Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros, My AAPL 4Q24 Estimates
Hello everyone. We are at that point of the week where some triage is needed. There is a lot of stuff unfolding and not enough time to cover it all. Big Tech earnings are now in full swing. We will discuss earnings from Apple competitors in due time. For now, our attention is needed elsewhere.
Programming Note. With Apple reporting FY4Q24 earnings on Thursday, there won’t be a daily update published Thursday. Instead, there will be a special edition Friday update that goes over my thoughts and reactions to Apple’s earnings.
Apple Earnings Preview. Yesterday’s update, which was sent out very early on Wednesday in the AM ET, went over the big picture heading into Apple's earnings on Thursday. The FY4Q24 expectations game is slightly biased to the upside for Apple. Compared to expectations facing Apple ahead of 3Q24 earnings, things are a tad tougher for Apple to surprise to the upside. However, the general framework still has an upward bias. Today’s discussion will continue my earnings preview so that we are fully prepared for tomorrow.
Updated MacBook Pros. For Day 3 of Apple’s Mac week, the company unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Many of the broader points regarding Apple Intelligence and Mac strategy were discussed in the two most recent updates. There is no need to reiterate those points again with MacBook Pro. However, there are a few observations about the machines worth going over. We will quickly go over those (250-300 words) and then switch over to Apple’s earnings.
Financial Models Add-on. There are several updates to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models coming down the pipeline. In looking over the models a few weeks ago, my preference ended up being to wait until we got closer to 4Q24 earnings to update all of the models at once. Accordingly, my updated installed base models, which influenced my 4Q24 estimates, will go live on Thursday for those members with the Financial Models add-on. In addition, my updated Apple earnings model will be uploaded to the add-on in the AM. As a reminder to those of you with the add-on, to access the financial models, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here) and once signed in you will see the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized download page. More information on the Financial Models add-on is available here.
Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros
On Wednesday, Apple unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Along with a press release, Apple taped a 14-minute presentation (available here). For those of you who have watched the iMac and Mac mini presentations, the MacBook Pro presentation relied on the same general playbook. The MacBook Pro update was anchored by Apple Intelligence and Apple Silicon. The relevant presentation sections were tailored to show off workflows that would likely be given to MacBook Pro.
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My Granular Estimates for Apple 3Q24 Earnings
We conclude my Apple 3Q24 earnings preview. Today’s discussion goes over my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q24. We also look at my revised 4Q24 estimates heading into Thursday and a quick cheatsheet for Apple’s earnings release.
One quick item before we get to the second half of my Apple 3Q24 earnings preview.
Financial Models Add-on. To those members with the Financial Models add-on, my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models will be updated following Apple’s earnings. As a reminder, you can access the models at any time by logging into your Above Avalon membership account here and going to the Digital Package tab (shown below). My updated earnings model will be found in the same location (expect one to be posted in the AM ET tomorrow).
The Financial Models add-on is designed to be a perfect companion for AAPL investors wanting to take a deep dive into Apple’s financials as well as Apple competitors and suppliers needing to better understand marketplace dynamics. For pricing information and to purchase the add-on, check out this page.
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Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.
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Setting the Stage for Apple’s 2Q24 Earnings, Thoughts on Apple’s Stock Price Underperformance
Hello everyone. Happy last day of April. We will begin preparing for Apple earnings. Today’s discussion will look at the big picture ahead of Thursday’s earnings release. We will go over my granular estimates on Wednesday.
Setting the Stage for Apple’s 2Q24 Earnings
Heading into Thursday’s earnings, the setup looks positive for Apple. Expectations surrounding Apple are at a multi-year low while business fundamentals appear to be holding up OK. This lowers the bar for what Apple needs to report and say on Thursday to please analysts and company observers. While a slowdown in device upgrading and sales weakness at the low end of various product lines continue to weigh on Apple’s
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Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.
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Apple’s Installed Base Growth, Apple's Paid Subscriptions Growth, A More Effective Apple Growth Narrative for Wall Street
Last Friday’s update kicked off our Apple 1Q24 earnings review. When it comes to Apple’s financial story, trends are tracking close to Neil’s expectations. For today, we will take a closer look at one takeaway from earnings: Apple’s ecosystem growth.
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Initial Thoughts on Apple’s 1Q24 Results, Apple’s 1Q24: By the Numbers, Parsing Apple’s 2Q24 Guidance
Apple’s 1Q24 earnings call was jam-packed with information. Unlike the average earnings call from Big Tech, Apple’s calls contain useful commentary and tidbits. More time will be needed to go through the disclosures, including the installed base information.
For today, we will look at the big picture from earnings, how the reported figures compared to my estimates, and Apple’s 2Q24 guidance.
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Preparing for Apple’s 1Q24 Earnings Release
Apple reports FY1Q24 earnings (results from October to December) on Thursday. Today's update will begin our preparation for Apple's earnings as we go over Neil’s broader thoughts heading into Apple’s earnings.
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My 4Q23 Apple Estimates, Early Thoughts on Apple’s 1Q24, My Current Apple Earnings Model
Apple reports FY4Q23 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for estimates related to Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will say about guidance (FY1Q24). We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.
Hello everyone. Welcome to November.
We will continue our Apple 4Q23 earnings preview with a look at my granular estimates. The update also includes a few thoughts on Apple’s FY1Q24 guidance and my updated earnings model.
In keeping with our usual practice, tomorrow’s update (Thursday) will be pushed back a day so that we have a special Friday edition of the update to review Apple’s earnings. Apple will release earnings Thursday at 4:30 pm ET.
My 4Q23 Apple Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 4Q23:
Revenue: $88.9B (consensus: $84.2B)
Overall gross margin: 44.9% (guidance: 44% to 45%)
Gross margin (HW): 36.7%
Gross margin (Services): 70.7%
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Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY4Q23 Earnings
Welcome to a new week. For today's update, we will kick off my Apple earnings preview with an overview of the setup heading into Thursday’s release. The plan is to continue the earnings preview on Wednesday.
As a reminder, Apple's "Scary Fast" online product event will take place tonight at 8 pm ET. We will talk about the announcements tomorrow.
Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY4Q23 Earnings
The setup heading into Apple earnings on Thursday is trending a tad positive. FY4Q results are notorious for being noisy quarters as supply issues cloud underlying demand for iPhone and Apple Watch. This was especially true this year as iPhone 15 Pro and Phone 15 Pro Max were in short supply at the end of September. The iPad and Mac will also likely fuel some ugly headlines with tough year-over-year compares. However, my expectation includes enough variables moving in the right direction to get Apple over its 4Q23 earnings expectations bar.
Margins remain impressive. Management guided close to a 11-year quarterly high for gross margin percentage.
Services revenue is trending stronger. Apple has been seeing growth in advertising, cloud services, and the App Store. The impact from price increases in 2022 for Music and TV+ will also help results. When considering Apple’s entire business, Services (and probably Apple Watch) come across as having the most impressive momentum.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Hello everyone.
In today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s 3Q23 earnings Q&A session with analysts. After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my thoughts / response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call.
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, Seeking Alpha offers a written transcript here.
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Consumer Behavior
Q (Morgan Stanley): How is the consumer behaving today versus 90 days ago? Are there geographical differences?
Cook: Emerging markets was a strength. China saw acceleration. Europe saw a record for the June quarter. There are “some really good signs in most places in the world.” The smartphone market remains challenging in the U.S.
My response: The going theory for why the U.S. has been the outlier in terms of iPhone weakness is that economic anxiety (higher inflation and rates) combined with consumer behavior shifts (budget shift to services, leisure, eating out, and travel) have strained the appetite for consumer electronics. It also should be pointed out that the U.S. has one of, if not the highest, iPhone sales share in the world. There are fewer people in a position to switch to iPhone.
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Apple 3Q23: By the Numbers, The Most Impressive Apple Number, About That Weak iPad Number
Today's special Friday edition of the Daily Update will be focused on reviewing Apple’s earnings. The idea is to keep things broad and look at the big picture takeaways. We also examine how Apple’s results compared to Neil’s expectations. The discussion will continue next week.
Hello everyone. We will begin reviewing Apple's FY3Q23 results. Let's jump right in.
Apple 3Q23: By the Numbers
The themes that guided the past few quarters for Apple were present in the company’s FY3Q23 results. Emerging markets strength is being offset by a slowdown in iPhone upgrading in the U.S. Meanwhile, solid Services revenue generation is being offset by weak Mac and iPad results. The result is mostly flat revenue growth with FX continuing to serve as a growth headwind (Apple’s FX hedging program creates a lag in receiving any weaker dollar benefit).
This past Monday, we went over three factors that point to FY2024 being a better one for Apple financially. Following Apple’s FY3Q23 results and earnings call, there has been no change in my thinking.
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My FY3Q23 Apple Estimates, Early Thoughts on Apple’s FY4Q23
Apple reports FY3Q23 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for each of Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will say about guidance (FY4Q23).
Hello everyone. Welcome to August.
We will continue our Apple 3Q23 earnings preview with a look at my granular estimates. The update will conclude with a few thoughts on what Apple may say regarding 4Q23 guidance. My updated earnings model will be available in tomorrow’s update.
My 3Q23 Apple Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 3Q23:
Revenue: $82.0B (consensus: $81.6B)
Overall gross margin: 44.4% (guidance: 43.5% to 44.5%)
Gross margin (HW): 35.7%
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Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY3Q23 Earnings
Apple reports FY3Q23 earnings (results from April to June) later this week. Today’s update includes Neil’s big picture thoughts heading into Apple’s earnings.
Happy Monday.
Apple reports earnings on Thursday. For those of you who may be new to Above Avalon membership, I wanted to quickly discuss the typical game plan for Apple earnings coverage.
Prior to Apple’s earnings release, we go over my expectations for what will be announced. These expectations cover both qualitative and quantitative items. Expectations are important given the role they play in adding context to a company’s results. My Apple earnings previews typically extend across two, possibly three, updates.
Once Apple reports earnings, we will then go over everything there is to say about the release, the earnings conference call, and even the 10-Q or 10-K. By the end of the process, we have a comprehensive overview of both Apple’s results for the prior three months and analysis of guidance for the current quarter.
Today, we will kick off my Apple earnings preview with an overview of the setup heading into Thursday’s release.
Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY3Q23 Earnings
Over the next few months, the setup is becoming more positive for Apple’s financial results. My expectation is that when Apple reports earnings on Thursday, we will begin to see and hear the early signs of this improvement. Apple’s guidance for FY4Q23 could still point to the business facing macro pressures, but that would then clear the deck in a way for an all-around better FY2024.
There are three factors behind this “improvement on the horizon” theme:
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 2Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week.
Last Friday, we went over the numbers from Apple’s 2Q23 earnings release. We also looked at two of the major themes from earnings: the impact from less device upgrading and Apple’s emerging markets strength.
In today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s earnings Q&A session with analysts. After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over my thoughts / response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call.
NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, MarkerBeat offers a written transcript here.
iPhone
Q (Morgan Stanley): Did Apple experience iPhone demand deferral or destruction arising from the COVID shutdowns in late 2022?
Cook: Our 2Q23 results reflected some iPhone demand carryover from 1Q23. iPhone production is back where we want it to be.
My response: Recall our discussion heading into earnings about two variables driving iPhone sales in 2Q23: Underlying customer demand and a sales carryover from 1Q23 related to COVID shutdowns. Cook’s answer implies that
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Apple 2Q23: By the Numbers, Apple Device Upgrading Slows, Apple's Emerging Markets Strength (Daily Update)
Today's special Friday edition of the Daily Update will be focused on reviewing Apple's earnings. The idea is to keep things broad and look at the big picture takeaways. We also examine how Apple’s results compared to Neil’s expectations.
Hello everyone. Welcome to a special edition Friday version of the daily update. We will begin going over Apple’s 2Q23 numbers and conference call.
For today, the focus will be on the key numbers and two big picture takeaways. The discussion will continue next week.
Let’s jump right in.
Apple 2Q23: By the Numbers
There were no major surprises found with Apple’s 2Q23 earnings. Device upgrading has slowed, although Apple continues to bring new users into the fold. While the iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch look OK, AirPods continues to experience growth turbulence, while the Mac is trying to find sales stabilization. In an environment where gross margin integrity is being rewarded, Apple’s results will get attention.
Apple’s guidance for 3Q23 is close to what sell-side analysts were expecting, which likely will come as a disappointment to some. Looking under the hood, it looks like the U.S. macro environment is indeed sluggish, backing up conclusions from various Fortune 500 firms. Offsetting such disappointment, Apple continues to see strong momentum in emerging markets as the company takes share from Android.
Here are Apple’s reported 2Q23 results versus my expectations with brief commentary for each item.
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My Apple 2Q23 Estimates, Expectations for Apple's Capital Management Changes, My Revised Apple Earnings Model (Daily Update)
Apple reports FY2Q23 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for each of Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will announce regarding its cash dividend and share repurchase authorization. We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.
Hello everyone. Similar to previous quarters, with Apple releasing earnings tomorrow, Thursday’s update will be pushed out a day so that there is a special edition Friday version of the daily update.
Let’s jump into the second half of my earnings preview.
My Apple 2Q23 Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 2Q23:
Revenue: $95.7B (consensus: $93.0B)
Overall gross margin: 44.6% (guidance: 43.5% to 44.5%)
Gross margin (HW): 37.5%
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My Apple 1Q23 Estimates, Expectations by Apple Product Category, Updated Apple Earnings Model (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Apple reports FY1Q23 earnings (results from October to December) on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion then turns to qualitative explanations for each of Apple’s product categories. We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
My Apple 1Q23 Estimates
Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 1Q23:
Revenue: $123.0B (consensus: $121.2B)
Overall gross margin: 42.8% (guidance: 42.5% to 43.5%)
Gross margin (HW): 37.0%
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Setting the Stage for Apple 1Q23 Earnings, About AAPL’s Move Higher, Looking Ahead at Apple’s 2Q23 (Daily Update)
Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week.
Apple reports FY1Q23 earnings (results from October to December) on Thursday. We kick off today’s update with Neil’s thoughts and expectations heading into Apple’s earnings. The discussion goes over implications found with AAPL’s recent outperformance to the market. The update concludes with some of Neil’s early thoughts regarding how Apple’s 2Q23 (January to March) is trending.
We will go over Neil’s granular Apple financial estimates tomorrow. His revised Apple earnings model will also be ready.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
Setting the Stage for Apple 1Q23 Earnings
Heading into Apple’s earnings release on Thursday, expectations for what Apple will announce remain muted. Even though Apple shares are up 10% so far in 2023, the move doesn’t necessarily correspond with consensus believing Apple’s results and guidance will surprise to the upside. More on that shortly.
Low or muted expectations for Apple’s results may come as somewhat of a surprise. The company’s 4Q22 results were decent. Here was a very quick summary:
“Despite facing major FX headwinds, Apple’s ecosystem remained on track in 4Q22. The company reported all-around solid 4Q22 results. The few areas of weakness (iPad and Services came in below my expectations) were offset by iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch sales strength.”
While 1Q23 guidance was a tad weak with revenue growth coming in about 200 basis points lower versus my (adjusted) expectations – check out our 4Q22 earnings review here for the details as to how that number was derived - Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri sounded
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Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter, What’s Going On With iPad Sales?, Charting Apple’s Ecosystem Growth (Daily Update)
In today's update, we will continue our Apple 4Q22 earnings review with a few granular takeaways. In particular, we look beyond the Mac and iPad numbers. Tomorrow, our focus will be geared toward everything that was discussed on management's earnings call.
Inside Apple’s Record Mac Quarter
Apple reported $11.5B of Mac revenue in 4Q22. It was a quarterly record that exceeded my estimate by a significant $1.5B. Prior to 4Q22, the previous Mac revenue record was $10.9B (in 1Q22).
Diving deeper into 4Q22 Mac results, things become more complicated. We may be seeing something equivalent to a near-term plateau, or growth air pocket, for Mac sales.
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My Initial Reaction to Apple Earnings, Apple 4Q22: By the Numbers, Breaking Down Apple’s Guidance (Daily Update)
Today’s update will be dedicated to going over Apple’s 4Q22 results and management commentary. The idea is to keep things broad today and look at the big picture, in addition to the financial results. The discussion will continue next week as we move beyond the numbers to look at the granular takeaways.
My Initial Reaction to Apple Earnings
Apple went into this earnings season possessing the most formidable ecosystem of devices and services in the world. Despite facing major FX headwinds, Apple’s ecosystem remained on track in 4Q22. The company reported all-around solid 4Q22 results. The few areas of weakness (iPad and Services came in below my expectations) were offset by iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch sales strength.
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The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
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Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings, My Apple 4Q22 Estimates, Apple Raises Apple Music and Apple TV+ Pricing (Daily Update)
Happy Tuesday.
We will go over my updated Apple earnings model tomorrow. It's not quite ready for publication. As a reminder, with Apple reporting earnings on Thursday, here is the daily update schedule for the rest of the week:
Wednesday: Regular update
Thursday: No update
Friday: Special Friday update dedicated to reviewing Apple earnings
Previewing Apple’s 4Q22 Earnings
My expectation is for Apple to report OK results on Thursday. While FX, inflation, and ongoing supply chain issues will negatively impact numbers, Apple should be able to comfortably exceed the all-time FY4Q revenue record ($83B is the current record).
FY4Q presents a few challenges for Apple financial modeling and earnings analysis as results reflect demand and supply trends 1) leading up to the critical September product launches and 2) a portion of the product launches themselves. For Apple, those two periods can end up representing distinct demand environments.
An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this update. Members can read the full update here. An audio version of this update is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the podcast add-on is found here.
(Members: Daily Updates are always accessible by logging into Slack. If you haven’t logged into Slack before, fill out this form to receive an invite.)
Above Avalon Membership
Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.
The daily updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple and technology. They are unmatched in the marketplace in terms of comprehensive analysis and research on all things Apple. Members reside in 60 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. They include Silicon Valley executives and investors, the largest Apple shareholders, and the leading Apple journalists in the business.
More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.