Above Avalon Episode 49: Moving Beyond the iPhone
Apple has spent the past four years planting the seeds for doing the seemingly impossible: moving beyond the iPhone. In this episode, we discuss what it means to Apple to be the iPhone company and the strategy Apple has undertaken to position itself as the driver of the next technological era. After analyzing how the wearables market performed in 2015, we conclude with how Apple is thinking about the iPhone's future and the danger of losing relevency. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.
Show Notes:
Apple Is Moving Beyond the iPhone - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Episode 48: The Two Apples - Above Avalon / Overcast / iTunes
The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products - Above Avalon
Apple Watch Is Being Severely Underestimated - Above Avalon
Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon (daily updates for members)
Above Avalon Episode 48: The Two Apples
There are two Apples: AAPL, the stock, and Apple, the company. In this episode, we discuss the difference between the two Apples. What are the parameters guiding Wall Street's view of AAPL in comparison to Apple management's long-term goals for the company? We discuss AAPL's remarkable underperformance in 2015 and why Apple, the company, had a much more successful year. We conclude with one way Apple management can take this divide between Wall Street and Silicon Valley and use it to their advantage. More information on Above Avalon memberships can be found at AboveAvalon.com.
Show Notes:
The Two Apples - Above Avalon
Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon
What's next for Apple? - CBS News
Apple Won't Look the Same after Monday's Apple Watch Keynote - Above Avalon
Apple Is Buying Back Shares Like There's No Tomorrow - Above Avalon
Apple's Cash Dilemma - Above Avalon
Introducing New Above Avalon Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 47: Apple Questions for 2016
In this episode, we discuss Apple's business prospects for 2016. By focusing our attention on 20 different topics including Apple Watch, iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Music, AAPL financials, management, and product wildcards, we embrace the unknown to reach a better assessment of Apple's priorities and opportunities. We then discuss new Above Avalon features for 2016, including an Above Avalon team in Slack and a new archive for members.
Show Notes:
Apple Questions for 2016 - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Episode 7: Apple Questions for 2015 - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Episode 46: Selling Apple Watch Buzz - Above Avalon
Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon
Decoding Apple's North San Jose Land Mystery - Above Avalon
Calling an iPhone Timeout (daily update from January 7th to Above Avalon members) - Above Avalon
Introducing New Membership Features and a Slack Team - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 46: Selling Apple Watch Buzz
The Apple Watch and iPad are being positioned as the top tech gadget gifts of the season. In this episode, we take a closer look at Apple's fourth quarter and why third-party retailers are betting on Apple products. With Best Buy and Target offering significant discounts on Apple Watch and iPad, we go over the rationale behind such sales and why retailers want access to tech gadgets with the most buzz. We conclude with a look at where Apple products are sold and how product promotions impact the Apple brand.
Show Notes:
Strategy Behind Retailers Discounting Apple Watch and iPad - Above Avalon
Where Apple Products are Sold (daily update from August 4th sent to Above Avalon members) - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to a daily email including exclusive Apple analysis and perspective) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon (posts) on Twitter
Above Avalon Episode 45: People Love Accessories
In this episode, we take a closer look at the accessory market and the driving factors behind Apple's decision to continue down the path of selling iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch accessories. We then tackle the debate that has been building in recent months over questionable Apple design decisions when it comes to certain accessories including the Magic Mouse 2, Apple Pencil, and iPhone Smart Battery Case. Upon further examination, we end up with an explantation for what may really be going on inside Apple. These accessories serve as a vital piece to a puzzle involving Apple, Jony Ive, design, and personal technology.
Show Notes:
Above Avalon Episode 6: Jony Ive - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to a daily email including exclusive Apple analysis and perspective) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 44: The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products
Apple management has relied on various product theories over the years to explain its product portfolio. In this episode, we go over these theories, including Apple's newest product theory as recently explained by Phil Schiller. This "Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products," as I term it, gives both goals and descriptions for each of Apple's product categories. We use this theory to reach three important takeaways about Apple's future product plans. We conclude with a brief discussion of my "Peak iPad Mini" theory and why the product has seen its best days.
Show Notes:
The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products - Above Avalon
Peak iPad Mini - Above Avalon
Marc Newson Interview (includes Apple Watch comments) - Australian Financial Review
Marc Newson on Apple Watch - Above Avalon (daily update from November 5th exclusively for Above Avalon members)
Above Avalon membership information (access to a daily email including exclusive Apple analysis and perspective) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon (posts) on Twitter
Above Avalon Episode 43: Apple TV Is Different
The new Apple TV stands out from Apple's other products. In this episode, we discuss the Apple TV and the path taken to get to today's version, its three most important features from a strategic perspective, and where it can fit into our lives in the future. Additional discussion topics include why it's not likely Apple will change its mind and ship an Apple-branded television and where Apple obtains the most value from an Apple TV box.
Show Notes:
Above Avalon Podcast Episode 17: My Perfect TV - Above Avalon
Behind Apple's Move to Shelve TV Plans - WSJ
Making the Case Against an Apple Television Set - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 42: The North San Jose Investigation
Over the past four months, Apple has spent more than $300 million quietly purchasing or leasing land in North San Jose. In this episode, we review these land transactions and possible reasons behind the deals. We then discuss why all signs point to an Apple Car R&D facility as the most likely reason for Apple's North San Jose activity. After going over some of the data used to reach this conclusion, we take a broader look at Apple's growth trends and what they may mean for Apple's culture. We conclude with how a North San Jose R&D facility may fit structurally within Apple's organization as well as its connection to Apple Campus 2.
Show Notes:
Decoding Apple's North San Jose Land Mystery - Above Avalon
Apple Targets Electric-Car Shipping Date for 2019 - WSJ
Above Avalon Episode 36: Apple's Largest Startup - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 41: Apple's Record Stock Buyback
Tim Cook and Luca Maestri were busy buying back AAPL shares this past summer. In this episode, we take a closer look at Apple's share buyback program. We answer three questions: Why is Apple buying back its stock? How is Apple buying back stock? Does it make sense for Apple to buy back its stock? We then focus on Apple's record pace of stock buyback this past August and September and what it suggests about management's view on Apple's future.
Show Notes:
Apple Is Buying Shares Like There's No Tomorrow - Above Avalon
Large M&A Is Not in Apple's DNA: Case Study of Why Apple Won't Buy Tesla - Above Avalon
Apple's Cash Dilemma - Above Avalon
The New Apple Era - Above Avalon
Apple's Stock Buyback Program Primer (seven chapters meant to be used as a primer to become familiar with Apple's share buyback - member email) - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 40: How Is Apple Doing?
An Apple's earnings report represents a snapshot of how business has performed over the previous three months. In this week's episode, instead of going over all of the numbers and details from Apple's 4Q15 earnings report, we ask a very simple question: How is Apple doing? By looking at the iPhone, iPad, Mac, and Apple Watch, we reach some conclusions regarding how Apple is doing in its quest to make technology more personal. We also briefly discuss 2016 financial trends, including slowing growth metrics. We conclude with my grand theory on what is happening to Apple in today's society and where the most risk to Apple resides.
Show Notes:
Apple 4Q15 Earnings (member email) - Above Avalon
Leasing Solves Apple's Cheap iPhone Dilemma - Above Avalon
Finding iPad's Future - Above Avalon
Apple Watch Is Being Severely Underestimated - Above Avalon
The New Apple Era - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 39: The iPhone Mission
The smartphone industry is once again showing signs of change. The speed at which the U.S. has embraced annual smartphone upgrades, in addition to the new smartphone landscape in China, show that the market is neither static nor set in stone. In this episode, we go over the three goals that comprise Apple's iPhone mission. What are the things that drive Apple's long-term vision for iPhone? We discuss how Apple thinks about personal technology, cheap vs. used iPhones, and keeping the iPhone experience alive. We conclude with a brief discussion on Apple's upcoming earnings and why these quarterly reports have taken on a different feel lately. More specific expectations for iPhone and Apple Watch unit sales are also referenced.
Show Notes:
Leasing Solves Apple's Cheap iPhone Dilemma - Above Avalon
Complete 4Q15 AAPL Earnings Estimate, Expanded Thursday Q&A (member email) - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 38: Good Design Changes the World
Apple has thrust the topic of design into today's society. In Episode 38, we take a closer look at how design can marginalize industries and in the process change the world. After briefly discussing what constitutes good design, we use the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch as case studies for how Apple positions design as a way to alter an industry's value proposition. We also connect good design to the start-up mentality found with Project Titan (Episode 36) to explain Apple's secrets to success. Additional commentary found in this episode includes Dieter Rams' 10 principles of good design, Elon Musk's recent criticism of Apple resulting from frustration, and reasons why good design needs to include a high level of risk.
Show Notes:
Apple Uses Good Design to Marginalize Industries - Above Avalon
Dieter Rams: ten principles for good design - Vitsoe
Jony Ive and Marc Newson discuss the design, usability, and materials of Apple Watch - 9to5Mac
Apple Is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon
All Charged Up in Berlin (Elon Musk interview) - Handelsblatt
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 37: Don't Underestimate Apple Watch
The Apple Watch was unveiled to the world a year ago. Since that time, expectations for the first new product category in the Tim Cook/Jony Ive era have seen a complete reversal. What was once deemed Apple's next big product after the iPhone is now looked at as a toy that missed the mark. In this episode, I take a closer look at the drivers behind this dramatic shift in expectations and the trends taking place that suggest many are underestimating the Apple Watch. Not only does the Apple Watch have potential and promise in a world where the iPhone is our most important computer, but Apple's Watch retail rollout, revised marketing strategy, and focus on watch bands reveal that the Watch is misunderstood and greatly underestimated.
Show Notes:
Apple Watch Is Being Severely Underestimated - Above Avalon
Apple Watch: Faulty Taptic Engine Slows Rollout - WSJ
Flops, Winners, and Outliers - Above Avalon
Thoughts on Apple Watch, Apple Watch Ads Are Getting Better, Apple Campus 3? (Above Avalon Premium) - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Episode 36: Apple's Largest Startup - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 36: Apple's Largest Startup
There continues to be a debate over what makes Apple so successful. While some may think the answer remains elusive, looking at the way Apple is building Project Titan will help provide clues and answers as to how Apple thinks about success. The more important discussion takes place not by focusing on certain technologies or industry data, but by looking at the ingredients required to build great teams. We compare Apple Car development to the way the iPhone and Apple Watch were developed to note both similarities and differences. We conclude with some of my observations as to where Project Titan may proceed and how it may look in the future.
Show Notes:
Apple is Building Its Largest Startup Ever - Above Avalon
Apple Targets Electric-Car Shipping Date for 2019 - WSJ
Apple's Metaio Acquisition Could Be a Game Changer - Above Avalon
Apple Buys Significant Amount of Land in San Jose (Above Avalon Premium) - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 35: Buying a New iPhone Every Year
Along with launching new iPhones, Apple began a new service in the U.S. called the iPhone Upgrade Program. Episode 35 takes a closer look at the program and what it was like to purchase an iPhone 6s Plus through the new service. After discussing some of the lesser-known details of the plan, I then look at how leasing instead of buying iPhones impacts Apple. Ultimately, leasing and upgrading iPhones every year has a major impact on the iPhone development cycle, a cycle which I view as similar to the one Pixar uses when developing films. We conclude with a talk on the financial implications of leasing phones including why revenue may be deferred and how residual iPhone values could change due to grey market supply/demand.
Show Notes:
The Pixar iPhone - Above Avalon
Thoughts on the iPhone Upgrade Program - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
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Above Avalon Episode 34: Back from San Francisco
This episode begins with some of my observations from Apple's latest keynote from the perspective of being a first-time attendee. With only three public events in 2015, this latest keynote was pretty important. Instead of covering a laundry list of details and new features/products from the keynote, I take a step back and look for clues from the past three keynotes to see where Apple is headed in the coming years. We are entering a new Apple era. The iPhone's growing power, apps, and the changing defintion of work will lead Apple to create new platforms that allow personal technology to guide more of our lives beyond just the iPhone.
Show Notes:
The New Apple Era - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes
Above Avalon Episode 33: Packing Up for the Apple Event
I am getting ready to fly out to San Francisco for the Apple event. In this episode, we begin by discussing the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium and why it is such an intriguing venue. Next, we go over the big picture themes for the upcoming event including new iPads, iPhones, and Apple TV. We conclude the episode by discussing news that Apple is thinking about getting into original video programming. Instead of thinking of reasons why it makes sense, the focus should be on the reasons it would be a mistake and why Apple may have slightly different plans in place for original video content involving YouTube content creators.
Show Notes:
Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue - Above Avalon
Apple's 'Hey Siri' Event Roundup - 9to5Mac
Finding iPad's Future - Above Avalon
Apple Is About To Lay Down Its TV Cards - TechCrunch
Apple Eyes Move Into Original Programming - Variety
Above Avalon membership information (access to an exclusive daily email about Apple) - Above Avalon
Subscribe to Above Avalon in iTunes
Above Avalon Episode 32: Do You Carry Apple Watch?
Episode 32 takes a look at three topics impacting Apple this past week. We kick things off by going over Best Buy's earnings report and news that Apple Watch demand was so strong that its rollout has been accelerated. There may be some lessons to learn about Apple Watch retail. We next talk about news that Jeff Bezos has decided to curtail his consumer hardware ambitions and what it may mean for the smartphone and tablet space. The episode concludes with some perspective on the cable bundle and how Apple can rethink the bundle to fit into today's mobile world.
Show Notes:
Above Avalon Episode 30: The Wild Week on Wall Street - Above Avalon
Best Buy deepens links to Apple - Fortune
Flops, Winners, and Outliers - Above Avalon
Amazon Curtails Development of Consumer Devices - WSJ
The Real Story Behind Jeff Bezos's Fire Phone Debacle - Fast Company
Apple's Plan to Destroy the Large Cable Bundle - Above Avalon
'Fear the Walking Dead' is the biggest cable series premier ever - EW
Above Avalon Episode 17: My Perfect TV - Above Avalon
Above Avalon membership (premium daily email about Apple) information - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Episode 31: Finding iPad's Future
There is something about the iPad that just doesn't sit right with me. The iPad is still selling at the pace of 10 million units a quarter, but broader trends point to specific use cases being preferred over others. In Episode 31, I go over the latest trends in the tablet market, why I still have concerns about iPad's future, and why a new form factor is needed at the high-end of the market to regain relevancy. Tablet computing was sold as the future of computing. However, the iPad's future needs to embrace a world where the iPhone is the most important computing device in our lives.
Show Notes:
Finding iPad's Future - Above Avalon
Thoughts on iPad (October 2014) - Above Avalon
Apple's Plan for iPad in an iPhone World (January 2015) - Above Avalon
Apple Rethinking the Pen: Initial Thoughts on 'Apple Pen' - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Memberships - Above Avalon
Above Avalon Episode 30: The Wild Week on Wall Street
I take a closer look at what may be driving some of the recent volatility on Wall Street. There were a number of observations to make for how Wall Street responded to AAPL earnings. The discussion then shifts over to the volatility impacting Disney and nearly every company associated with the legacy TV paradigm. There were signs of market fear and panic in the media space last week, driven by the idea that ESPN and many of the current cable TV players are in trouble. These fears may be overblown.
Show Notes:
Disney Defends ESPN in an Age of Cable Cord-Cutting - WSJ
Above Avalon Membership (access to AAPL 3Q15 earnings review) - Above Avalon