Previewing Apple's WWDC 2019, Apple Unveils App Store Defense, Feeling the App Store Heat
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Previewing Apple's WWDC 2019
Apple Unveils App Store Defense
Feeling the App Store Heat
The email kicks off with my thoughts heading into Apple's Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC). We then shift to the App Store and Apple’s new webpage defending its App Store practices. The email concludes with my perspective on the pressure being put on Apple when it comes to the App Store. We also go over the remedy that makes the most sense for satisfying digital content subscription companies like Netflix and Spotify in terms of an adequate revenue share arrangement.
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Citigroup Declined Apple Card, iPhone’s App Tracker Problem, iPod Touch’s Target Market
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Citigroup Declined Apple Card
iPhone’s App Tracker Problem
iPod Touch’s Target Market
We kick off today’s update with Apple Card and a report that Citigroup decided not to partner with Apple on a credit card due to profitably concerns. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on The Washington Post’s article regarding third-party iOS apps using data trackers and how the practice hurts Apple’s privacy image and narrative. We conclude with iPod touch. The market that Apple appears to be targeting with iPod touch is different than the device’s more realistic target market.
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Apple Makes Privacy Sales Pitch, Pegatron Diversifies out of China, A Defiant Angela Ahrendts
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Makes Privacy Sales Pitch
Pegatron Diversifies out of China
A Defiant Angela Ahrendts
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on The Independent’s article regarding Apple’s data privacy strategy. The discussion then turns to news that Pegatron, Apple’s second-largest contract manufacturer, will invest in Indonesia. We look at how Pegatron’s move may provide a blueprint for how Apple will navigate the China risk factor. The email concludes with former head of Apple retail Angela Ahrendts giving an unusual on-camera interview with Bloomberg.
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Apple / Tesla M&A Rumors Resurface, Apple’s Evolving Titan Strategy, Google Glass Enterprise 2.0
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple / Tesla M&A Rumors Resurface
Apple’s Evolving Titan Strategy
Google Glass Enterprise 2.0
We begin today’s update with rumors that Apple bid $240 per share for Tesla in 2013. The discussion includes my thoughts on the “bid,” Apple’s most likely thought process regarding a Tesla acquisition in 2019, and the company’s evolving strategy with Project Titan. The email concludes with the newest Google Glass version and a look at why face wearables have been a giant flop.
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Gauging Apple's China Risk Factors, Qualcomm Loses FTC’s Antitrust Case, Apple Announces MacBook Keyboard Changes
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Gauging Apple's China Risk Factors
Qualcomm Loses FTC’s Antitrust Case
Apple Announces MacBook Keyboard Changes
Having discussed the big picture regarding Huawei and China in the past two daily updates, it’s worth taking a look at some of the more tangible near-term impacts on Apple from recent trade developments. We go over the three major risks Apple faces related to U.S. / China trade tensions. The discussion then turns to my initial thoughts on Judge Lucy Koh ruling against Qualcomm in the antitrust case brought forward by the U.S. Federal Trade Commission (FTC). The email concludes with a look at three MacBook keyboard updates.
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A Tech Cold War?, Tech Iron Curtain Skepticism, Gmail Tracks User Purchase Activity
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
A Tech Cold War?
Tech Iron Curtain Skepticism
Gmail Tracks User Purchase Activity
We begin today’s update with a discussion of whether or not recent Huawei developments represent the start of a new tech Cold War. We then go over my thoughts why I’m skeptical of claims that China will eventually embrace some kind of tech / digital iron curtain. The email concludes with the recent uproar over the discovery that Google tracks user purchase activity in Gmail.
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Google Revokes Huawei’s Android License, Chipmakers Stop Supplying Huawei, The Tech Giant in the Weakest Position
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Google Revokes Huawei’s Android License
Chipmakers Stop Supplying Huawei
The Tech Giant in the Weakest Position
We jump right into today’s update with the breaking Huawei/Android news. The discussion revolves around my thoughts on who stands to benefit from Huawei losing access to Google’s proprietary apps and services. We also go over the increased speculation within some circles that China will go after Apple in retaliation for the U.S. targeting Huawei. The email concludes with a discussion regarding the tech giant that I think is in the weakest position from a competitive perspective.
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Disney and Comcast Reach Hulu Deal, The Next Chapter of Paid Video Streaming, Keep an Eye on Hulu
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Disney and Comcast Reach Hulu Deal
The Next Chapter of Paid Video Streaming
Keep an Eye on Hulu
We kick off today’s email with Disney and Comcast reaching a deal regarding Hulu’s future. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on the next chapter of paid video streaming. We conclude with why I think Hulu needs to be watched carefully as the video streaming service is providing us a different perspective on the paid video streaming market.
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The Supreme Court Decision: Apple v. Pepper
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision regarding Apple v. Pepper.
We begin with some basic background and then cover implications arising from the decision. The update concludes with a few stress tests regarding the financial impact to Apple arising from doomsday scenarios involving the App Store.
The 2,800-word email includes the following sections:
Background
The Supreme Court’s Decision
The Details
The Original Lawsuit
Apple’s Response
Questions
Financial Stress Tests
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The AR Disillusionment Phase Continues, Google Pixel 3a Still Faces Problems, A Smartphone Camera Trough
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
The AR Disillusionment Phase Continues
Google Pixel 3a Still Faces Problems
A Smartphone Camera Trough
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on why the AR announcements and demos shown at this year’s Facebook F8, Google I/O, and Microsoft Build were underwhelming. The discussion then turns to why Google’s new $399 Pixel 3a smartphone still faces problems going up against iPhone. We conclude with smartphone cameras and why I think we are nearing some kind of major inflection point regarding AR and cameras.
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Facebook F8, Microsoft Build, Google I/O, Overall Takeaways
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Facebook F8
Microsoft Build
Google I/O
Overall Takeaways
Today’s update will be focused on recent developer conferences from Facebook (Facebook F8), Google (Google I/O), and Microsoft (Microsoft Build). We go over my notes and takeaways from the the three keynotes. We approach the keynotes from the perspective of Apple, focusing on themes that will likely play a major role in Apple’s upcoming developer conference next month.
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If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
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Estimating iPhone, iPad, and Mac Installed Bases, Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Estimating iPhone, iPad, and Mac Installed Bases
Calculating the Mix of Apple Devices in Use
Thursday Q&A
We begin today’s email with my iPhone, iPad, and Mac installed base estimates as of the end of 2Q19 (March 30th, 2019). The discussion then looks at the total number of Apple devices in use broken out by product category. We also go over a few takeaways from the data including my estimate for the number of people using at least one Apple product. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Do you think Apple will try a new design for the cancelled AirPower wireless charging pad?
What do you think of the relationship between Nintendo and Apple? What sets Apple apart from other design-led companies such as Nintendo?
What are your thoughts on Tesla’s marketing (or lack thereof)?
How do you see Marzipan playing out? How will it impact the iOS and Mac ecosystems?
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Estimating AirPods Sales and Installed Base, Estimating HomePod and Apple TV Sales, Measuring Apple’s Accessories Business
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Estimating AirPods Sales and Installed Base
Estimating HomePod and Apple TV Sales
Measuring Apple’s Accessories Business
We kick off today’s email with my AirPods unit sales, revenue, and installed base estimates. The discussion then turns to my HomePod and Apple TV unit sales and revenue estimates. We also go over the methodology used to derive these estimates. The email concludes with a look at Apple’s accessories business from an annual revenue perspective.
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Apple Watch Unit Sales and Revenue, Dissecting Apple Watch Sales Growth, 2Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Watch Unit Sales and Revenue
Dissecting Apple Watch Sales Growth
2Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
Today’s email has an Apple Watch theme. We kick things off with my latest Apple Watch unit sales and revenue estimates. The discussion then turns to why Apple Watch unit sales growth continues to weaken. A number of recent developments and unique situations are impacting Apple Watch unit sales growth. The email concludes with my estimate for the size of the Apple Watch installed base as of March 30th, 2019. We go over my new methodology for tracking the total number of people wearing an Apple Watch.
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Notes from Apple’s 2Q19 10-Q, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Thoughts on AAPL Valuation
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Notes from Apple’s 2Q19 10-Q
Updated Apple Earnings Model
Thoughts on AAPL Valuation
We kick off today’s email with my key takeaways from Apple's 10-Q filing for 2Q19. We cover 10 financial topics. The discussion then turns to my revised Apple earnings model following the company’s 2Q19 results. Above Avalon members have access to my working Apple earnings model at no additional cost. The email concludes with AAPL valuation and the factors that I think are responsible for Apple’s improved valuation metrics.
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