Apple and Tariffs (Part 1)
Hello everyone. We are going to take advantage of this daily newsletter’s format when it comes to analyzing Apple and tariffs. There will be a discussion that stretches across several updates. Today’s update will be “Part 1.”
My goal is to cover pretty much every nook and cranny that should be covered when it comes to Apple and tariffs. There is a lot of noise in terms of publications and people focusing on the wrong things. Accordingly, our discussion may have different focus areas compared to prevailing analysis circulating on social media.
For today’s discussion, we are going to start a bit big picture by laying out the situation. In the coming days, there will opportunity for us to go deeper on some points.
Let’s jump in.
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Trump Announces Additional Tariffs, White House Hints at Tariff Exemptions for Apple, Apple Options
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Trump Announces Additional Tariffs
White House Hints at Tariff Exemptions for Apple
Apple Options
Hello everyone. Given how some of you are new to Above Avalon membership (welcome), today is a good time to reiterate that this is not a politics newsletter. Accordingly, our focus is not going to be on the pros and cons of U.S. tariffs. Instead, we have plenty of items to discuss pertaining to how yesterday's big announcement involving reciprocal tariffs will impact Apple. The discussion will begin by going over what was announced. We will then turn to my latest thinking regarding Apple receiving tariff exemptions. The update will conclude with several options Apple has at its disposal if tariff exemptions do not materialize.
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Tesla 1Q25 Delivery Figures, Cybertruck Sales Disclosed, The Big (Auto) Picture
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Tesla 1Q25 Delivery Figures
Cybertruck Sales Disclosed
The Big (Auto) Picture
The highly anticipated reciprocal tariffs news just dropped. We will dedicate tomorrow’s update to the topic. It’s been nearly a year to the day (April 3rd, 2024) since we last talked about Tesla at length in these updates. Since Apple disbanded Project Titan, my overall approach to the auto industry as it pertains to these updates hasn’t changed. It is good to keep abreast of what’s unfolding in the car industry as the market is too large for Apple to ignore. While the ingredients may not be ripe for Apple’s entry over the next few years, we can’t rule out the company having renewed interest down the road. There is then Apple’s CarPlay initiative as a current integration offering between first-party hardware and non-Apple hardware.
We will begin today’s discussion by going over Tesla’s latest deliveries report.
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More on iPhone Tariffs and India, Tariff Engineering, Apple Fined for Protecting User Privacy
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
More on iPhone Tariffs and India
Tariff Engineering
Apple Fined for Protecting User Privacy
Welcome to April. We are going to jump into today’s update with some follow-up to yesterday’s discussion. The update focuses on how iPhone production in India impacts Apple’s exposure to U.S. tariffs. We then turn to how Apple can pursue various tariff engineering mechanisms to avoid tariffs. The update concludes with more absurdity from European tech regulators.
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Apple and Elon Musk Battle Over Satellites, Foxconn's iPhone Production in India, DMA’s Political Undertones in Spotlight
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple and Elon Musk Battle Over Satellites
Foxconn's iPhone Production in India
DMA’s Political Undertones in Spotlight
Happy Monday. Welcome to a new week. We kick things off with three stories that appeared on my radar over the weekend. The discussion begins with Elon Musk and Apple increasingly going up against each other in the satellite space. We then turn to Foxconn’s growth plans in India. The update concludes with the Digital Market Act and the regulation's motivation being put in the spotlight. Let’s jump in.
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Palmer Luckey on Vision Pro Pricing, Vision Pro microOLED Costs, Improving Vision Pro Accessibility
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Palmer Luckey on Vision Pro Pricing
Vision Pro microOLED Costs
Improving Vision Pro Accessibility
Hello everyone. Happy Friday. We wrap up this week with Vision Pro. Palmer Luckey, a well-known figure in headset circles, raised a few eyebrows with his latest comments regarding Apple Vision Pro. Let’s discuss.
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Selling Curation in Sea of Overabundance, Netflix co-CEO Mocks Apple TV+, Apple’s Sports Intrigue
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Selling Curation in Sea of Overabundance
Netflix co-CEO Mocks Apple TV+
Apple’s Sports Intrigue
Happy Wednesday. Today’s update will likely conclude our three-day journey through Apple TV+ land. Based on some incoming questions from members, there was interest in going a bit deeper on the concept of Apple selling content curation in today’s overabundance environment. We then conclude with a few thoughts on sports and Apple.
One quick update pertaining to the Financial Models add-on. The four financial models that are part of the add-on have been updated. My iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models were expanded to now include metrics through 2026. In addition, my Apple earnings model has been updated through 2026. Given that it’s been a while since we last talked about the add-on, more information will be found at the end of today’s discussion.
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User Metrics Are Complicated for Apple TV+ and Apple Music, A Challenge Found With Apple’s Services, How Apple’s Content Arm Stands Out
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
User Metrics Are Complicated for Apple TV+ and Apple Music
A Challenge Found With Apple’s Services
How Apple’s Content Arm Stands Out
Hello everyone. Following yesterday's update regarding Apple TV+, there a few ancillary topics worth pursuing. Let's jump right in.
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Apple TV+ Reportedly Losing Money, Apple's Goal for Apple TV+, Apple's New LA Campus Begins to Take Shape
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple TV+ Reportedly Losing Money
Apple's Goal for Apple TV+
Apple's New LA Campus Begins to Take Shape
Hello everyone. We will kick off this week in Apple TV+ land. The Information published an article that said Apple TV+ was unprofitable to the tune of $1B a year. Let’s jump right in.
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Apple Shifts Siri Leadership to Mike Rockwell and Craig Federighi
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple Shifts Siri Leadership to Mike Rockwell and Craig Federighi
Hello everyone. As discussed earlier this week, when there were newsworthy updates regarding Siri to discuss, we would circle back to the topic. That’s what we will do today as a new report provides much-needed context on the Siri situation.
Before we get to today’s discussion, one quick follow-up when it comes to Sonos. A member reached out to me to say that a big reason for his Sonos usage is better integration with non-Apple audio services. This factor was referred to as “Sonos focusing on music services compatibility” in terms of answers for why iPhone users with multiple Sonos speakers in the home didn't buy HomePods. Maybe my next question on social media should be: iPhone users, why do you use Spotify instead of Apple Music?
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Sonos Closes Door to Video, Time to Start Asking the Sonos Questions, Apple Opportunities
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Sonos Closes Door to Video
Time to Start Asking the Sonos Questions
Apple Opportunities
Hello everyone. Today's update will take us into Sonos land. As Sonos continues to navigate turbulent waters, we are getting to the point when questions regarding the company's longer-term prospects need to be asked. There are also some implications to consider as it pertains to Apple.
Let's jump in.
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Lars Ulrich Talks With Zane Lowe, More on Apple and Immersive Concerts, Vision Pro and the Feeling of Being Connected
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Lars Ulrich Talks With Zane Lowe
More on Apple and Immersive Concerts
Vision Pro and the Feeling of Being Connected
Hello everyone. After yesterday’s discussion, there were a few follow-up questions / comments regarding Apple Immersive Metallica. Two general topics were raised by members:
Why doesn’t Apple announce a larger initiative aimed at filming additional concerts? Wouldn’t such news build buzz and lead to a significant pipeline of Apple Immersive Video?
While capturing concerts in Apple Immersive Video may be great, Apple is unable to replace the social element of going to a concert with friends and family.
There are variables that complicate the underlying assumptions found with those topics. Let’s discuss.
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Apple Releases Metallica on Vision Pro, Thoughts on Apple Immersive Metallica, Apple’s Immersive Video Release Strategy
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Releases Metallica on Vision Pro
Thoughts on Apple Immersive Metallica
Apple’s Immersive Video Release Strategy
Hello everyone. Happy Monday.
Last week was jam-packed with Siri / Apple Intelligence talk. There was no consensus reaction or response to the Above Avalon Daily update sent out this past Friday. Some members agreed with my stance while others disagreed. A few people reached out to say the situation felt overblown given what unfolded on the ground.
We are going to shift gears and talk about other topics. Depending on the news flow, we will circle back to Siri / Apple Intelligence in due time.
Today's update will take us to Apple Vision Pro land and a new Apple Immersive Video film. Apple Immersive Metallica may be the best immersive film Apple has released to date.
Let's jump right in.
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Thoughts on John Gruber's “Something Is Rotten in the State of Cupertino” Post
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Thoughts on John Gruber's “Something Is Rotten in the State of Cupertino” Post
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. Today’s update will be focused on John Gruber’s indictment of Apple, published on his Daring Fireball website. Published on Wednesday, this article has made some waves. The update will make for good weekend reading as it’s a bit longer than the usual update.
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Curating AI, How AI Curation Breeds Apple Intelligence Criticism
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Curating AI
How AI Curation Breeds Apple Intelligence Criticism
Hello everyone. Instead of getting this update out very late Wednesday night, I decided to wait and publish it mid-day Thursday. There will be one more update published this week (tomorrow). We will talk about John Gruber’s (Daring Fireball) indictment of Apple as it relates to Apple Intelligence and the delayed Siri features. The way it works out, today’s discussion will serve as a good lead-in for tomorrow’s update. In a way, we can think of it as this is the first half of a two-part update.
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Siri’s Promise, My Issues With Siri, How to Gauge Siri’s Progress
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Siri’s Promise
My Issues With Siri
How to Gauge Siri’s Progress
We will continue our discussion from yesterday regarding Siri. There is value found in assessing the promise Apple saw in Siri when acquiring the company. We then go over three issues that have led to some Siri friction. The update concludes with my thoughts on how Siri's progress can be properly measured.
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Apple Delays Siri Features, What’s Going On?, Broader Implications
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Delays Siri Features
What’s Going On?
Broader Implications
Welcome to a new week. Today's update will be dedicated to Apple's Siri news. Apple announced some Siri features that were unveiled as part of Apple Intelligence features need more time before being released. There's much to talk about, so let's jump right in.
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Qualcomm Sounds Nervous About Apple, MacBook Air and Perfection, What’s Next for MacBook Air?
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Qualcomm Sounds Nervous About Apple
MacBook Air and Perfection
What’s Next for MacBook Air?
Today's update will have a few follow-up stories to topics that we have discussed. We will begin with new comments from Qualcomm's CEO regarding Apple's modem. The discussion will then turn to the MacBook Air and the idea that the form factor has been perfected. We conclude with my thoughts on Apple's mission for the MacBook Air over the next five to ten years.
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Apple Updates MacBook Air, The Mac Studio Update, Mac Momentum
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Updates MacBook Air
The Mac Studio Update
Mac Momentum
Earlier today, Apple announced updates to the MacBook Air and Mac Studio. Apple staggered its press releases with iPad news on Tuesday and the Mac on Wednesday.
We will kick off today’s update with a few observations regarding the Mac updates. The discussion will then turn to tying it all together.
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Apple Updates the iPad Air, Apple Updates the Entry-Level iPad, The iPad Strategy
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Updates the iPad Air
Apple Updates the Entry-Level iPad
The iPad Strategy
In yesterday’s update, we discussed how the iPhone 16e is aimed at existing iPhone owners who likely have gone at least five years without an upgrade. Evidence backing up that claim can be seen on Apple’s iPhone 16e minisite.
Consider the following comparison tool for the iPhone 16e:
The following iPhones are used as comparison options:
iPhone 11 (launched in Sept 2019)
iPhone 12 (launched in Oct 2020)
iPhone 12 mini (launched in Nov 2020)
iPhone SE 2nd and 3rd gen (launched in April 2020 and March 2022)
Similar comparison tools for the iPhone 16 use more recent iPhone models (iPhone 12 to iPhone 15 Plus). The iPhone 16 Pro comparison tool goes from iPhone 12 Pro to iPhone 15 Pro Max.
For today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s iPad news. The update concludes with my broader thoughts on Apple’s iPad strategy.
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