FTC Sues Microsoft Over Activision Deal, Console Gaming Competition, Games vs. Video Competition (Daily Update)
The update is dedicated to discussing the FTC suing Microsoft over its proposed Activision Blizzard acquisition. We focus on Neil’s thoughts regarding competition in gaming and the areas where the FTC faces its steepest challenges in going after Microsoft. The discussion concludes with a look at differences between games and video when thinking of competition and U.S. antitrust.
Hello everyone. Happy Tuesday. Let's jump right into today's update.
FTC Sues Microsoft Over Activision Deal
“The Federal Trade Commission Thursday sued Microsoft Corp. to block its planned $75 billion acquisition of Activision Blizzard Inc., taking one of its biggest shots under the Biden administration at halting a merger of technology giants.
The lawsuit sets the stage for a court challenge over the deal as Microsoft agreed as part of negotiations with the ‘Call of Duty’ publisher to defend the acquisition against a government lawsuit.
The law enforcement agency said the deal is illegal because it would give Microsoft the ability to control how consumers beyond users of its own Xbox consoles and subscription services access Activision’s games. The company could raise prices for people who don’t use Microsoft’s hardware to access the games, or even cut off access entirely, the FTC said.
‘Microsoft has already shown that it can and will withhold content from its gaming rivals,’ said Holly Vedova, director of the FTC’s bureau of competition, in a statement. ‘Today we seek to stop Microsoft from gaining control over a leading independent game studio and using it to harm competition in multiple dynamic and fast-growing gaming markets.’
Microsoft said it continues to believe the deal, which it values at $68.7 billion after adjusting for Activision’s net cash, would expand competition and signaled it plans to litigate with the federal agency.
‘We have been committed since Day One to addressing competition concerns, including by offering earlier this week proposed concessions to the FTC,’ Brad Smith, Microsoft vice chair and president, said. “While we believed in giving peace a chance, we have complete confidence in our case and welcome the opportunity to present our case in court.”
The FTC’s complaint is available here.
The complaint's primary thrust has to do with Microsoft removing one of the few “independent companies capable of developing standout video games [for high-performance video game consoles]” and the impact such a deal would have on Sony PlayStation.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Foxconn Invests Another $500M in India, iPhone Production in India, Twitter Looking To Offset App Store Revenue Share (Daily Update)
We begin with Neil’s thoughts on Foxconn announcing another $500 million investment in India to diversify its supply chain. The discussion then turns to iPhone sales and production in India and rumors of Apple looking to greatly expand production in the country. The update concludes with an examination of Twitter relaunching Twitter Blue with different pricing to reflect App Store revenue share percentages.
Hello everyone. Happy Monday.
With two weeks left of 2022 for many of us, we are continuing to run forward.
A quick reminder – Above Avalon Gifts are available. There are various gift options to choose from, starting at $90. Group discounts are also available. If you know someone who would enjoy Above Avalon, gifting a membership makes for a unique gift this holiday season. All of the gift options are available here. Thank you to those who purchased a gift last week.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
Foxconn Invests Another $500M in India
In an article published on December 9th, here’s South China Morning Post:
“Foxconn Technology Group, Apple’s biggest contractor, has invested US$500 million in its Indian subsidiary, as the Taiwanese manufacturing giant moves ahead to diversify its supply chain after China’s stringent pandemic controls disrupted production at its top iPhone plant in the central city of Zhengzhou.
The cash injection into Foxconn Hon Hai Technology India Mega Development Private Limited, made through Foxconn’s Singapore unit Foxconn Singapore Pte Ltd, involved the purchase of over 4 billion shares, according to a filing on Thursday to the Taiwan Stock Exchange…
Foxconn signed a US$300 million agreement with a Vietnamese developer in August to expand a new local plant, and plans to quadruple the workforce at its iPhone-making Indian plant over two years, according to reports by Reuters earlier this year…
Despite Foxconn’s move to diversify its manufacturing footprint, chairman Liu Young-way said in last month’s earnings call that the company planned to spend the largest portion of its increased capital spending next year in mainland China.”
Given the long list of issues at Foxconn’s Zhengzhou facilities, this article is getting a larger-than-usual reaction. Some are looking at the timing of Foxconn’s $500M Indian investment as the company sending a clear signal to Chinese officials.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
More on Project Titan, Transportation Problems, Apple Announces New Data Protections (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. There a few follow-ups related to Project Titan that are worth discussing in today's update. We will then turn to Apple’s user data protection announcements.
More on Project Titan
Apple does not have something equivalent to a “future bets” team or division tasked with coming up with futuristic technologies that may or may not be commercially viable. Instead, R&D dollars are funneled to teams and technology with a defined purpose. This is part of Apple’s collaborative culture consisting of small teams comprised of people from various disciplines and backgrounds who are given the autonomy to think differently.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple’s Electric Car Plans, Apple Car Design Questions, Apple’s Largest Risk (Daily Update)
We begin today’s update with Neil’s thoughts on the Bloomberg article about Project Titan. The discussion then turns to an in-depth examination of Apple Car from a design perspective. We conclude with a look at what Neil positions as Apple’s largest risk.
Hello everyone. Happy Wednesday. We have a lot to discuss so let’s jump right in.
Apple’s Electric Car Plans
Over at Bloomberg, here’s Mark Gurman:
“Apple Inc. has scaled back ambitious self-driving plans for its future electric vehicle and postponed the car’s target launch date by about a year to 2026, according to people with knowledge of the matter.
The car project, dubbed Titan inside the company, has been in limbo for the past several months as Apple executives grappled with the reality that its vision for a fully autonomous vehicle — without a steering wheel or pedals — isn’t feasible with current technology.
In a significant shift for the project, the company is now planning a less-ambitious design that will include a steering wheel and pedals and only support full autonomous capabilities on highways, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.”
Gurman’s article came across as something of a catch basin for everything we already know about Titan. Most of the details we have discussed in the past either in these updates or over at AboveAvalon.com. For example:
Apple VP of technology Kevin Lynch’s involvement (more detail here).
Apple’s vehicle proving grounds in Arizona (more detail here).
Former BMW executive and Canoo co-founder Ulrich Kranz’s involvement and Apple’s interest in the company’s unique approach to automobiles (more detail here).
Apple’s land purchases around San Jose International airport strongly pointing to being car related (more detail here). It's not clear if Apple still plans on putting affordable housing on some of the land, as Apple said it would back in 2019.
Canadian involvement regarding QNX (more detail here).
Lidar/radar usage, along with cameras.
Apple's R&D explosion over the years (more detail here).
Bloomberg once again tried to position its report as AAPL stock moving news, which is unfortunate.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple News+ Circulation Data, Goertek Runs Into AirPods Pro Trouble, The Case for Foxconn (Daily Update)
We begin today’s update with new data/estimates regarding circulation data for magazines that are part of Apple News+. The discussion then turns to Apple’s contract manufacturers. There was one follow-up from yesterday’s update worth pursuing regarding Foxconn. We look at Goertek running into trouble assembling AirPods Pro and how the news points to a broader truth found in doing business with Foxconn.
Hello everyone. It looks like we have some Project Titan news to discuss. Given the timing, we will do that tomorrow.
In today’s update, there was one follow-up worth pursuing regarding Foxconn. We will begin though with Apple News+.
Apple News+ Circulation Data
It’s been a while since we last talked about Apple News. The service launched in September 2015 with Apple News+ launching in March 2019. Audio was introduced in mid-2020.
Back in April 2020, Apple disclosed that Apple News had 125M monthly active users. The figure likely reflected a usage boost due to the pandemic. Clicking on an Apple News story in Today View, which continues to be a value-add proposition, brings you to the Apple News app. This is likely where many of the 125M Apple News users originate. With no subsequent updates to that user figure, we can assume it hasn’t change by much. It is a very high number given that Apple News availability is still limited to a handful of countries.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Additional Details on “iPhone City” Production, The WSJ Article on Apple Moving Out of China, Apple and Concentration Risk, Above Avalon Gifts 2022 (Daily Update)
We kick off today’s update with additional details regarding how iPhone production at Foxconn’s facilities at Zhengzhou is trending. The discussion goes over further refinement in Neil’s estimates/assumptions for the shortage in iPhone sales in FY1Q23 arising from the Zhengzhou protests/riots. The update concludes with a look at the WSJ’s article about iPhone production in China. After going over why the WSJ’s headline is misleading, we discuss Apple’s product assembly strategy.
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week.
After a record volume year for gifts in 2021, Above Avalon Gifts for the 2022 holiday season are now available. The full list of gift options are found at the end of today’s update and here.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
Additional Details on “iPhone City” Production
In an article published late Sunday, here’s Reuters:
“Apple supplier Foxconn expects its COVID-hit Zhengzhou plant in China to resume full production around late December to early January, a Foxconn source said on Monday, after worker unrest last month disrupted the world's biggest iPhone factory.
The Zhengzhou plant has been grappling with strict COVID-19 restrictions that have fuelled discontent among workers over conditions at the factory. Production of the Apple device was disrupted ahead of Christmas and January's Lunar New Year holidays, with many workers either having to isolate to combat the spread of the virus or fleeing the plant.
Following the November unrest, that saw workers clash with security personnel, Foxconn could have seen more than 30% of the Zhengzhou site's November production affected, Reuters reported last month citing a source familiar with the matter. Foxconn hasn't disclosed details of the impact of the disruption on its production plans or finances.
‘The capacity is now being gradually resumed’ with new staff hiring under way, said the person with direct knowledge of the matter. The person declined to the named as the information was private.
‘If the recruitment goes smoothly, it could take around three to four weeks to resume full production,’ the person said, pointing to a period around late December to early January.”
Given Foxconn’s recent attempts at spinning negative news, we need to approach this latest reporting with some skepticism. Foxconn has reason to downplay the potential production impact at Zhengzhou resulting from weeks of employee unrest.
With that said, the Reuters report didn’t come across to me as overly positive. Instead, Reuters’ Foxconn source pointed to full production at Zhengzhou still being a ways off.
Last week, we assumed “Apple loses three weeks of Zhengzhou production [in November], followed by four to five weeks of reduced production.” Based on Reuters’ newest article and having more time to dive a bit more into the granular details, we can refine that assumption into:
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Sonos 4Q22 Earnings, Spotify Subscriber Trends (Daily Update)
We kick off today’s update by looking at the latest earnings release from Sonos. The discussion then turns to Spotify’s earnings with a focus on the company’s subscriber trends.
Hello everyone. Welcome to December. This month is going to fly by.
Two quick notes:
1) The Elon Musk saga took another twist yesterday. Tim Cook invited Musk to Apple Park. This was the first time Musk and Cook have talked with each other. According to Musk, "Tim was clear that Apple never considered [removing Twitter from the App Store]." Musk had just said the opposite - that Apple had "threatened to withhold Twitter from its App Store" without explanation – two days earlier. Musk’s initial tweet never sounded accurate to me. It’s not clear what Cook actually told Musk while walking around Apple Park yesterday. The following tweet that I wrote yesterday sums up the situation:
2) Looking back over the past two months of updates, we have gone over 10 earnings reports from various Apple competitors.
Warner Bros. Discovery (Nov 16)
Roku (Nov 10)
Peloton (11/10)
Disney (11/9)
Amazon (11/8)
Microsoft (11/8)
Meta (11/2)
Apple (10/28, 10/31, 11/1)
Alphabet (10/26)
Netflix (10/19)
Nike (10/3)
In today’s update, we will go over two earnings reports that have been on my list: Sonos and Spotify. Sonos was one of the last companies to report earnings. As for Spotify, it’s been six months since we took a closer look at the company’s subscriber trends.
Sonos 4Q22 Earnings
Sonos reported FY4Q22 earnings two weeks ago. Management had previously warned that things were going to look funky with demand slowing a bit over the summer and the company placing what ended up being poorly-timed bets on inventory.
4Q22 revenue was down 12% to $316M.
Gross margins dropped by 720 basis points (to 39.2%). Management claims the drop is temporary.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
The Foxconn Protests in China, Impact on Apple, COVID Protests Worsen in China (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Today’s update will examine the Foxconn/COVID protests in China. Let’s jump right in.
The Foxconn Protests in China
In an article published on November 24th, here’s CBS News:
“Foxconn, the electronics manufacturing company that assembles Apple's iPhones, apologized Thursday for the pay dispute that triggered massive employee protests, and violent police pushback, at a factory in central China where anti-virus controls slowed production.
Mounting unrest at the Zhengzhou factory has persisted for at least a month, since thousands of employees staged a walkout in October over what they said were unsafe working conditions linked to the spread of COVID-19. All of this comes as China grapples with a spike in virus infections, seen especially in highly populated cities.
Foxconn hired a slate of new employees following the exodus. Accusations that the company unlawfully altered its policies for incoming workers, who say they were hired with the promise of higher pay than they are actually receiving, led to protests at the factory.
Videos shared on social media earlier this week appeared to show one particularly large demonstration involving thousands of people in Zhengzhou, wearing masks and facing rows of police officers wearing protective suits and holding riot shields. Police kicked and hit a protester with clubs after the person grabbed hold of a metal pole that was being used to strike him. Witnesses also said that employees at the iPhone factory were beaten and detained amid the protests.”
Zhengzhou is nicknamed “iPhone City” as it’s the largest hub of iPhone production in the world. Estimates peg Foxconn’s facilities in the region at being responsible for 50% of iPhone production.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Elon Musk Goes After Apple…Again, Revisiting the Apple/Parler Controversy, Apple vs. Twitter (Daily Update)
We kick off today’s update with Neil’s thoughts on Elon Musk going after Apple yet again. The update then turns to the Apple/Parler controversy from 2021 which provides insights as to how Apple is approaching Musk’s Twitter. We conclude with what Neil suspects is actually going on between Apple and Twitter as it pertains to the App Store.
Hello everyone. Let's jump right into today's update.
Elon Musk Goes After Apple…Again
Back on October 27th, Elon Musk officially bought Twitter. For the past month, there has been a nonstop stream of chaos and surprises come from Musk and his small group of friends brought in to come up with a working strategy for the company.
While Musk has made plenty of unforced errors out of the gate - primarily by moving way too fast - the broader strategy of Twitter betting on paid subscriptions makes sense. (Musk needs to think much broader than just $8/month for what amounts to fake verification.) Ad-funded business models have come under pressure due to the economy and competitive forces. Revenue diversification would be a long-term positive for Twitter.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
More on Apple’s Buyback Plan, It’s All About Apple Free Cash Flow, Iger vs. Chapek (Daily Update)
We begin today’s update with a few additional takeaways from Neil’s new report on Apple’s share buyback program. The discussion then turns to a key different between Bob Iger and Bob Chapek and what it means for Disney’s approach to blockbuster movies.
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. It’s good to be back after a few days off.
The newest Above Avalon Report was published last Wednesday. You can find “Apple’s Share Buyback: What Comes Next?” in your inbox or via the archive (here). You can use this link to have friends/co-workers/family sign up as members before accessing the report. As a reminder, an audio version of the report was also recorded and released to members with the podcast add-on attached to their membership. To get the add-on, fill out this form.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
More on Apple’s Buyback Plan
The newest Above Avalon Report examined where things currently stand with Apple’s share buyback program and what the future will likely bring.
In recent years, somewhat of an understanding has taken hold when it comes to Apple’s buyback. Wall Street is not as doubtful about Apple’s ability to fund both share buyback and its investment opportunities (capex, R&D, M&A). This doesn’t mean that Apple’s share buyback lacks unknown.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple’s Share Buyback: What Comes Next? (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of Apple’s buyback strategy in relation to its net cash neutral goal.
Written by Neil Cybart
Apple has the largest share buyback program in the world. With $90 billion put into buyback in just the past 12 months, the company’s buyback strategy continues to draw questions.
What is Apple’s ultimate objective in repurchasing shares?
What will happen to Apple’s buyback program once the company reaches its net cash neutral goal?
This report examines Apple’s share repurchase program, including the technical details and mechanisms behind buyback, the motivating factors for continued share repurchases, and the most likely path forward from a capital management perspective once Apple reaches its net cash neutral goal.
What Are Share Repurchases?
Share repurchases are the reverse mechanism of a company issuing stock. A company’s board of directors authorizes the use of cash on the balance sheet to buy back shares from existing shareholders. In most cases, repurchased shares are retired and taken out of circulation, thereby reducing a company’s share count.
Technical Details
There are three ways for a company to buy back shares:
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this report. Members can read the full report here. An audio version of this report is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Reports are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.
Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.
Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching a podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.
Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Disney Fires Bob Chapek, Bob Iger’s Return, Disney M&A (Daily Update)
We kick things off with the big news from Disney. The discussion begins with Neil’s thoughts on why Bob Chapek got fired and what it tells us about Disney’s board. Attention then turns to the most surprising part of Iger returning as Disney CEO. We conclude with a look at Disney M&A and how Iger as CEO impacts the probability of Disney pursuing content M&A.
Hello everyone. Happy Monday.
We have big news from Disney that we will focus on today. There is a lot to talk about.
A new Above Avalon Report will be published on Wednesday. All members will receive the report via email when it is published. For members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership, the audio version of the report will be uploaded shortly after publication. As a reminder, the podcast add-on provides access to two private podcasts: Above Avalon Daily (for these updates) and Above Avalon Reports (for the reports). They are two distinct podcasts. If you have questions about the podcast add-on, check out this page or reach out to me.
Let's jump into today's update.
Disney Fires Bob Chapek
In what will turn out to be one of the top stories in the media space this year, here’s Disney:
“The Walt Disney Company announced today that Robert A. Iger is returning to lead Disney as Chief Executive Officer, effective immediately. Mr. Iger, who spent more than four decades at the Company, including 15 years as its CEO, has agreed to serve as Disney’s CEO for two years, with a mandate from the Board to set the strategic direction for renewed growth and to work closely with the Board in developing a successor to lead the Company at the completion of his term. Mr. Iger succeeds Bob Chapek, who has stepped down from his position.
‘We thank Bob Chapek for his service to Disney over his long career, including navigating the company through the unprecedented challenges of the pandemic,’ said Susan Arnold, Chairman of the Board. ‘The Board has concluded that as Disney embarks on an increasingly complex period of industry transformation, Bob Iger is uniquely situated to lead the Company through this pivotal period.’
‘Mr. Iger has the deep respect of Disney’s senior leadership team, most of whom he worked closely with until his departure as executive chairman 11 months ago, and he is greatly admired by Disney employees worldwide–all of which will allow for a seamless transition of leadership,’ she said.”
The following chart likely played a major role in this announcement.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Additional Thoughts on Apple’s MLS Season Pass, Playing Devil’s Advocate With Warner Bros. Discovery (Daily Update)
In today’s update, Neil examines a few follow-ups to yesterday’s discussion. We begin with how success for Apple and its MLS Season Pass streaming service will be measured. The discussion then turns to Warner Bros. Discovery and the ongoing rumors that David Zaslav is ultimately trying to sell the company. Neil puts his devil’s advocate hat on to examine the argument for Warner Bros. Discovery M&A.
Hello everyone. There are a few follow-ups to yesterday’s discussion that are worth pursuing in today’s update. Let’s jump right in.
Additional Thoughts on Apple’s MLS Season Pass
What will success look like for Apple with MLS Season Pass, its upcoming paid streaming service for U.S. soccer?
Soccer in the U.S. is not the NBA or NFL. It’s certainly not English Premier League either. Those aren’t controversial statements. Based on viewership data, U.S. soccer has 500,000 to 600,000 regular fans. When considering other countries, we can add a little bit more to the total. The NFL sees multiple times (i.e. 10+) that number with the NBA and English Premier League at more like a few times over that range on a per game basis.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple Unveils MLS Season Pass, Warner Bros. Discovery 3Q22 Earnings, David Zaslav’s Big Bet (Daily Update)
We kick things off by going over new details regarding Apple’s upcoming streaming service for Major League Soccer (MLS). Neil compares Apple’s subscription pricing to his estimates and what it suggests about Apple’s subscriber goals. The discussion then turns to Warner Bros. Discovery 3Q22 earnings and the bet Neil sees CEO David Zaslav making in the video content space.
Hello everyone. Happy Wednesday.
Today’s update will have a content streaming focus. We will begin with Apple providing details on its upcoming Major League Soccer (MLS) streaming service.
Let’s jump right in.
Apple Unveils MLS Season Pass
Back in June, Apple made waves by announcing a 10-year streaming rights deal with Major League Soccer (U.S.) Apple was attracted to the idea of having all matches available in one location. It’s a novel idea in an industry that is used to disjointed distribution and things like blackouts.
Earlier today, Apple provided via press release many of the missing details about the standalone streaming service which will be called MLS Season Pass.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Amazon Looking to Scale Back Devices Division, Bloomberg BusinessWeek’s Profile on Apple Retail, Apple Retail and Upselling (Daily Update)
We kick things off with Neil’s reaction to news of Amazon looking at a major cost review that includes scaling back its devices division. The discussion then turns to Bloomberg Businessweek’s big profile on Apple Store employee unionization. We go over what the article was missing and then examine the most troubling allegation found in the piece.
Hello everyone. Let's jump right into today's update.
Amazon Looking to Scale Back Devices Division
In an article published on November 10th, here are Dana Mattioli, Sebastian Herrera, and Jessica Toonkel for the WSJ:
“Amazon. com Inc. Chief Executive Andy Jassy is leading a cost-cutting review of the tech giant and paring back on businesses at the company that haven’t been profitable, according to people familiar with the matter.
As part of the monthslong cost-cutting review, Amazon’s leadership is closely evaluating its Alexa business, according to some of the people. The business has more than 10,000 employees and is a major recipient of investment capital, some of the people said. Internal documents viewed by The Wall Street Journal show that in some recent years Amazon’s devices unit, which includes Alexa, had an operating loss of more than $5 billion a year.”
Many people will read this article and conclude that Big Tech must see something on the economic horizon that other companies aren’t seeing yet. After years of heavy investment and betting big on devices and technology including Alexa, it took fears of a recession for Amazon to approach things differently.
My suspicion is that there is more to the story.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple Adjusts TV+ Strategy, Apple’s Twist to Licensed Video Content, Zuckerberg Pulls the Plug on Meta Smartwatches (Daily Update)
In today's update, we examine a subtle yet intriguing strategy adjustment to Apple TV+. The discussion then turns to Mark Zuckerberg pulling the plug on Meta’s smartwatch plans. We look at why the news came to Neil as a surprise.
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week.
We will jump into today’s update with Apple TV+.
Apple Adjusts TV+ Strategy
Over the past few weeks, we have seen Apple unveil a subtle yet intriguing strategy adjustment to Apple TV+. For the first time, Apple has made licensed video content available next to its original video content within Apple TV+ for paying subscribers.
The company’s approach to licensed content deserves closer examination.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Roku 3Q22 Earnings, Peloton 1Q23 Earnings (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. In today's update, we will focus on earnings from two of the smaller companies playing in the tech arena (Roku and Peloton). While Roku is an Apple competitor, Peloton remains a good source for assessing how consumers are thinking about different forms of connected fitness.
Let's jump right in.
Roku 3Q22 Earnings
Roku reported earnings back on November 2nd.
With macro issues taking a big toll on Roku's advertising business, the company's user growth and engagement appear to be rare bright spots. We say “appear” as it’s difficult to get comfortable regarding how streaming companies define and measure engagement. According to Roku, an active account is anyone who has streamed something in the past 30 days. It's easy to see how that definition offers quite a bit of wiggle room for volatility.
As shown below, Roku has seen a small rebound in new user growth (on a TTM basis).
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Ranking Big Tech’s 3Q22 Performance, Zuckerberg Announces Major Round of Layoffs, Disney 4Q22 Earnings (Daily Update)
In today’s update, we go over Neil’s rankings for how Big Tech performed in 3Q22. We discuss Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. The discussion then turns to Zuckerberg’s drastic move to reduce Meta’s workforce by 13%. We conclude with a closer look at Disney’s earnings. Disney management is making one strategic mistake with Disney+.
Hello everyone. Let's jump right into today's update.
Ranking Big Tech’s 3Q22 Performance
CY3Q22 was a mixed bag for Big Tech (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta). Macro issues are not being felt evenly. At the same time, competition is impacting some companies more than others. It’s telling that maybe the biggest surprise to come out of 3Q22 earnings season came in November, after everyone reported,
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Amazon 3Q22 Earnings, The Shift in Selling Amazon Prime, Microsoft 1Q23 Earnings (Daily Update)
In today’s update, we wrap up our earnings reviews for the four tech giants (and Meta) by circling back to cover Amazon’s and Microsoft's CY3Q22 earnings. To recap, these are the dates when we covered earnings from the others:
The five companies represent 21% of the S&P 500 index. The discussion includes Neil’s thoughts on the most interesting takeaways from the reports.
Amazon 3Q22 Earnings
Amazon reported 3Q22 results back on October 27th, one day prior to Apple’s earnings.
Overall, the quarter was more negative than what the company reported three months earlier.
Amazon has stood out among Big Tech for facing the most direct impact from macro issues.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple Warns on iPhone Supply, The “iPhone City” COVID Timeline, Revisiting iPhone 14 and 14 Pro Sales (Daily Update)
We begin with Apple issuing an iPhone supply warning due to COVID lockdowns and restrictions at the largest iPhone production facility in China. After going over Neil’s thoughts on the news, we take a closer look at the timeline of events to obtain a better handle of the situation and what Apple may have known and when. The discussion concludes with a look at how the lockdown may impact 1Q23 iPhone sales.
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. Let’s jump right in.
Apple Warns on iPhone Supply
In a press release issued yesterday, here's Apple:
“COVID-19 restrictions have temporarily impacted the primary iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max assembly facility located in Zhengzhou, China. The facility is currently operating at significantly reduced capacity. As we have done throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, we are prioritizing the health and safety of the workers in our supply chain.
We continue to see strong demand for iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max models. However, we now expect lower iPhone 14 Pro and iPhone 14 Pro Max shipments than we previously anticipated and customers will experience longer wait times to receive their new products.
We are working closely with our supplier to return to normal production levels while ensuring the health and safety of every worker.”
Zhengzhou is responsible for an estimated 50% of Apple’s iPhone production. While Foxconn’s smaller facilities in China, including Shenzhen, battled COVID outbreaks and lockdowns earlier this year, Zhengzhou had managed to escape major lockdowns and interruptions until now.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.