Above Avalon Episode 169: The Business of Predicting Turns
Financial market commentators have been stumped by the stock market’s resiliency during the pandemic. Maybe they shouldn't be so surprised. In episode 169, Neil examines the question of whether or not Wall Street tried to predict the pandemic’s turn without actually knowing what such a turn would look like. Additional topics include two truths when it comes to how Wall Street functions, the various predictions for Apple, lessons found with Wall Street’s nature of predicting turns, and how predicting turns ends up being about predicting when calmness will enter and leave the market.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Predicting Turns on Wall Street (Above Avalon weekly article)
Jeremy Siegel on CNBC (YouTube)
Market’s Fear Gauge Reaches Decade High (Above Avalon daily update)
iPhone Sales Share Rises During Pandemic (Above Avalon daily update)
More on Predicting Turns on Wall Street (Above Avalon daily update)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (list of headlines for stories found in approximately 1,000 updates going back to May 2015)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 168: The Paid Membership Model
This past week marked the fifth anniversary of Neil launching Above Avalon membership. Above Avalon continues to thrive with a sustainable business model based solely on paid memberships. In episode 168, Neil gives a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon’s business model. Additional topics include: Above Avalon’s history, Neil’s “secrets” to success, and his largest challenges found with a paid membership model.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Above Avalon Membership Turns Five Years Old (Above Avalon weekly article)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (list of headlines for stories found in approximately 1,000 updates going back to May 2015)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 167: A Stock Buyback Poster Child
Share buyback is one of a handful of tools that boards and management teams have to properly manage balance sheets. However, economic fallout related to the pandemic has led to a new round of criticism aimed at buyback. In episode 167, Neil discusses how Apple has become the poster child of responsible share repurchases. Additional topics include: Apple’s recent stock buyback activity, Neil’s expectation for Apple’s upcoming update to its buyback program, the latest criticism surrounding buyback, repurchasing shares in a pandemic, and the harsh reality found with stock buybacks.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple’s $460 Billion Stock Buyback (Above Avalon weekly article)
Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy (Above Avalon report)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 166: Uncharted Territory
Apple and its peers find themselves in the most difficult operating environment they have ever faced. In episode 166, Neil discusses Apple’s strategy for navigating the coronavirus pandemic. Additional topics include the various challenges Apple is currently facing, Apple’s toolmaking mission, how society doesn’t stop during a pandemic, and why strong brands get stronger during difficult times.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Moving Forward in a Pandemic (Above Avalon weekly article)
Episode 165 - The iPad’s First Decade (Above Avalon podcast)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 165: The iPad's First Decade
There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of looking at the iPad unveiling in 2010, how the iPad foreshadowed iPhone success, how Apple pivoted the iPad, the iPad’s primary problem today, and how the iPad’s value is found in letting the product be itself.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Don’t Feel Bad for the iPad (Above Avalon)
The iPad Awkwardly Turns 10 (Daring Fireball)
The Tragic iPad (Stratechery)
iPad at 10. An affair forever (Om)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 164: Competing with Spotify
We are entering a new chapter in music streaming. In episode 164, Neil discusses how Spotify’s attempt to evolve from a dedicated music streaming service to an audio company ends up reflecting broader changes in the music streaming space. Additional topics include Spotify earnings, the music streaming war between Spotify and Apple Music, the problem with Spotify’s current business, roadblocks / advantages facing Spotify as it evolves into a different kind of company, and why Apple shouldn’t ignore Spotify’s evolution. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Spotify Is Evolving (Above Avalon weekly article)
The Music Industry’s Problem (Above Avalon daily update)
Above Avalon Episode 159: AirPods as a Platform (podcast)
Above Avalon Daily Updates page
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 163: A Revolution on the Wrist
In addition to being a sales success, the Apple Watch has ushered in a paradigm shift in computing. In episode 163, Neil discusses how the Apple Watch is fundamentally changing the way we use technology. Additional topics include paradigm shifts, Apple Watch sales, Apple’s new Apple Watch Connected initiative, stationary smart speakers as extensions of existing products, and Neil’s new framework for recognizing paradigm shifts in computing. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing (Above Avalon weekly article)
Above Avalon Episode 118: Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future (Above Avalon podcast)
Apple Watch Unit Sales and Installed Base Calculations (Above Avalon daily update)
The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products (Above Avalon weekly article)
A Stationary Smart Speaker Mirage (Above Avalon weekly article)
Product Vision: How Apple Thinks About the World (Above Avalon report)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 162: The Apple Question
At the start of a new year, there is less value found in coming up with predictions than there is in looking at questions facing the company. In episode 162, Neil goes over his list of questions for Apple in 2020, and the discussion culminates with one overarching question that covers Apple’s largest challenge and opportunity. Additional topics include why predictions contain so little value, the number of Apple users, and Apple in emerging markets. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
The Big Question Now Facing Apple (Above Avalon Weekly Article)
Above Avalon Episode 160: Let’s Talk “Apple Tax” (Above Avalon Podcast)
Above Avalon Episode 143: Look at the Capex (Above Avalon Podcast)
Above Avalon Episode 161: Apple’s Spectacular Year on Wall Street (Above Avalon Podcast)
Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy (Above Avalon Report)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 161: Apple's Spectacular Year on Wall Street
Something has clearly changed when it comes to the way Wall Street is treating AAPL. For the first time with Tim Cook as CEO, Apple shares are trading at a premium to the overall market. In episode 161, Neil discusses how changing behavior as it relates to passive versus active investing may be creating a type of perfect storm for AAPL shares. Additional discussion topics include Apple’s valuation, free cash flow, momentum shifting to passive investing, and Warren Buffett. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple's $500 Billion Year on Wall Street (Above Avalon Weekly Article)
Above Avalon Episode 104: Obscene Amounts of Cash (Above Avalon Podcast)
Bogle Sounds a Warning on Index Funds (WSJ)
Behind the Market Swoon: The Herdlike Behavior of Computerized Trading (WSJ)
With Stocks at Fresh Highs, Investors’ Portfolios Look Alike (WSJ)
Is Apple Being Valued Like a Services Company? / Updated Apple Earnings Model (Above Avalon Daily Update)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 160: Let's Talk "Apple Tax"
Apple’s ability to grab monopoly-like share of industry profits isn’t a result of there being an Apple Tax. Rather, it's a byproduct of Apple following a design-led product strategy that ultimately marginalizes industries. In episode 160, Neil discusses the theory behind the “Apple Tax,” Apple’s pricing strategy, and why the days of there being an Apple Tax ended years ago. Additional topics include Apple gross margin trends, two major implications associated with Apple’s pricing strategy, and a few narrative violations found with Apple’s revenue and gross profit optimization playbook. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
The “Apple Tax” Died Years Ago
Why Apple Products Are So Expensive (Business Insider Video)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (full list of story topics)
Above Avalon Gifts (Various gifting options are available for the 2019 holiday season)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 159: AirPods as a Platform
Apple is turning AirPods into a platform for what comes after the App Store. AirPods will augment our environment by pushing intelligent sound. In the first episode of Season 6, Neil goes over how AirPods have evolved from an iPhone accessory into the early stages of a platform well positioned to reshape the current app paradigm for the wearables era. Additional topics include the AirPods Pro launch, AirPods Pro initial impressions, AirPods sales, examples of AirPods as a platform, and the three sources from which AirPods will derive its platform power. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
AirPods Are Becoming a Platform
More on AirPods Becoming a Platform, Apple Owns the Wireless Headphone Market
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 76: AirPods
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 85: AirPods and the Battle for Our Ears
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 141: Viral AirPods
Neil’s AirPods Sales and 3Q19 Installed Base Estimates
Neil’s updated Apple earnings model (includes quarterly AirPods sales estimates)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 158: Forced to Sell
How did Fitbit go from being considered the wearables leader to viewing a $2.1B acquisition as its best hope for shareholders to recoup any value? What led Fitbit to run out of options as an independent company? In episode 158, Neil discusses how Apple Watch forced Fitbit to sell itself. Additional topics include Google’s acquisition offer for Fitbit, how Apple Watch redefined the wrist wearables industry, and the most damning evidence of Fitbit’s demise. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Watch Forced Fitbit to Sell Itself
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 157: Let's Talk Apple and China
Apple finds itself amidst another controversy regarding removing HKmap.live from the App Store in Hong Kong. However, Apple is facing a different kind of backlash this time. Episode 157 is dedicated to discussing Neil’s thoughts on Apple doing business in China. Additional topics include Tim Cook’s engagement philosophy, Apple’s tool-making mission, and kowtowing to governments. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
A Different View on Apple and China (Above Avalon weekly article)
The NBA, China, and Apple, Apple’s China Stance (Above Avalon daily update)
Apple Pulls Police Tracking App in Hong Kong, Apple Pulls Quartz News App in China (Above Avalon daily update)
Apple accedes to China’a despotic demands (The Washington Post editorial board)
Theodore Roosevelt’s “Citizenship in a Republic” Speech
Appearance / interview at Apple Park (YouTube)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 156: Apple's Content Distribution Arm
Content distribution has been a major theme for Apple in 2019. In episode 156, Neil goes over how Apple’s revised content distribution arm is structured. Neil also goes over his estimates for how much revenue and gross profit Apple’s content distribution arm can generate by FY2022. Additional discussion topics include the difference between Apple’s paid content bundles and content platforms, Neil’s initial estimates for the number of subscribers Apple will be able to grab for Apple TV+, Apple Arcade, and Apple News+, and why Apple’s new paid bundles will likely have lower profits than the App Store. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Measuring Apple’s Content Distribution Arm (Above Avalon weekly article)
Above Avalon Episode 140: Let’s Talk Content (podcast episode)
Above Avalon Episode 145: It’s All About Curation (podcast episode)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 155: The Apple Keynote
Apple keynotes remain some of the most valuable marketing events in today’s media landscape. Episode 155 is dedicated to going over Neil’s thoughts on the Apple keynote. Discussion topics include the odd criticism facing Apple keynotes, the three primary benefits Apple derives from them, how the Apple keynote has evolved, and areas in which Apple can improve the keynote. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Keynotes Still Matter (Above Avalon weekly article)
The Apple Event: Major Takeaways & Full Notes (Above Avalon daily updates)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 154: Which iPhone Is That?
Naming iPhones is more art than science. In episode 154, Neil shares his thoughts on Apple’s iPhone naming strategy. The episode includes an oral history of iPhone nomenclature followed by a discussion of where Apple can bring iPhone naming in the future. Neil also goes over why the art of naming iPhones even matters when looking at the big picture. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Naming iPhones (Above Avalon weekly article)
Thoughts Heading into Apple's Big September Event (Above Avalon daily update)
Above Avalon daily updates archive
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 153: The Bundler of Bundles
In episode 153, Neil discusses the strategy behind Apple TV+. Additional topics include the Apple TV app, five fundamental issues plaguing the paid video streaming market, Netflix’s business model, and what success in paid video streaming looks like for Apple. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
The Apple TV+ Strategy (Above Avalon weekly article)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 152: Let's Talk Wearables
Apple is the undisputed leader in wearables, and they are pulling away from the competition. In Episode 152, Neil discusses how Apple’s wearables business can be thought of as a train gaining momentum. Competitors face declining odds of being able to stop the train. Additional topics include Apple’s wearables performance in 3Q19, wearables as a percent of overall Apple gadget unit sales, Apple wearables revenue, the factors behind Apple’s wearables success, and why wearables represent a paradigm shift in computing. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Deserves More Credit for Wearables (Above Avalon weekly article)
Above Avalon Episode 151: Apple’s Financial Tug-of-War (podcast episode)
Above Avalon Episode 97: Apple Wearables Are a Thing (podcast episode)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 151: Apple's Financial Tug-of-War
A different kind of Above Avalon podcast episode - dedicated to discussing why earnings are so intriguing to Neil. After going over the two ways to utilize quarterly earnings, Neil goes over some of his expectations for Apple’s 3Q19 and how Apple is currently facing a financial tug-of-war. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Expectation Meters (weekly article)
Above Avalon Episode 136: The Unit Sales Crutch (podcast episode)
Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope (podcast episode)
Above Avalon Episode 147: A Faster Bumper Car podcast episode)
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Preview - First Half / Second Half (daily updates)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 150: A Larger Apple Machine
The recent Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news has been met with mixed reactions. In episode 150, we discuss why the leadership changes neither signify a company moving away from design or hardware nor suggest that management is facing some kind of growth crisis. Upon closer examination, the Jony Ive and Jeff Williams news are byproducts of Apple evolving into a much larger design company. Additional topics include the various growth narratives facing Apple, the growing Apple installed base, and the Apple machine. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week by becoming an Above Avalon member and receiving exclusive daily updates. To become a member, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Jony Ive, Jeff Williams, and a Larger Apple (weekly article)
Jony Ive Is Leaving Apple, but His Departure Started Long Ago (WSJ)
Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope (podcast episode)
Thoughts on the Jony Ive News (daily update)
Don’t Ignore Marc Newson, Jeff Williams’ Significance, The WSJ’s Hit Piece Against Jony Ive (daily update)
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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (150 episodes) is available here.
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)