Apple 2022 10-K Takeaways (Daily Update)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes Neil’s key takeaways from Apple's annual 10-K filing for 2022. The update covers 19 Apple financial topics.
Hello everyone.
We conclude our Apple 4Q22 earnings review with Apple’s 10-K filing for FY2022. Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q.
Apple 2022 10-K Takeaways
Share Buyback. Here is quarterly data from the past three years for Apple's share buyback via open market transactions:
4Q19: $17.9B. Average repurchase price per share: $52.20.
1Q20: $10.0B. Average repurchase price per share: $62.55.
2Q20: $18.5B. Average repurchase price per share: $71.67.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Meta 3Q22 Earnings, Meta’s Fragile Bridge, The Big (Meta) Picture (Daily Update)
In today's update, we will go over Meta’s CY3Q22 results which ended being just as much about industry developments as it did Meta’s performance. In particular, we go over Neil’s thoughts on two problems found with Mark Zuckerberg’s plan on funding future bets and the ultimate bet Zuckerberg is making here.
Happy Wednesday.
Late last week, Apple released its 2022 10-K (58 pages). The tentative plan is to go through the key takeaways from the financial filing tomorrow.
In today's update, we will go over Meta’s CY3Q22 results which ended being just as much about industry developments as it did Meta’s performance.
Let’s jump right in.
Meta 3Q22 Earnings
Last Wednesday, Meta reported 3Q22 earnings.
Here is an earnings recap table comparing Meta's numbers to those of Apple and Alphabet:
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
\Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings Q&A With Analysts (Daily Update)
Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 4Q22 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call.
Hello everyone.
Last Friday, we went over the big picture and numbers from Apple’s 3Q22 earnings release. Yesterday, we examined Mac and iPad sales. In today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s earnings Q&A session with analysts.
After recapping each question and answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my thoughts / response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call.
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, The Motley Fool offers a written transcript here.
iPhone
Q: How does iPhone 14 and 14 Pro demand look?
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter, What’s Going On With iPad Sales?, Charting Apple’s Ecosystem Growth (Daily Update)
In today's update, we will continue our Apple 4Q22 earnings review with a few granular takeaways. In particular, we look beyond the Mac and iPad numbers. Tomorrow, our focus will be geared toward everything that was discussed on management's earnings call.
Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter
Apple reported $11.5B of Mac revenue in 4Q22. It was a quarterly record that exceeded my estimate by a significant $1.5B. Prior to 4Q22, the previous Mac revenue record was $10.9B (in 1Q22).
Diving deeper into 4Q22 Mac results, things become more complicated. We may be seeing something equivalent to a near-term plateau, or growth air pocket, for Mac sales.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
My Initial Reaction to Apple Earnings, Apple 4Q22: By the Numbers, Breaking Down Apple’s Guidance (Daily Update)
Today’s update will be dedicated to going over Apple’s 4Q22 results and management commentary. The idea is to keep things broad today and look at the big picture, in addition to the financial results. The discussion will continue next week as we move beyond the numbers to look at the granular takeaways.
My Initial Reaction to Apple Earnings
Apple went into this earnings season possessing the most formidable ecosystem of devices and services in the world. Despite facing major FX headwinds, Apple’s ecosystem remained on track in 4Q22. The company reported all-around solid 4Q22 results. The few areas of weakness (iPad and Services came in below my expectations) were offset by iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch sales strength.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Alphabet 3Q22 Earnings, Three Google Yellow Flags, What Apple May Say About FY1Q23 (Daily Update)
We begin today’s update with Neil’s thoughts on Alphabet’s 3Q22 earnings. The discussion then turns to three yellow flags found in Google’s numbers. We conclude with a few of Neil’s closing remarks heading into Apple’s earnings release. The update includes access to Neil’s updated Apple earnings model.
Hello everyone.
As a reminder, there won’t be a daily update published tomorrow due to Apple earnings. Instead, the update will be pushed to Friday. In today's update, we will conclude our Apple earnings preview discussion.
CY3Q22 earnings season is in full swing. Tesla reported results a few days ago. Alphabet, Microsoft, and Spotify reported earnings yesterday. Meta reported results today.
The game plan is to go through these earnings reports with an eye out for trends and developments that will either have a direct impact on Apple or cause Apple competitors to change / modify strategies. We will kick things off with Alphabet earnings.
Alphabet 3Q22 Earnings
Heading into Alphabet’s earnings release, consensus was already aware of various headwinds impacting digital advertising trends. Macro issues were clearly hitting advertising revenue growth. In addition, temporary behavioral change caused by the pandemic was still producing an overhang on year-over-year revenue growth metrics. The unknown was found with how competition, namely TikTok and Apple, were impacting business trends.
In a nutshell, Alphabet’s 3Q22 numbers were alarming. Revenue growth has imploded.
The following exhibit contains the primary financial metrics for Alphabet’s 3Q22.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings, My Apple 4Q22 Estimates, Apple Raises Apple Music and Apple TV+ Pricing (Daily Update)
Happy Tuesday.
We will go over my updated Apple earnings model tomorrow. It's not quite ready for publication. As a reminder, with Apple reporting earnings on Thursday, here is the daily update schedule for the rest of the week:
Wednesday: Regular update
Thursday: No update
Friday: Special Friday update dedicated to reviewing Apple earnings
Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings
My expectation is for Apple to report OK results on Thursday. While FX, inflation, and ongoing supply chain issues will negatively impact numbers, Apple should be able to comfortably exceed the all-time FY4Q revenue record ($83B is the current record).
FY4Q presents a few challenges for Apple financial modeling and earnings analysis as results reflect demand and supply trends 1) leading up to the critical September product launches and 2) a portion of the product launches themselves. For Apple, those two periods can end up representing distinct demand environments.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Apple’s Head of Industrial Design to Leave Company, Revisiting Apple Design Turnover, Apple Industrial Design Succession (Daily Update)
Hello everyone.
This is shaping up to be a busy week. Apple reports FY4Q22 earnings (results from July to September) on Thursday. As with previous quarters, Apple’s earnings release timing will result in Thursday’s daily update being pushed to Friday.
Here is how the daily updates schedule looks:
Monday: Regular update
Tuesday: Apple earnings preview
Wednesday: Regular update
Thursday: No update
Friday: Apple earnings review
Let’s jump into today’s update.
Apple’s Head of Industrial Design to Leave Company
Over at the WSJ, here’s Sarah Needleman:
“Apple Inc.’s head of industrial design is leaving the company, marking another significant loss in the department responsible for the iconic look and feel of its iPhones, Macs and other popular consumer products.
Evans Hankey took over leadership of the group three years ago, filling a void created after longtime chief design officer Jony Ive departed to start his own design firm in 2019.
An Apple spokesman said the company is well equipped to continue onward without Ms. Hankey, who will temporarily stick around as it works through the change in leadership.
‘The senior design team has strong leaders with decades of experience,’ the spokesman said. Bloomberg earlier reported the news of Ms. Hankey’s departure.”
In a sign of how few people are familiar with Apple design and its leaders, a number of inaccuracies have been circulating online about this news.
A few publications, including the WSJ, claimed Evans Hankey was departing Apple after just three years. That is false. Hankey has been part of Apple’s industrial design group for nearly two decades.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
The Rationale for the New 10.9-inch iPad, The Case for iPad SE, The Hoopla Surrounding Magic Keyboard Folio (Daily Update)
Hello everyone.
In today’s update, we will go over a few things that have been on my mind regarding the new iPad.
The Rationale for the New 10.9-inch iPad
On Tuesday, Apple announced an all-new $449 10.9-inch iPad (10th gen).
One question that has been gaining steam: Why didn’t Apple position the new iPad as a true iPad (9th gen) successor at $329? Apple’s decision to sell a $449 iPad, along with the $329 iPad (9th gen) has led some to say the iPad line is becoming complicated and confusing again.
Others want to know why the iPad (10th gen) received an all-new keyboard accessory while the updated iPad Pro models didn’t. We will address the keyboard question shortly.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Netflix 3Q22 Earnings, Netflix Wants a New Narrative, Netflix's ARPU Mission (Daily Update)
Hello everyone.
We are going to talk more about the iPad line tomorrow. There are a growing number of questions as to what Apple announced (and didn’t announce) yesterday regarding the iPad. We will go over where I think Apple may take the iPad line from here.
Today’s update will be dedicated to Netflix earnings. As the company with the most paid subs in video land, at least until Disney provides its updated subscriber total, Netflix results can provide insights as to how the paid video industry is evolving.
Let’s jump right in.
Netflix 3Q22 Earnings
Netflix successfully played Wall Street's expectations game. The 3Q22 paid subscriber guidance that management gave three months ago was very weak. Management was essentially calling for no subscriber growth on a global basis (+1.0M) despite having a strong quarter from a video content perspective.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Thoughts on Apple’s New and Updated Products (Apple TV, iPad, iPad Pro) - Daily Update
Hello everyone.
In this special edition of the daily update, we will discuss Apple’s various product announcements from earlier today.
Thoughts on Apple’s New and Updated Products (Apple TV, iPad, iPad Pro)
Heading into October, signs were pointing to Apple having a few more product announcements ready to go for 2022. The question was whether Apple would host another event at the end of October or unveil new products via press release. The latter strategy was used by Apple during the early months of the pandemic.
We now have an answer.
Earlier today, Apple unveiled via three press releases the following:
Apple TV 4K (3rd gen) - smaller form factor (volume), new chip, revised pricing
iPad (10th gen) - all-new design aimed at students
Updated iPad Pro models - new M2 chip and a new Apple Pencil hover feature
We will discuss each product in detail.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
4Q22 iPhone Installed Base, iPhone Installed Base Growth Trajectory (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. Let's jump right in.
4Q22 iPhone Installed Base
Last week, we went over my estimates for the Apple Watch installed base as of the end of September. Today, we will discuss the iPhone installed base. It’s been a year since we examined the issue.
Before we go any further, it is important to go over definitions. Unlike the Apple Watch installed base, Apple has provided an iPhone installed base figure from time to time. Apple defines the iPhone installed base as the number of iPhones in the wild. My definition is slightly different - the number of people using an iPhone. This includes both consumers who bought a new iPhone from Apple or a third-party retailer as well people using pre-owned or hand-me-down iPhones. If you use an iPhone, regardless of where it came from, you are part of the iPhone installed base.
Apple’s installed base definition will lead to a slightly higher iPhone total versus my definition. For today’s discussion, the difference won't change any observations or outcomes. There aren't many people using more than one iPhone.
The methodology used to derive my iPhone installed base estimate is similar to the one used for the Apple Watch installed base. Accordingly, we won’t spend time going over the steps. The iPhone business is broken into user cohorts/buckets distinguished by the year (2007 to 2022) they purchased their first new iPhone from Apple or a third-party retailer.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Measuring Apple Watch’s Sales Potential, Apple Contemplating Apple TV Ad Play, ByteDance Planning Spotify Battle (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. We will kick off today's update with one follow-up to yesterday's Apple Watch discussion.
Measuring Apple Watch’s Sales Potential
Yesterday, we talked about Apple Watch sales and adoption trends up to the end of September 2022.
As for looking forward, there is no near-term ceiling as to the percent of iPhone users who will embrace Apple Watch. The Apple Watch ushered in a paradigm shift in computing, even if consensus still isn't willing to acknowledge the shift. Since wearables are capable of making technology more personal, there will be a natural evolution involving consumers gradually finding spots in their lives for wearables.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
4Q22 Apple Watch Installed Base, Apple Watch Adoption Figures (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Happy Wednesday.
One quick follow-up to yesterday’s update regarding the Pixel 7 and 7 Pro.
When it comes to assessing Google’s odds of finding traction with the Pixel 7 and 7 Pro, the following screenshot of AT&T's website highlights a big obstacle:
AT&T's bet on Apple is nothing new. Instead, the mobile carriers have been placing even bigger bets on iPhone and Apple in recent years. The logic is straightforward. Consumers want iPhones and carriers don't want customers to look elsewhere for the best iPhone deals. The lack of carrier support/promotion leaves Google appealing to die-hard Android users who have become disenchanted with Samsung hardware. At least in the U.S., that's not a huge market.
4Q22 Apple Watch Installed Base
It's been a year since we went over my estimates for the Apple Watch installed base. Given different definitions of user bases and installed bases, my definition of the Apple Watch installed base is the number of people wearing an Apple Watch on any given day.
Unlike the iPad and Mac, we don’t have to worry about shared settings where one Apple Watch is shared among a number of people. We also don’t have to be concerned with the very small number of people who wear or use multiple Apple Watches.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Thoughts on Google’s Pixel Event, Google Finally Takes Smartwatches Seriously, Google vs. Amazon Battle (Above Avalon Daily)
Hello everyone.
In today’s update, we will go over my impressions of Google’s big hardware event for fall 2022. Let’s jump right in.
Thoughts on Google’s Pixel Event
At least based on what was said on stage at its Made by Google 2022 event (video available here), Google corrected some of its big hardware mistakes and messaging from the past few years.
Google now publicly recognizes the force smartwatches truly represent.
The major themes of screens and device ecosystems were recognized.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Tim Cook Gives Another AR Tease, Apple Talks Dynamic Island, Peloton CEO Asks for Six More Months (Daily Update)
Hello everyone.
Google held its Pixel hardware event today. We will talk about the event next week. Let’s jump right in.
Tim Cook Gives Another AR Tease
Last week, Cook and a number of Apple executives toured some of Apple’s European operations. Cook also did some interviews.
Here’s Bright (via translate):
“Cook has called augmented reality (AR) the biggest technological promise for the future for years. With AR, virtual objects are shown over the real world, for example via the camera of a smartphone or through smart glasses. Cook told students [at the University of Naples Federico II] that soon we will look back on a life without AR as we are now looking back on a life without a smartphone, or without the internet. ‘It won't be that long,’ Cook said.
In conversation with Bright, he went into more detail about this. ‘AR apps are already in the App Store, but the possibilities will go much, much further,’ Cook told Bright. ‘I think AR is a profound technology that will affect everything. Imagine suddenly being able to teach with AR and demonstrate things that way. Or medically, and so on. Like I said, we are really going to look back and think about how we once lived without AR.’"
Looking over the past six years of Cook’s comments about AR (The Verge complied every public comment Cook has made about AR up to 2021 here), there has been a clear shift in Cook’s tone.
Back in 2016 and 2017, Cook talked about how it will take a while to see AR technology hit mainstream.
Beginning in late 2018, Cook started to say things like we will “wonder how we ever lived without [AR].”
In 2020 and 2021, Cook went further to say AR was the next big thing.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Growing Fallout Surrounding Google Stadia Shutdown, Revisiting the Alphabet Structure, YouTube Testing 4K as Premium Feature (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Yesterday's update regarding Google pulling the plug on Stadia led me to pursue a few additional points when it came to Google and Alphabet. Let's jump right in.
Growing Fallout Surrounding Google Stadia Shutdown
Over at TechCrunch, here’s Devin Coldewey:
“There’s a lot of chatter right now about the ‘surprise’ shutdown of Stadia, Google’s game-streaming service. While it’s true that rivals like Geforce Now and Xbox Cloud Gaming presented entrenched competition and that Google knows next to nothing about gaming, the main trouble — as with most of its products these days — is that no one trusted them to keep it alive longer than a year or two.
It really is that simple: No one trusts Google. It has exhibited such poor understanding of what people want, need and will pay for that at this point, people are wary of investing in even its more popular products…
And here’s where it was really doomed. Because while people will happily drop a couple bucks here and there for a Google service, no one is going to pay hundreds for something they have a sneaking feeling is going to be completely worthless in short order.
Google’s legacy of killing products is infamous. Its twists and turns on priorities, branding, standards and everything else have made it clear to everyone that they cannot be trusted with anything beyond their core services, and they even like to screw those up now and then.”
Coldewey concluded by saying Google has permanently destroyed the trust of stakeholders (developers / game studios / media / creators / consumers etc.) that would be needed to get new products off the ground.
Coldewey raised a number of good points. He was not alone in sharing such feelings either. Various tech publications ran similar opinion pieces regarding Google trust issues. While there is nothing wrong with killing or ending a bad product or business, if a company becomes a habitual product killer, customer trust will suffer. A very good argument can be made that Amazon is suffering from a similar dynamic especially when it comes to devices. In both cases, we have companies conducting too much R&D out in public.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Foxconn Hints at Robust iPhone Demand, Google Pulls Plug on Stadia, Zillow Adopts Apple Maps Look Around (Daily Update)
Hello everyone.
One quick clarification regarding yesterday’s story about Tesla deliveries.
I wrote: "More attention will be placed on the year-over-year growth in [Tesla] deliveries. If that figure continues to slow, the number of demand questions will rise."
One of those questions would include whether or not the slowdown in Tesla deliveries is tied to production headwinds. This is why it will be important to monitor how Tesla is performing in terms of build rates at existing factories and building new production facilities around the world.
Today’s update will focus on three news stories that jumped out at me. Lete’s jump right in.
Foxconn Hints at Robust iPhone Demand
Here’s Reuters:
“Taiwan's Foxconn, the world's largest contract electronics maker, said on Tuesday it was "cautiously optimistic" about its fourth-quarter revenue outlook after reporting record-breaking September sales.
Like other global manufacturers, the Taiwanese company, a major Apple Inc supplier, could be vulnerable to slowing consumer tech demand as the global economy faces the possibility of recession and inflation soars, especially in Europe and the United States.
But the company said in a statement it was ‘cautiously optimistic’ about the outlook for the final three months of 2022, and maintained its full-year guidance of growth given in August, from previous guidance of flattish revenue.
‘However, the dynamics of inflation, the pandemic, and the supply chain still need to be closely monitored,’ it said.
Formally known as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co Ltd, the company said revenue for September and the third quarter grew 40.39% and 24.4% on the year, respectively, both hitting record highs and beating its own expectations.”
Caution is always needed when reading too much into what any one company from Apple’s supply chain and assembly apparatus has to say. With that said,
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Nike 1Q23 Earnings, Tesla 3Q22 Vehicle Deliveries, Wall Street's Apple Anxiety (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. Today's update will kick off with operating results from two consumer-oriented companies (Nike and Tesla). We will then bring Apple into the discussion when going over broader observations and takeaways.
Nike 1Q23 Earnings
Here’s the WSJ:
“Nike Inc. has said it didn’t have enough inventory to meet consumer demand for the past two years. Now, it has too much—and the sneaker giant needs to step up discounts to clear out items.
The company on Thursday said inventories rose 44% to $9.7 billion in the latest quarter, and higher discounts and freight costs squeezed profit margins. Executives said they would mark down more goods, especially apparel, heading into the holidays.
Shares of Nike tumbled about 10% in late trading following its quarterly report.
The results are the latest sign of how rapidly retailers and manufacturers of everything from fertilizer to furniture have found themselves with a surplus of goods, after two years where they scrambled to have enough to sell during the pandemic.
‘We are taking decisive action to clear excess inventory,’ Nike finance chief Matthew Friend said during a call Thursday to discuss the latest results."
Anecdotally, my most recent Nike purchase, which included some summer apparel, arrived faster than any previous Nike order. It would appear that whichever regional hub my items shipped from had plenty of inventory with the shipping company also having the required capacity as well.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
The Big Themes from Amazon’s Hardware Event, Apple Pushes Back Against TSMC Price Hike, Thursday Q&A (Daily Update)
Happy Thursday.
We will start today’s update with Amazon, then turn to Apple’s supply chain, and conclude with a new installment of Thursday Q&A.
Let’s jump right in.
The Big Themes from Amazon’s Hardware Event
In a plain vanilla tech presentation with a style reminiscent of something from the late 2010s, Amazon announced a number of new and updated devices. The presentation is available here (via YouTube).
Ambient Intelligence was the central marketing theme used to connect everything together. This is hardly a new theme. Instead, we have heard versions of it from Amazon and Google for years.
Amazon pointed to three key product attributes of its “Ambient Intelligence” product strategy:
Intuitive
Proactive
Personalized
We will revisit this point shortly.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.