My 2Q24 Apple Estimates, Expectations for Apple's 3Q24 Guidance, My Updated Apple Earnings Model
Happy Wednesday. One quick thing before we get to the second half of my earnings preview.
Financial Models Add-on. As a reminder, members now have access to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models with the Financial Models add-on. These models make it possible to estimate device unit sales, the number of devices in the wild over time, product upgrade cycle length, percent of device sales going to new users versus existing users by year and more. For those of you who purchased the Financial Models add-on, all installed base models have been updated ahead of earnings. You can access the models at any time by logging into your Above Avalon membership account here and going to the Digital Package tab (shown below). My earnings model has also been uploaded so that it will always be available in the same tab for easy access.
The Financial Models add-on is designed to be a perfect companion for AAPL investors wanting to take a deep dive into Apple’s financials as well as Apple competitors and suppliers needing to better understand the marketplace dynamic. For pricing information and to purchase the add-on, check out this page.
My 2Q24 Apple Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 2Q24:
Revenue: $91.9B (consensus: $90.0B)
Overall gross margin: 46.9% (guidance: 46% to 47%)
Gross margin (HW): 37.4%
Gross margin (Services): 74.6%
EPS: $1.59 (consensus: $1.50)
iPhone revenue:
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Setting the Stage for Apple’s 2Q24 Earnings, Thoughts on Apple’s Stock Price Underperformance
Hello everyone. Happy last day of April. We will begin preparing for Apple earnings. Today’s discussion will look at the big picture ahead of Thursday’s earnings release. We will go over my granular estimates on Wednesday.
Setting the Stage for Apple’s 2Q24 Earnings
Heading into Thursday’s earnings, the setup looks positive for Apple. Expectations surrounding Apple are at a multi-year low while business fundamentals appear to be holding up OK. This lowers the bar for what Apple needs to report and say on Thursday to please analysts and company observers. While a slowdown in device upgrading and sales weakness at the low end of various product lines continue to weigh on Apple’s
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. (Members: Daily Updates are accessible via the archive. If you haven’t logged into the archive before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.
Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.
An audio version of the newsletter is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members. Additional membership customization is available via the Financial Models add-ons.