Neil Cybart 9/19/24 Neil Cybart 9/19/24

Addressing iPhone Pessimism

In today’s update, we will take a closer look at some of the iPhone pessimism that materialized following Apple’s “It’s Glowtime” event. Let’s jump right in.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.

Neil Cybart 9/10/24 Neil Cybart 9/10/24

Apple Just Held Its Strongest September Event in Years

Hello everyone. Today’s update will go over my initial impressions from Apple’s “It’s Glowtime” event. The discussion will have more in the way of big picture takeaways. We will get to the specifics, including my thoughts on the features, on Wednesday and possibly Thursday.

Let’s jump right in.

Apple Just Held Its Strongest September Event in Years

Apple’s “It’s Glowtime” event was jam-packed with HW updates.

The Apple Watch Series 10 marked one of the more significant year-over-year improvements for a flagship Apple Watch in years. We will likely see a bump up in the non-Ultra to Ultra sales ratio.
All four iPhone flagships contained notable upgrades including A18 (for non-Pro models) / A18 Pro (for Pro models), Camera Control (touch-capacitive area with sensors and haptic motors), and improved battery life across the line.
The entire AirPods line saw updates for the first time since the line expanded to three models, with AirPods receiving a H2 chip along with fit and comfort enhancements, AirPods Pro becoming a clinical-grade Hearing Aid, and AirPods Max receiving its first change in its four-year life (USB-C and new colors).
Apple sneaked in a non-HW Apple Intelligence feature, Visual Intelligence, tied into Camera Control. Visual Intelligence provides iPhone users context for their surroundings.

After looking back at prior September events, it’s fair to say yesterday’s event was the strongest Apple September event since at least 2017 (iPhone X unveiling). That is not meant to belittle or

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Neil Cybart 2/13/23 Neil Cybart 2/13/23

Selling Non-Pro iPhones, Revisiting iPhone Repairability, Less Frequent Upgrading Can Help Apple's User Monetization (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. In today's update, we will cover a few topics related to the iPhone. The discussion begins with Apple’s strategy for selling non-pro iPhones. This leads us to revisiting the subject of iPhone repairability. We go over three primary implications of improved iPhone repairability. The discussion ends with an example of how Apple can turn less frequent device upgrading into improved user monetization over time. Let's jump right in.

Selling Non-Pro iPhones

Over at The Sydney Morning Herald, here is Tim Biggs:

“The latest line-up of iPhones has arguably the biggest gap ever between the standard models and the Pros. The phones have different displays, different features, different cameras and different processors.

If you ask Apple, it will say the two categories are designed with two different consumers in mind, each model having its own strengths. And if you take a look inside, you’ll see that the standard phone can’t simply be written off as a stripped-down Pro or a repackaged model from last year…

It can be hard to tell just from looking at the specs and exteriors where each ‘standard’ iPhone model sits in a hierarchy amid previous models and Pros, new and old. With Pros, it’s easy to assume they’re the biggest and best iPhones at the time of release, but with the standards there’s always an implicit question of what sacrifices are made to get to the lower price.

Richard Dinh, Apple’s longtime senior director of iPhone design, said the company didn’t really think of it like that.

‘We don’t always follow a recipe, as much as maybe our customers would like to predict what we’re going to go do next, but it always starts with the customer experience,’ he said, noting that a standard phone might have different goals for performance, weight, longevity and photography than the Pro models.

‘Sometimes we do draw from the Pros because they’re just incredible, and we’re bringing some of that hardware to a broader audience, and sometimes we go do something different.’”

In talking to The Sydney Morning Herald, one of Apple's goals was to draw attention to how less expensive flagship iPhone models aren’t just pro models that had features removed. Instead, non-pro iPhone models may in some years contain features that premium models lack. For the iPhone 14 and 14 Plus, such features include superior battery life (found with the Plus) and repairability (found with the 14).

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 9/14/22 Neil Cybart 9/14/22

Thoughts on iPhone 14 and 14 Pro Pre-orders, Garmin Trolls Apple, Apple Watch Ultra Battery Life (Daily Update)

Hello everyone.

One clarification regarding iPhone 14 Plus. In yesterday’s update I wrote:

“The iPhone 14 Plus finds itself in a pricing canyon. It’s the third-most expensive iPhone, after iPhone 14 and iPhone SE. However, it’s just $100 less than the 6.1-inch iPhone 14 Pro.”

That should have said "It’s the third-least expensive flagship iPhone.” The broader point is unchanged - the iPhone 14 Plus finds itself in a weird spot within the iPhone line.

With that, let’s jump right in.

Thoughts on iPhone 14 and 14 Pro Pre-orders

Here is the current delivery dates for the iPhone 14 flagships (U.S.):

iPhone 14 (Sept 20 to 21) – available Sept 16th
iPhone 14 Plus (Oct 7) – available Oct 7th
iPhone 14 Pro (Oct 13 to 20) – available Sept 16th
iPhone 14 Pro Max (Oct 20 to 27) – available Sept 16th

Apple has embraced an underpromise and overdeliver mantra when it comes to delivery estimates for online orders. Delivery dates almost always end up being pulled forward. This may explain why delivery dates aren’t dependent on iPhone finish color or storage. Apple may be simply providing an estimated delivery range for each model that it is confident it will not just meet but exceed.

(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.

More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Neil Cybart 6/3/22 Neil Cybart 6/3/22

The iPhone Mini (Above Avalon Report)

An analysis of Apple’s iPhone mini strategy including the model’s lukewarm reception with consumers and difficult time competing against the iPhone SE.

Written by Neil Cybart

The iPhone business is booming. Unit sales are estimated to be at record highs (~270 million units per year) while average selling prices remain at healthy levels ($750+). No Android alternative comes close to matching the iPhone’s success. A major contributor to the iPhone’s success over the years, both in terms of sales and installed base growth, has been Apple’s intelligent approach at diversifying the iPhone line based on feature set and price. Selling a range of iPhone models, including the iPhone mini, has played a key role in Apple reaching a larger customer base.

History

Apple’s iPhone model expansion strategy started relatively straightforward and early on.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this report. Members can read the full report here. An audio version of this report is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the add-on is found here.

(Members: Reports are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.
Access Private Podcasts. Members have the option of attaching a podcast add-on to their membership in order to receive the daily updates and reports in audio form.
Access Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable and provides the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read 1,200+ daily updates and reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Virtual Meet-ups. Talk with Neil about Apple and other related items in virtual meet-ups held via Slack throughout the year.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.