Disney Earnings, Disney to Combine Disney+ and Hulu, Hulu’s Future
Hello everyone. Happy Tuesday. Today's discussion will take us into paid video streaming land. Last week, Disney reported CY1Q23 earnings. We go over Neil’s thoughts on the earnings release. The update then turns to Bob Iger’s plan to combine Disney+ with Hulu in a new streaming app. We conclude with a look at Hulu’s future as it pertains to Disney and Comcast.
Let's jump right in.
Disney Earnings
Disney’s FY2Q23 earnings were good. Overall revenue was up 13% while free cash flow was just shy of $2B. Over the past year, there hasn’t been a shortage of mediocre to poor quarters in the tech and media space. However, Disney’s CY1Q23 results reflect the benefits found with a truly diversified business model in the media space (IP that can be monetized in various ways). Disney Parks and Experiences remains on a tear with ~20% revenue growth and strong operating income. Excluding timing issues with higher sports programming costs, even Disney’s Linear Networks results were OK, helping to offset continued financial losses found with Disney+. Management claims streaming losses peaked last year.
Here are Disney’s DTC subscription totals (as of April 1st, 2023):
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More on Apple’s Buyback Plan, It’s All About Apple Free Cash Flow, Iger vs. Chapek (Daily Update)
We begin today’s update with a few additional takeaways from Neil’s new report on Apple’s share buyback program. The discussion then turns to a key different between Bob Iger and Bob Chapek and what it means for Disney’s approach to blockbuster movies.
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. It’s good to be back after a few days off.
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Let’s jump into today’s update.
More on Apple’s Buyback Plan
The newest Above Avalon Report examined where things currently stand with Apple’s share buyback program and what the future will likely bring.
In recent years, somewhat of an understanding has taken hold when it comes to Apple’s buyback. Wall Street is not as doubtful about Apple’s ability to fund both share buyback and its investment opportunities (capex, R&D, M&A). This doesn’t mean that Apple’s share buyback lacks unknown.
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Ranking Big Tech’s 3Q22 Performance, Zuckerberg Announces Major Round of Layoffs, Disney 4Q22 Earnings (Daily Update)
In today’s update, we go over Neil’s rankings for how Big Tech performed in 3Q22. We discuss Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta. The discussion then turns to Zuckerberg’s drastic move to reduce Meta’s workforce by 13%. We conclude with a closer look at Disney’s earnings. Disney management is making one strategic mistake with Disney+.
Hello everyone. Let's jump right into today's update.
Ranking Big Tech’s 3Q22 Performance
CY3Q22 was a mixed bag for Big Tech (Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta). Macro issues are not being felt evenly. At the same time, competition is impacting some companies more than others. It’s telling that maybe the biggest surprise to come out of 3Q22 earnings season came in November, after everyone reported,
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(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.
Conceptual Concerns with Google Glass
Google continues to expand its public R&D effort for Project Glass, recently announcing a call for developers to become part of the early program. While many tech adopters are becoming downright giddy towards Google Glass, I have a number of reservations about the product, but more importantly the larger implications of how technology evolution will impact society.
In a Google+ post advertising the Glass developer program, Google wrote, "[w]e’re developing new technology that is designed to be unobtrusive and liberating, and so far we’ve only scratched the surface of the true potential of Glass.”
On its surface, that brief description sounds promising. Who wouldn’t want to be liberated by additional technology, all the while still feeling secure and in a weird way; human? Of course, in its current form, Google Glass doesn’t come close to those accolades as wearing a computer on one’s face doesn’t exactly seem like an advancement for less obtrusive technology.
As smartphone and tablet proliferation continues, the limitations surrounding tech gadgets is becoming clear. With iPhone in hand, potential is unlimited as the ability to capture the surrounding world, all the while harnessing the web through curated user interfaces (apps), proves to be quite an attractive proposition. However, once a user is away from their phone (or tablet), the gadget’s usefulness is hard to measure. The preceding situation demonstrates a major inefficiency in hardware; physical dependency, which time will eventually dissolve as society moves towards a gadgetless world (don’t worry there’s still time to enjoy phones and tablets).
There are tangible signs that the world is already entering a new phase of mobile computing; wearable technology. At what may come as a surprise, Nike (via Nike+ FuelBand) and Disney (via MagicBand) seem to be leading the wearable technology army having announced inexpensive (or in Disney’s situation, free) wearable computing products. Of course, one could argue that such focused applications don’t go beyond niche needs or uses, but for that matter, wearable technology, like any disruptive force, will begin with niche uses. Add in Google Glass, and circulating iWatch/iBand rumors, and it becomes clear that the mobile computing industry may be ready to move.
In its current concept, Google Glass represents the key risk to the next phase of computing; letting technology control society while reducing user optionality. While the ability to take a picture or video of anything, at any time, through a camera near my eye may sound appealing, society can do exactly that now with a phone, which could then be easily put away and ignored. If the resulting argument is “just take off the Google Glasses then”, the added benefit of having such a device is then questioned. Early supporters of the device reiterate that Project Glass is just getting started and the possibilities are endless. While that statement may be true, it lacks the justification for why the initial product should deserve endless praise simply for being introduced. I’m sure other companies could release products that seem cool for a few hours only to discover major conceptual concerns.
Google isn’t shy in portraying Google Glass as a way to improve one’s quality of life through access to information. Having to wear a computer on one’s face doesn’t ring as some kind of industrial design breakthrough, especially compared to a simple bracelet or watch which could serve many functions by just being casually worn; hidden away under clothing. Technology can then truly melt away into the background. Having an endless amount of information at one’s disposable is not guaranteed to be a benefit and if handled incorrectly, which many companies are doing now, negative consequences are born.
Where is Project Glass headed? Judging from Google’s videos, the Project Glass team will initially try to find niche uses for Google Glass, including recreational airplane pilots, skydiving schools, taxi drivers, and circus acts. Of course, each one of those niches raises serious concerns if glasses would even be practical (and safe) in those scenarios, but that’s besides the point. Google has plenty of talent dedicated to Project Glass, which may very well open future doors for the initiative. Criticisms surrounding price and practicality for visually impaired users are somewhat misplaced as those two criteria could probably be solved somewhat easily and quickly. More importantly, Project Glass will give Google data about mobile and wearable computing; data that Nike has already been collecting, and which Disney will soon be. (It’s debatable how valuable such data is to a company. Wall Street loves it, but that’s hardly a ringing endorsement.)
While some are in a rush to applaud Google for publicly airing its R&D and introducing new products for the sake of introducing new products, it’s important to remember that tech companies don’t just sell products, but also values. For wearable computing to become a formidable force, a company’s values and beliefs will prove to be more important than the device itself. Technology has the ability to ruin society through excess noise and information. While some companies hold that fear close to heart, others seem content to usher in that doomsday scenario.