The European Commission's Ireland/Apple Decision, Tim Cook's Blistering Response, Google Is Going After Uber
Today's Above Avalon stories:
The European Commission's Ireland/Apple Decision
Tim Cook's Blistering Response
Google Is Going After Uber
We begin today's update by going into detail about the European Commission's decision regarding Ireland giving illegal state aid to Apple. We go over near-term and long-term Apple implications, including how the decision relates to Apple's current tax rate, accrued taxes, and overall EPS. The email then turns to Tim Cook's response to the European Commission. I also share my view on this entire situation involving Ireland, Apple, taxes, and the EU. The email concludes with a closer look at how Google is going after Uber in the U.S. by expanding its Waze carpooling service. I share my thoughts on the move and the major themes becoming visible in the transportation industry in recent months.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 950 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Calculating the iPhone Installed Base, Segmenting iPhone Users by Upgrade Cycles, New 2016 and 2017 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Calculating the iPhone Installed Base
- Segmenting iPhone Users by Upgrade Cycles
- New 2016 and 2017 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's update is focused on iPhone financials. We begin by going over my new financial model for estimating the iPhone installed base. We discuss my methodology, the growth in the installed base over time, and my estimate for the iPhone installed base as of September 2016. The email then goes over one method to segment iPhone users according to iPhone upgrade cycles. We conclude with a look at my new iPhone sales estimates for FY2016 and FY2017 and a few overall thoughts about the iPhone business given my new financial models.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Industrial Design Is Gaining Power at Apple, Preparing for EU's Decision on Apple/Ireland Tax Deal, Apple Working on New Social Features
Today's Above Avalon stories:
Industrial Design Is Gaining Power at Apple
Preparing for EU's Decision on Apple/Ireland Tax Deal
Apple Working on New Social Features
We kick off today's update by continuing the discussion found in my article "Jony Ive Is Making People Uneasy." Specifically, we look at the Apple Industrial Design (ID) group's major initiatives for the next five years. We also discuss how a more powerful ID can exist within a company moving more into services and content. The email then turns to what appears to be an imminent ruling from the European Commission concerning Ireland's tax dealings with Apple. We discuss my expectation for the ruling and how it may impact Apple. We conclude with a look at Bloomberg's new report on Apple developing new social features for iOS, including possibly a stand-alone app to rival Snapchat. There were a few aspects of the article that didn't sit well with me.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 950 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Opens Up About AI, Apple Changes Retail Branding, Thursday Q&A (Car Edition)
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Opens Up About AI
- Apple Changes Retail Branding
- Thursday Q&A (Car Edition)
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Steve Levy's piece about Apple AI. Needless to say, the article has received quite the polarizing reaction. The email then shifts to news that Apple is removing "Store" from its retail branding. We go over my thoughts on the change and why I think this is the latest sign of continued shift in Apple Retail strategy. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Who would realistically buy Lyft for $9 billion?
- Which is most important: autonomous driving, electric vehicles, or ridesharing networks?
- Can you describe your daily transportation usage? Do you think your routine impacts the way you are thinking about the transportation industry?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Frank Ocean Exclusive, Apple's War Against Music Labels, The Spotify Squeeze
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Frank Ocean Exclusive
- Apple's War Against Music Labels
- The Spotify Squeeze
We kick off today's daily update with a closer look at Apple Music's Frank Ocean exclusive. Apple just pulled off one of the best marketing campaigns I have seen in the music industry. We go over some of the interesting details behind the exclusive and what it means for Apple's music streaming ambitions. The email then turns to why I think Apple has declared war on the music labels. Apple's end goal: Control the music industry. We conclude with my thoughts on how Spotify is being squeezed by the record labels because of Apple's presence in music streaming.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Uber Buys Otto, Partners with Volvo; Apple Passes on Lyft Acquisition; Ford's New Master Plan
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Uber Buys Otto, Partners with Volvo
- Apple Passes on Lyft Acquisition
- Ford's New Master Plan
We begin today's transportation-focused update with a look at Uber's announcement that it acquired Otto and will partner with Volvo in order to have an autonomous vehicle by 2021. We then discuss the various reports indicating that a number of tech companies, including Apple, were approached by Lyft for acquisition talks. We go over this news from the perspective of Apple. The email concludes with a deep dive into Ford's new master plan for the next five to 10 years involving autonomous driving and ridesharing. We go over my thoughts on the plan and what it means for the other major transportation players.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Tim Cook Interview, An Inside Look at Apple, Berkshire Hathaway Increases AAPL Stake
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Tim Cook Interview
- An Inside Look at Apple
- Berkshire Hathaway Increases AAPL Stake
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Tim Cook's extensive interview with The Washington Post. After discussing the major theme from the interview, we go over the parts that I found most interesting. The email then turns to Bob Messerschmidt's inside account of what it was like to work with Jony Ive on Apple Watch. The former sensor technologies manager shared eight lessons he learned about Apple. I share my perspective on his comments and the disagreements I have with some of his conclusions. We finish with news of Berkshire Hathaway increasing its AAPL stake and why I continue to think Berkshire's AAPL purchases symbolize a new era for AAPL shares.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Eddy Cue's Interesting Interview with Fast Company, Apple Working on New Health Device, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Eddy Cue's Interesting Interview with Fast Company
- Apple Working on New Health Device
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Eddy Cue's interview with Fast Company. I provide perspective and reactions to the parts of the interview that stood out to me. Needless to say, it was an intriguing interview. The email then shifts to news that Apple is working on an entirely new hardware device focused on health. We break down the report, ending with what I think is the most likely explanation for what kind of product is under development. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following question from an Above Avalon member:
When it comes to Project Titan, will Apple look to launch a level 4 autonomous car at the beginning or settle with a transitional product at launch?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Thoughts on Upcoming iPhones, Supply Chain Hints at Major iPhone Changes in 2017, Disney to Launch ESPN Streaming Service
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Upcoming iPhones
- Supply Chain Hints at Major iPhone Changes in 2017
- Disney to Launch ESPN Streaming Service
We begin today's update with a closer look at two new iPhone reports. The first is focused on the upcoming iPhones to be unveiled next month. I share my perspective on the upcoming changes and what it means for Apple's iPhone business. Next, we look at the 2017 iPhone and the evidence that suggests Apple has very significant design changes in store. The email then turns to Disney buying a $1B stake in BAM Tech to launch its own ESPN-branded streaming service. We go over the new service and its prospects for success in a streaming world. We conclude with a discussion of what such a service reveals about Disney's relationship with Apple.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple's Big Profile in Fast Company, Thoughts on Apple Watch 2.0, Bozoma Saint John
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Big Profile in Fast Company
- Thoughts on Apple Watch 2.0
- Bozoma Saint John
We kick off today's update with a look at Apple's profile in Fast Company. Tim Cook, Eddy Cue, and Craig Federighi sat down for an extensive interview about Apple's future. We discuss a few key items that stood out to me. The email then turns to new Apple Watch 2.0 rumors, including the idea of Apple launching two new Apple Watch models in September. We run through my thoughts on how I think Apple will approach the Apple Watch line next month. We conclude with a closer look at Bozoma Saint John, head of Apple Music marketing. She gave her first big interview as an Apple executive yesterday.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple's Changing iPad Strategy, iPad Has Turned the Corner, New iPad Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Changing iPad Strategy
- iPad Has Turned the Corner
- New iPad Sales Estimates
We kick off today's iPad-centric update with a deep dive into Apple's iPad strategy. We expand on the points raised in last week's article, "The iPad's Dark Days Are Over," to look at the iPad business as having three distinct phases, with the latest phase just beginning. Then, using data for the number of iPads in use by model, we turn to the fundamental reason why I think the iPad business has turned the corner. We conclude by going over my revised iPad estimates for FY16 and FY17, including unit sales, revenue, and ASP trends.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Tesla 2Q16 Earnings, 2Q16 Smartphone Market Deep Dive, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Tesla 2Q16 Earnings
- 2Q16 Smartphone Market Deep Dive
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Tesla's earnings. I discuss the major takeaways from Tesla's earnings conference call, keeping Apple's Project Titan in mind. The email then turns to the latest IDC smartphone shipment data. We cover some of the major themes taking place in the smartphone market, including the increased chatter that iPhone hardware design seems to be falling behind the competition. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following question from an Above Avalon member:
Why do the bond markets and equity markets have completely different outlooks for Apple?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Fitbit Earnings, Apple's Debt Bonanza, Apple Holding the Line Against Tidal
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit Earnings
- Apple's Debt Bonanza
- Apple Holding the Line Against Tidal
We kick off today's update with a deep dive into Fitbit's 2Q16 earnings. There were a number of interesting comments and items related to the wrist wearables space and health/fitness. We also compare Apple Watch unit sales and revenue to Fitbit unit sales and revenue over the past year. The email then turns to Apple's most recent debt issuance. I share some perspective on Apple's rising debt level and how it relates to Apple's overall risk level. We conclude by circling back to the Apple/Tidal acquisition rumors from last month. Kanye West confirmed many of my initial assumptions about Tidal. We go over where I think the Apple/Tidal talks currently stand and what I suspect to be the major sticking point.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple's Failed TV Negotiations, Apple Buys CarPool Karaoke, Phil Schiller Joins Illumina Board
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple's Failed TV Negotiations
- Apple Buys CarPool Karaoke
- Phil Schiller Joins Illumina Board
We kick off today's update with a closer look at the WSJ's report on Apple's unsuccessful TV negotiations. We go over my perspective on Apple, TV, and why negotiations have been so unsuccessful. The email then turns to news of Apple buying the CarPool Karaoke video series. We discuss why the news isn't surprising and how it will fit into Apple's boarder TV play. We conclude with a discussion of Phil Schiller joining Illumina's board of directors. There are a couple of things that jump out at me related to this news that makes me think there is much more to it than meets the eye.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Didi Acquires UberChina, The Anti-Uber Alliance Is Over, QNX Founder Joins Project Titan
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Didi Acquires UberChina
- The Anti-Uber Alliance Is Over
- QNX Founder Joins Project Titan
Today's email has a car theme. We kick off with major news from the ridesharing industry. Didi is acquiring UberChina. We go over the near-term and long-term implications of the deal and what it means for Apple. The email then shifts to why this deal spells the end of the anti-Uber alliance as the entire ridesharing industry has been turned upside down. We then discuss the recent Bloomberg article containing a few Project Titan scoops. After going over a brief history of QNX and Project Titan's existing connection with QNX/Blackberry, we discuss my perspective and thoughts on why Apple hired QNX founder Dan Dodge and what it means for Apple's broader goals with Project Titan.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.