A few days ago, I wrote the following and posted it to my X. The post was meant to be long tweet. It ended up being basically an article. Since I am still a believer in personal blogs, I am posting the writing here as well. Some follow-up was then published for Above Avalon members here.

I would use extreme caution interpreting what's going on with Wall Street as it pertains to Apple shares. Attributing any single day move to a particular news catalyst is a futile exercise.

On June 11th, Apple shares closed up 7.2%. That is the one of the strongest daily moves higher in recent years (there were a few 10%+ moves in 2019 to 2021). For a $3T market cap company, it's noteworthy. One would assume the move higher was related to WWDC. Every Wall Street bank published their WWDC reaction article the night prior. However, there are a few things that give me pause about that thinking.

Apple shares did not gap significantly higher between Monday's close (June 10th) and Tuesday's open (June 11th). In fact, there was no gap at all. This suggests there was not a sudden event or realization the prior night or morning that led to a dramatic shift in demand/supply of issues. Shares were trading as high as $197 on the 10th. Shares opened somewhat calmly at $193 on the 11th. The next two hours saw significant volume and a big move higher. Even more strange? There was another huge move higher at the end of the day into the close.

How is that possible? What happened?

One answer: algorithm-driven / programming trading. On June 11th, demand and supply of AAPL shares was not necessarily driven by participants buying or selling because of WWDC or Apple Intelligence. Instead, computers took over as AAPL shares began to flash (positive) trading signals. To have shares (of the largest company mind you) move a few percentage points higher in an hour triggers bells on trading desks. Have it move 5% higher? More bells. 7%? Even more bells. The fact that these moves weren't overnight gaps factored into the programs. To then have all-time price highs be involved and technical resistance levels be broken, yep - more bells. We can debate technical analysis, but it's a fact programs take such variables into account.

As evidence that something funky happened with wide market participation, AAPL trading volume ended up being 4x average on June 11th. One possible explanation for the heavy volume: The buyside has been underweight AAPL shares all year. Given Apple's large weight in the S&P 500, if the company is underweight in a fund's portfolio and then shares moves significantly higher in price, those funds will see a bad day. As a result, they would need to buy AAPL shares to increase their exposure.

Of course, the market is large and there could be other factors at play. Do some analysts think Apple will sell more iPhones because of Apple Intelligence? Sure. Do some analysts think Apple will generate more Services revenue? Sure. Could those factors have impacted AAPL last week? Sure. This is why one can never be 100% confident that the same event is responsible for a daily tock price move. However, given the way AAPL shares traded last week, I suspect there was a lot more going on behind the scenes of a technical nature than just people being more bullish about iPhone sales or Apple Intelligence.

I do not think Wall Street comprehends long-term implications related to Apple any better today than pre-WWDC. It took Wall Street years to comprehend iPhone. Will likely see the same thing with Apple Vision Pro and spatial computing. Apple Intelligence? Will take years for Wall Street to fully digest.