Netflix 4Q23 Earnings, Netflix Buys Rights for WWE Raw, Spatial F1 Racing on Apple Vision Pro
Some weeks, the news flow comes together in such a way as to result in a fun conversation at the end of the week covering several related topics. We will do that in today’s update. The update will begin with Netflix earnings, turn to Netflix getting into live sports/entertainment, and then conclude with a closer look at an intriguing concept for live sports consumption on Vision Pro.
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Indie Apps on Vision Pro, A visionOS Developer Strike?, The Apple Developer Community
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on indie app development for Apple Vision Pro. The discussion then turns to why Neil disagree’s with Stratechery’s Ben Thompson’s theory regarding developers being on a Vision Pro / visionOS “strike.” The update concludes with a few broader observations about the Apple developer community, new computing platforms, and not getting caught in developer silos.
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Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
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Netflix and Spotify Snub Vision Pro, YouTube Dragging Feet With Vision Pro, Apple TV+ Was the Right Bet for Apple
When the Vision Pro launches on February 2nd, there will be approximately 250 apps with native support for visionOS - apps optimized for Vision Pro when it comes to design elements and other features made possible by visionOS). Considering how we are talking about a new platform with all-new design thinking, that number comes across as decent. The list includes some, but not all, of Apple’s apps, along with a variety of third-party apps.
A million iPhone and iPad apps will also be available unless the developer opts out. In recent days, attention has flowed to three opt outs – Netflix, Spotify, and YouTube. We will focus on those companies today. There will be more to say about visionOS apps tomorrow.
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Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
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More on My Apple Vision Pro Demo, Apple’s Vision Pro Sales Pitch
Last Thursday, we went over Neil’s initial thoughts following his second Vision Pro demo. For today, we will kick things off with more about what actually occurred during Neil’s demo. This provides a look at how Apple is positioning Vision Pro at launch. The discussion will then go deeper into the Apple Vision Pro sales pitch.
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Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
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Thoughts After Using Apple Vision Pro for a Second Time
Earlier today, I experienced a 40-minute demo of Apple Vision Pro. The demo was about 10 minutes longer than the one that occurred at WWDC 2023. Across the two demos, I’ve spent about 70 minutes using Apple Vision Pro.
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U.S. Supreme Court Declines to Hear Epic/Apple Appeals, The New App Store Battle, Consumers Should Be More Vocal
As expected, the Vision Pro news cycle remains in overdrive ahead of pre-orders going live in a few days. We will get to the latest developments shortly. For today’s discussion, we will travel to App Store land and news from the U.S. Supreme Court. The update also goes over Neil’s thoughts on where the new App Store battle in the U.S. will be fought.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Watch Ban Update, YouTube’s Strengthening Grip on Kids, NFL / Peacock Controversy
We kick things off with the latest developments involving the U.S. sales / import ban on Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2. The update then turns to media land. We go over YouTube’s strengthening grip on children’s viewing habits. Our attention then turns to takeaways from the NFL / NBC / Peacock controversy this past weekend involving the Saturday Wild Card playoff game.
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Google Reorganizes Devices Group, Humane Announces Reorganization
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Google reorganizing its devices group. The update then turns to Humane announcing a reorganization ahead of its upcoming Ai pin launch.
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Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
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Analyzing Historical Apple HW Launches (Unit Sales), Vision Pro Launch Sales Estimate
Given Vision Pro's upcoming launch, the next few weeks of updates will inevitably contain a fair amount of Vision Pro discussion. For today, we take a closer look at Apple HW launches. We will also go over my initial launch sales estimates for Vision Pro.
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An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Apple Releases First Vision Pro Ad, Revisiting the First iPhone Ad, iPhone vs. Vision Pro
We will continue our Vision Pro discussion as a few interesting developments came to light at the end of yesterday. Neil goes over his thoughts on Apple’s first Vision Pro ad. The discussion then turns to comparing the ad to Apple’s first iPhone ad in 2007. This leads to a broader look at iPhone vs. Vision Pro comparisons.
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Apple Vision Pro Launch Date Announced, New Vision Pro Details, What About Vision Pro Demos?
There is Vision Pro news to go over. We begin with Neil’s thoughts on Apple’s Vision Pro launch date. The discussion then goes over several new details disclosed about the device. We conclude with a look at Vision Pro demos at Apple Stores.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
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New Churn Estimates for Paid Video Streaming, Apple Announces Fitness+ Updates, ASML Cancels DUV Shipments Into China
We kick things off with a closer look at new churn estimates for the major video streamers in the U.S. The paid video industry is getting more complicated. The discussion then turns to Neil’s thoughts on new features and content announced for Fitness+. We conclude with ASML needing to cancel advanced deep ultraviolet (DUV) machines shipments into China.
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More on Apple Watch Ultra, Tesla 4Q23 Deliveries, EV Market Slowing in U.S.
We begin with additional comments related to the latest Above Avalon Report focused on Apple Watch Ultra. The update then turns to the auto space as we look at Tesla’s 4Q23 deliveries and signs of slowing EV growth in the U.S.
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U.S. Court Pauses Apple Watch Ban, Apple’s Response, Why I’m Not Concerned About Apple Watch
The most recent Above Avalon Report, which went out to everyone via email on December 22nd and via podcast to members with the podcast add-on, was about Apple Watch Ultra / Ultra 2. In tomorrow's update, we will talk about a few things that didn't make it into the report. For today, we will look at the latest regarding the Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 U.S. ban. The discussion includes a closer look at Apple’s response and why Neil isn’t concerned about Apple Watch.
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The Ultra Strategy: An Examination of Apple’s Adventurous Watch (Above Avalon Report)
An examination of the Apple Watch Ultra.
Written by Neil Cybart - December 21st, 2023
In 2022, Apple unveiled an all-new Apple Watch model designed for the adventurous. While previous Apple Watches were able to be used in extreme conditions, this model would be marketed as taking things to another level. A year after its unveiling, Apple Watch Ultra remains the most intriguing Apple Watch model as momentum flows to more capable devices worn on the wrist.
Table of Contents
Apple Watch History
Watch Line Expansion
The Ultra Unveiling
Bad (Initial) Reviews
The Strategy
Differentiation Details
Sales Implications
Future
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Apple Year in Review 2023 (Financial Strategy)
As we close out 2023, there is value in taking time to recap the past 12 months. For Apple, one way of recapping the past 12 months is to look at the company from two perspectives: products and financials. In yesterday’s update, we recapped Apple's product strategy. Today, we will analyze Apple’s financial trends in FY2023.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
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Apple Facing Apple Watch Ban in U.S., Apple Year in Review 2023 (Product Strategy)
We kick off the update with Neil’s thoughts on Apple facing an Apple Watch Series 9 and Ultra 2 import and sales ban in the U.S. The discussion then turns to reviewing Apple’s 2023. As we close out the year, there is value in taking time to recap the past 12 months. For Apple, one way of accomplishing this is to look at the company from two perspectives: products and financials. We will begin with Apple's product strategy as the financials follow product successes and failures.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Netflix Releases Engagement Report, Takeaways From Netflix’s Data Dump, EU Close to Ruling Against Apple in Spotify Probe
We kick off the update with Netflix’s new report on engagement. After examining 18,000+ lines of data, Neil goes over his observations and takeaways regarding Netflix’s report. The discussion then turns to the EU getting close to ruling against Apple’s anti-steering provision.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Google Losses Antitrust Case to Epic Games, GM Digging Deeper CarPlay Hole, Anti-Apple Brigade Forms in EU
We begin today’s update with Google losing the antitrust case brought by Epic Games. There were significant differences between Epic Games v. Google and Epic Games v. Apple. The update then turns to more craziness from GM regarding its decision to ditch CarPlay. We conclude with a look at Apple competitors wanting to team up to “push for open digital ecosystems” in the EU. Neil discusses why the group should rename themselves the Anti-Apple Brigade - EU Edition.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.
Google Faked Its Gemini AI Demo, CNBC Pumped Alphabet Stock Due to Gemini Demo, Generative AI Demos Are Lacking
We kick off the update with Neil’s thoughts on Google’s Gemini demo and the discovery of the demo being faked. The discussion then looks at how the Gemini demo led to craziness, including CNBC pumping Alphabet shares solely because of a six-minute video. We conclude with why Neil thinks generative AI demos have been lacking to date.
An Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.
An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-on.