Above Avalon Episode 189: Apple Is in a League of Its Own
The primary takeaway from Apple’s “Peek Performance” event held last month wasn’t found with any particular product. Instead, it was the sheer breadth of product unveilings that caught Neil’s attention. In episode 189, Neil discusses how a revised product strategy and doubling down on a long-standing internal product development process have resulted in Apple being in a league of its own in terms of maintaining and updating such a wide and comprehensive ecosystem of devices and services. Additional discussion topics include Apple new user trends, autonomy within Apple, how the competition is floundering, and the risk Apple faces in an environment with weaker competitors.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. The updates, which have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple, provide timely analysis of news impacting Apple and its competitors. Neil also publishes exclusive reports on Apple business, product, and financial strategy. The daily updates and reports are available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes:
Apple Is in a League of Its Own
iPhone new users: 60 million per year (a five-year high)
Apple Watch new users: 30 million per year (an all-time high)
iPad new users: 30 million per year (an eight-year high)
Mac new users: 15 million per year (an all-time high)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 186: The iPhone 13 Has Arrived
Last week, Apple hosted a virtual event where it unveiled annual updates to the iPhone and Apple Watch. Updates to the iPad line and Fitness+ were also announced. Shortly after the event, Neil received an iPhone 13 Pro to try out. In episode 186, Neil discusses the iPhone 13 Pro in a way to add context to the broader iPhone business. The episode includes Neil’s initial impressions from using the iPhone 13 Pro. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page (https://www.aboveavalon.com/membership).
Show Notes / Links:
Hands-on with the iPhone 13 Pro
HANDS-ON with the iPhone 13 Pro (Unboxing and initial impressions) - YouTube
The iPhone 13 Test, The Driver Behind iPhone Momentum, Early Thoughts on iPhone 13 Sales
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Above Avalon Episode 185: A Memoji Bridge to Mixed Reality
In episode 185, Neil discusses how Memoji is a tool Apple is relying on to prepare users for mixed realty and completely rethought ways to consume content and communicate with others. Additional topics include the difference between mixed reality, AR, and VR, Apple M&A regarding NextVR and Spaces, and Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page (https://www.aboveavalon.com/membership).
Show Notes / Links:
More on Memoji and Apple Mixed Reality, Facebook Earnings, The Problem With Zuckerberg’s Metaverse
Apple Acquires NextVR, Apple Glasses in 2022?, A Wearables Platform for the Face
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Above Avalon Episode 184: Let's Talk WWDC 2021
In episode 184, Neil discusses the big themes found with this year’s WWDC. The episode then takes a deep dive into watchOS direction and what Neil sees as missed opportunities for unleashing more of Apple Watch’s potential. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page (https://www.aboveavalon.com/membership).
Show Notes / Links:
Apple’s Missed Opportunity at WWDC
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Above Avalon Episode 182: Apple’s Underestimated Manufacturing Apparatus
Apple is quietly and gradually showing us that the phase “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China” will evolve. In episode 182, Neil goes over the changes taking place within Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing apparatus. The discussion includes a breakdown of where Apple products are manufactured and the relationship between Apple and its contract manufacturers. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Designed by Apple in California, Not Assembled in China
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
Check out Inside Orchard (Neil’s new site about the technology industry.)
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Above Avalon Episode 181: Let's Talk Apple Retail
When asked to identify Apple’s crown jewel, most will point to the iPhone or iPad. Apple’s retail operations probably wouldn’t be too high on many people’s lists. This is a mistake. In episode 181, Neil discusses Apple’s retail operations with a focus on where Apple Retail is headed and what changes are needed. Discussion topics include the three distinct phases that Apple Retail has experienced, the roles that Apple stores need to play going forward, and the three big bets that Apple is placing with its stores. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 180: 100 Million Wrists
According to my estimate, 100 million people now wear an Apple Watch. This means that approximately 10% of iPhone users wear an Apple Watch. In episode 180, Neil discusses these installed base and adoption figures as part of a larger discussion regarding Apple Watch’s sales momentum, growth potential, and roles in Apple’s ecosystem. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Apple Watch Is Now Worn on 100 Million Wrists
Above Avalon Episode 174: Apple Watch Is a Runaway Train
Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 179: Winning the Buyback Debate
After years of criticism, doubt, and questions surrounding Apple’s share buyback program, we are at a point where we can say with confidence that the buyback debate has ended and Apple was declared the winner. In episode 179, Neil goes over how the buyback debate began and why so many people underestimated Apple’s ability to both buy back shares and invest in its future at the same time. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Apple Won the Share Buyback Debate
Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 178: Welcome to 2021
Episode 178 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s 2020 and where the company finds itself as we enter 2021. The episode goes over the first Above Avalon year in review that was published for 2020. Neil discusses his five favorite Above Avalon weekly articles from 2020 and the sub themes that were found in the 196 daily updates published in 2020. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Above Avalon Year in Review (2020)
Above Avalon Podcast Episodes (available to everyone):
Above Avalon Weekly Articles (available to everyone):
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 177: The Rise of the Small Display
While the pandemic is pushing people to embrace larger displays like iPads and Macs, the momentum found with smaller displays is still flying under the radar. In episode 177, Neil discusses how analysis of Apple device display size popularity can be used to gain insight into Apple’s ecosystem and quest to make technology more personal. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 176: The Mac Earned a Diploma
The Mac is seeing momentum by being true to itself instead of trying to be something that it’s not. With a transition to Apple Silicon, the product category is now benefiting from lessons Apple learned from more popular devices aimed at the mass market. As the Above Avalon podcast enters its seventh season, episode 176 is dedicated to discussing the Mac’s Apple Silicon and what may come next for the Mac. Additional topics include the Apple Silicon transition being akin to a graduation for the Mac, the Apple Innovation Feedback Loop, and overlap between the iPad Pro and Mac portables.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Estimating the Number of Mac Users
Estimating the Number of iPads in Use
Estimating Total Number of iPhone Users
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
Above Avalon Daily podcast info page (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 174: Apple Watch Is a Runaway Train
While the tech press spent years infatuated with stationary smart speakers and the idea of voice-only interfaces, it was the Apple Watch and utility on the wrist that ushered in a new paradigm shift in computing. In episode 174, Neil discusses how Apple Watch momentum is building. The product category resembles a runaway train as no company is in a position to slow it down. Additional topics include the stationary smart speaker mirage, Neil’s Apple Watch installed base estimates, how Apple Watch derives its momentum, and Apple’s health platform.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Watch Momentum Is Building
Above Avalon Episode 113: It’s a Smart Speaker Mirage
Above Avalon Episode 163: A Revolution on the Wrist
Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing
My Apple Watch Adoption Estimates
Above Avalon Daily podcast info page (sample podcast episodes are available here and here)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (174 episodes) is available here.
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Above Avalon Episode 173: Let's Talk App Store
As Apple pulls away from the competition, the App Store is considered the best (and last) chance for competitors to reshape the mobile industry to their liking. In episode 173, Neil examines how competitors are waging a guerrilla war against Apple and the App Store. The discussion then turns to Neil unveiling a new podcast called Above Avalon Daily.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Estimating App Store’s profitability
Introducing the Above Avalon Daily Podcast
Above Avalon Daily sample episodes are available here and here
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Above Avalon Episode 170: Pulling Away From the Competition
In episode 170, Neil examines how Apple is pulling away from the competition to a degree that we haven’t ever seen before. Given how we are just now entering the wearables era, implications of this shift will be measured in the coming decades, not years. Additional topics include WWDC 2020, Apple’s revised product strategy, the competitive landscape, and Apple’s lead in wearables.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Is Pulling Away From the Competition
Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope
Apple’s Product Strategy Is Changing
iPhone Sales Share Rises During Pandemic
4Q19 Apple Watch and AirPods Installed Base Estimates
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Above Avalon Episode 169: The Business of Predicting Turns
Financial market commentators have been stumped by the stock market’s resiliency during the pandemic. Maybe they shouldn't be so surprised. In episode 169, Neil examines the question of whether or not Wall Street tried to predict the pandemic’s turn without actually knowing what such a turn would look like. Additional topics include two truths when it comes to how Wall Street functions, the various predictions for Apple, lessons found with Wall Street’s nature of predicting turns, and how predicting turns ends up being about predicting when calmness will enter and leave the market.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Predicting Turns on Wall Street (Above Avalon weekly article)
Jeremy Siegel on CNBC (YouTube)
Market’s Fear Gauge Reaches Decade High (Above Avalon daily update)
iPhone Sales Share Rises During Pandemic (Above Avalon daily update)
More on Predicting Turns on Wall Street (Above Avalon daily update)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (list of headlines for stories found in approximately 1,000 updates going back to May 2015)
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Above Avalon Episode 168: The Paid Membership Model
This past week marked the fifth anniversary of Neil launching Above Avalon membership. Above Avalon continues to thrive with a sustainable business model based solely on paid memberships. In episode 168, Neil gives a behind-the-scenes look at Above Avalon’s business model. Additional topics include: Above Avalon’s history, Neil’s “secrets” to success, and his largest challenges found with a paid membership model.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Above Avalon Membership Turns Five Years Old (Above Avalon weekly article)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (list of headlines for stories found in approximately 1,000 updates going back to May 2015)
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Above Avalon Episode 167: A Stock Buyback Poster Child
Share buyback is one of a handful of tools that boards and management teams have to properly manage balance sheets. However, economic fallout related to the pandemic has led to a new round of criticism aimed at buyback. In episode 167, Neil discusses how Apple has become the poster child of responsible share repurchases. Additional topics include: Apple’s recent stock buyback activity, Neil’s expectation for Apple’s upcoming update to its buyback program, the latest criticism surrounding buyback, repurchasing shares in a pandemic, and the harsh reality found with stock buybacks.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple’s $460 Billion Stock Buyback (Above Avalon weekly article)
Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy (Above Avalon report)
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Above Avalon Episode 166: Uncharted Territory
Apple and its peers find themselves in the most difficult operating environment they have ever faced. In episode 166, Neil discusses Apple’s strategy for navigating the coronavirus pandemic. Additional topics include the various challenges Apple is currently facing, Apple’s toolmaking mission, how society doesn’t stop during a pandemic, and why strong brands get stronger during difficult times.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Moving Forward in a Pandemic (Above Avalon weekly article)
Episode 165 - The iPad’s First Decade (Above Avalon podcast)
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Above Avalon Episode 165: The iPad's First Decade
There was no shortage of writers, pundits, and industry analysts using the iPad’s 10th anniversary las month to give eulogies for the product in terms of its inability to be revolutionary, grab momentum, or even just meet expectations. In episode 165, Neil discusses his perspective on the iPad’s first decade and why we shouldn’t feel bad for the iPad. Additional topics include a different way of looking at the iPad unveiling in 2010, how the iPad foreshadowed iPhone success, how Apple pivoted the iPad, the iPad’s primary problem today, and how the iPad’s value is found in letting the product be itself.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Don’t Feel Bad for the iPad (Above Avalon)
The iPad Awkwardly Turns 10 (Daring Fireball)
The Tragic iPad (Stratechery)
iPad at 10. An affair forever (Om)
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Above Avalon Episode 164: Competing with Spotify
We are entering a new chapter in music streaming. In episode 164, Neil discusses how Spotify’s attempt to evolve from a dedicated music streaming service to an audio company ends up reflecting broader changes in the music streaming space. Additional topics include Spotify earnings, the music streaming war between Spotify and Apple Music, the problem with Spotify’s current business, roadblocks / advantages facing Spotify as it evolves into a different kind of company, and why Apple shouldn’t ignore Spotify’s evolution. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Spotify Is Evolving (Above Avalon weekly article)
The Music Industry’s Problem (Above Avalon daily update)
Above Avalon Episode 159: AirPods as a Platform (podcast)
Above Avalon Daily Updates page
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)