received a few new buyback data points in Apple’s 2024 10-K, the discussion won’t be focused on just 4Q24 trends.
Let’s jump right in.
Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High
Here is quarterly data from the past three years for Apple's share buyback via open market transactions:
4Q21: $20.0B. Average repurchase price per share: $146.41.
1Q22: $14.4B. Average repurchase price per share: $153.76.
2Q22: $22.9B. Average repurchase price per share: $167.16.
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My Notes from Apple’s 2024 10-K
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 4Q24 earnings review. We will go over Apple’s 10-K filing for 2024. There are a few remaining comments to go over regarding Apple’s share buyback. We can do that tomorrow.
Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q. Said another way, 10-Ks are a treasure trove of granular financial data. We will also use this opportunity to recap some of Apple’s financial totals for FY2024 and how they compared to prior years.
My Notes from Apple’s 2024 10-K
Quarterly Cash Dividends. Regarding Apple's quarterly cash dividend (a 0.4% dividend yield given Apple's current stock price), Apple's share repurchases have led to a declining share count which makes it less costly to pay the same amount of cash dividends. Despite the quarterly cash dividend increasing by 164% since being reinstated in 2012, Apple's dividend expense has increased by just 54%.
Here is Apple's annual dividend expense:
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Hello everyone. We will return to reviewing Apple’s 4Q24 earnings.
Here’s what we have discussed so far:
Last Friday: Big picture thoughts / comparing Apple’s results to my expectations.
Monday: Focus on revenue growth.
Tuesday: Focus on Apple Services.
Thursday: Examine Apple’s earnings call with analysts
After today’s update, our Apple earnings review will be nearly complete.
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the 12th installment of reading between the lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, Motley Fool offers a written transcript here.
Apple Intelligence
Q (Goldman Sachs): What Apple Intelligence feedback have you received from users and developers? Is Apple Intelligence driving iPhone sales?
Cook: There is interest for Apple Intelligence. In the first three days, 18.1 adoption is twice as fast as 17.1 adoption last year. There is going to be a “very strong” drumbeat to launches and releases from now into 2025.
My response: Out of 18 analyst questions asked on Apple’s 4Q24 call, seven (40%) had to do with Apple Intelligence. On one level, the interest is understandable as Apple has been talking up Apple Intelligence since it was unveiled in June.
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President Trump Wins Blowout Election, Impacts on Apple, Tim Cook’s Key Role
Hello everyone. We are going to take a detour and talk about the U.S. presidential election. A second Trump term will present more work for Apple, although the resulting upside is significantly greater than what would have been found with a Kamala Harris presidency. Let’s jump into today’s update.
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Apple 4Q24 Earnings Review: A Few Apple Services Surprises
Hello everyone.
For today’s update, we will address another Apple question that has generated buzz within financial circles: How is Apple’s financial performance being impacted by Services? There are a few surprises to uncover.
Let’s jump right in.
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Reviewing Apple’s 4Q24: What Is Apple’s “Real” Growth Rate?
Hello everyone.
Welcome to a new week. Much of our focus this week will be given to reviewing Apple’s earnings. As we discussed last Friday, even though results were close to my estimates, there is value found in drilling down into some of the numbers and specific business lines.
In addition to picking apart Apple’s earnings conference call, we will try something a little bit different this earnings review cycle by addressing a few Apple questions that have generated buzz within financial circles. One such topic will drive today’s discussion: Apple’s growth rate.
Things are a bit crazy here in the U.S. with the presidential election taking place today. Depending on when a winner is called, we will interrupt our earnings review to go over my thoughts on potential Apple impacts.
Let’s jump in.
Reviewing Apple’s 4Q24: What Is Apple’s “Real” Growth Rate?
Last Thursday, Apple reported $94.9B of revenue for 4Q24. The figure represented 6.1% growth. My expectation was that Apple would slightly beat its guidance commentary (i.e. growth was said to be close to 4.9%).
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Initial Thoughts on Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings
Hello everyone. There’s a lot to say regarding Apple’s earnings. In this special Friday edition of Above Avalon Daily, we will go over my initial thoughts. The discussion will continue on Monday.
Initial Thoughts on Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings
Heading into Thursday, expectations facing Apple were a tad elevated versus what the market was needing to hear over the summer. Despite those higher expectations, Apple’s underlying business performance had positioned the company well to not disappoint. That’s pretty much exactly how Apple’s 4Q24 earnings release played out. Revenue and adjusted EPS were spot on to my estimates. Looking ahead at 1Q25 guidance, we can call Apple’s commentary as good. There was no need to add a disclaimer or asterisk to that either.
Looking at Apple’s performance at a very high level:
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Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros, My AAPL 4Q24 Estimates
Hello everyone. We are at that point of the week where some triage is needed. There is a lot of stuff unfolding and not enough time to cover it all. Big Tech earnings are now in full swing. We will discuss earnings from Apple competitors in due time. For now, our attention is needed elsewhere.
Programming Note. With Apple reporting FY4Q24 earnings on Thursday, there won’t be a daily update published Thursday. Instead, there will be a special edition Friday update that goes over my thoughts and reactions to Apple’s earnings.
Apple Earnings Preview. Yesterday’s update, which was sent out very early on Wednesday in the AM ET, went over the big picture heading into Apple's earnings on Thursday. The FY4Q24 expectations game is slightly biased to the upside for Apple. Compared to expectations facing Apple ahead of 3Q24 earnings, things are a tad tougher for Apple to surprise to the upside. However, the general framework still has an upward bias. Today’s discussion will continue my earnings preview so that we are fully prepared for tomorrow.
Updated MacBook Pros. For Day 3 of Apple’s Mac week, the company unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Many of the broader points regarding Apple Intelligence and Mac strategy were discussed in the two most recent updates. There is no need to reiterate those points again with MacBook Pro. However, there are a few observations about the machines worth going over. We will quickly go over those (250-300 words) and then switch over to Apple’s earnings.
Financial Models Add-on. There are several updates to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models coming down the pipeline. In looking over the models a few weeks ago, my preference ended up being to wait until we got closer to 4Q24 earnings to update all of the models at once. Accordingly, my updated installed base models, which influenced my 4Q24 estimates, will go live on Thursday for those members with the Financial Models add-on. In addition, my updated Apple earnings model will be uploaded to the add-on in the AM. As a reminder to those of you with the add-on, to access the financial models, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here) and once signed in you will see the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized download page. More information on the Financial Models add-on is available here.
Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros
On Wednesday, Apple unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Along with a press release, Apple taped a 14-minute presentation (available here). For those of you who have watched the iMac and Mac mini presentations, the MacBook Pro presentation relied on the same general playbook. The MacBook Pro update was anchored by Apple Intelligence and Apple Silicon. The relevant presentation sections were tailored to show off workflows that would likely be given to MacBook Pro.
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The Redesigned Mac Mini, The Setup Facing Apple Ahead of 4Q24 Earnings
Hello everyone. Today's update will kick off with new Apple product news, followed by the start of our Apple 4Q24 earnings preview. The earnings talk will flow into tomorrow’s update.
Let’s jump right in.
The Redesigned Mac Mini
Day 2 of Apple’s Mac week was all about the Mac mini (and M4 Pro chip).
Before we get to the device, Apple’s strategy of breaking up its Mac announcements into multiple days is striking me as a good one.
Each announcement is getting much more play on social media versus combining the announcements into one event or update. Such a strategy won’t work though for in-person Apple events when various products announcements are combined to take advantage of the press being on site. For non-event releases that involve multiple products, breaking up the news into individual announcements, complete with taped presentations, makes sense to me. We will see if this is something that Apple will look to replicate in the future.
As for the updated Mac mini, you can tell
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A Different Kind of Apple Product Unveiling, The Updated iMac, Apple’s Mac Pitch to Windows Users
Hello everyone.
This is shaping up to be a busy week. On Monday, Apple unveiled an updated iMac. As we will discuss shortly, Apple has pointed to more Mac news coming down the pipeline this week. We also have Apple Intelligence launching on Monday.
On Thursday (Halloween), Apple reports FY4Q24 earnings.
Today’s update will focus on the updated iMac. The tentative plan will be to begin talking about Apple’s earnings tomorrow with that discussion rolling into Wednesday.
Let’s jump in.
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Navigating Through More Apple Vision Pro Production Noise, Vimeo Launches App for Apple Vision Pro
Hello everyone. We will wrap up the week in Apple Vision Pro land. In what has become an unfortunate trend, Apple Vision Pro misinformation continues to swirl online. Let’s jump right into the first story.
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Apple’s “New” Product Naming Nomenclature, More on Disney / App Store IAP
Hello everyone. There was one follow-up to yesterday’s discussion regarding Disney and the App Store that we will get to today.
We begin with an observation that occurred to me last week when Apple unveiled the iPad mini.
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Netflix 3Q24 Earnings, Netflix and the Scripted Content High Road, Disney Moves Away From App Store In-App Purchase
Happy Tuesday. We will kick things off with Netflix's earnings. The discussion will then turn to a noteworthy development on the App Store front regarding Disney.
Let's jump in.
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Thoughts on the Tim Cook Profile in WSJ Magazine
Yesterday, WSJ Magazine published a Tim Cook profile (the piece is available via Apple News+ here) for its annual Innovators issue. Cook, along with a few other recipients, will be recognized at the WSJ's 14th Annual Innovator Awards next week.
Apple smartly used the profile to put the spotlight back on its products.
In today’s update, we go over my thoughts on the profile. In addition to the broader themes found in the profile, we go over a few areas where the WSJ profile was lacking.
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Apple Pay Turns 10 Years Old, Apple Pay and the Long Game
With Apple Pay’s 10th anniversary coming up this Sunday (unveiled on October 20th, 2014), Apple decided to give its decade-long mobile payments and wallet effort some PR attention. We go over my thoughts on Apple Pay at 10 years.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.
Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.
An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.