Neil Cybart 10/19/22 Neil Cybart 10/19/22

Netflix 3Q22 Earnings, Netflix Wants a New Narrative, Netflix's ARPU Mission (Daily Update)

Hello everyone.

We are going to talk more about the iPad line tomorrow. There are a growing number of questions as to what Apple announced (and didn’t announce) yesterday regarding the iPad. We will go over where I think Apple may take the iPad line from here.

Today’s update will be dedicated to Netflix earnings. As the company with the most paid subs in video land, at least until Disney provides its updated subscriber total, Netflix results can provide insights as to how the paid video industry is evolving.

Let’s jump right in.

Netflix 3Q22 Earnings

Netflix successfully played Wall Street's expectations game. The 3Q22 paid subscriber guidance that management gave three months ago was very weak. Management was essentially calling for no subscriber growth on a global basis (+1.0M) despite having a strong quarter from a video content perspective.

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Neil Cybart 8/31/22 Neil Cybart 8/31/22

An Upcoming Flood of TV Content, Netflix Mulls Pricing for Ad Tier, Apple TV+ Pricing Strategy (Daily Update)

The following update was sent to members on August 29th.

Hello everyone. Let’s jump right into a new week of updates.

An Upcoming Flood of TV Content

Here’s the Financial Times:

“Since 2016, the veteran US television executive John Landgraf has been predicting the arrival of ‘peak TV’ — the moment when the number of new scripted shows reaches an all-time high.

The streaming boom has proved him wrong every time but he gamely made the prediction again this month, telling guests at the Television Critics Association press tour that 2022 would mark ‘the peak of the peak TV era’.

Landgraf, chair of Disney’s FX network, conceded that he could be wrong this time too. But there is little doubt that this autumn will present audiences with a flood of some of the most expensive television ever produced.”

It’s not good to be known as the prognosticator of peak TV. There is no question that streaming has led to the overall video pie getting larger. While we may see a temporary plateau in the number of scripted shows produced, betting on peak TV is basically betting against video. That’s not an attractive bet to me.

An offshoot to Landgraf’s “Peak TV” theory does intrigue me though.

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