My 2Q24 Apple Estimates, Expectations for Apple's 3Q24 Guidance, My Updated Apple Earnings Model


Happy Wednesday. One quick thing before we get to the second half of my earnings preview.

Financial Models Add-on. As a reminder, members now have access to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models with the Financial Models add-on. These models make it possible to estimate device unit sales, the number of devices in the wild over time, product upgrade cycle length, percent of device sales going to new users versus existing users by year and more. For those of you who purchased the Financial Models add-on, all installed base models have been updated ahead of earnings. You can access the models at any time by logging into your Above Avalon membership account here and going to the Digital Package tab (shown below). My earnings model has also been uploaded so that it will always be available in the same tab for easy access.

 
 

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My 2Q24 Apple Estimates 

Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 2Q24:

  • Revenue: $91.9B (consensus: $90.0B)

  • Overall gross margin: 46.9% (guidance: 46% to 47%)

  • Gross margin (HW): 37.4%

  • Gross margin (Services): 74.6%

  • EPS: $1.59 (consensus: $1.50)

  • iPhone revenue:

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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 1Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts

In today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s 1Q24 earnings Q&A session with analysts.

After recapping each question-and-answer exchange that occurred on the call between Apple and sell-side analysts, we will go over Neil’s response to the exchange. Let’s go beyond what was talked about on the call with the ninth installment of reading between the lines of Apple's earnings Q&A with analysts.

NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q (Sell-Side Firm)”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, Seeking Alpha offers a written transcript here.

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My 1Q24 Apple Estimates, Expectations for 2Q24 Guidance, My Updated Apple Earnings Model

Apple reports FY1Q24 earnings on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion includes qualitative explanations for estimates related to Apple’s product categories. We then look at Neil’s expectations for what Apple will say about guidance (FY2Q24). We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.

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Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time.

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Google Faked Its Gemini AI Demo, CNBC Pumped Alphabet Stock Due to Gemini Demo, Generative AI Demos Are Lacking

We kick off the update with Neil’s thoughts on Google’s Gemini demo and the discovery of the demo being faked. The discussion then looks at how the Gemini demo led to craziness, including CNBC pumping Alphabet shares solely because of a six-minute video. We conclude with why Neil thinks generative AI demos have been lacking to date.

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AAPL Closes Above $3 Trillion for Second Time, Apple’s Recent Stock Price Strength, Apple Valuation Update

Today's update begins with Neil’s thoughts on Apple closing above a $3 trillion market capitalization for the second time. We then look at Apple’s recent stock price strength and what may be behind the move higher. The update concludes with an examination of AAPL valuation metrics (forward P/E, EV/FCF, and free cash flow yield).

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Three Interesting Charts for Apple's 4Q23

Hello everyone. Welcome to Monday and a new week. We will continue our Apple 4Q23 earnings review.

Like last quarter, we will focus on three charts that go a long way in summarizing Apple’s current financial trends. We will cover the granular takeaways from Apple's 4Q23 earnings call in tomorrow’s update.

As a reminder, if you have questions about Apple’s earnings, please send them way. The questions can be covered as we proceed through the earnings review.


Three Interesting Charts for Apple's 4Q23

1) HW vs. Services Gross Profit Growth

Over the years, we have had various opportunities to compare key financial differences between Apple HW and Apple Services.

The former is heavily influenced by upgrading trends. For Apple to report HW revenue growth, the company needs to replace all of the revenue from the prior period just to be in a position to then grow. For products like iPhone, upgrading is responsible for approximately 75% of revenue. The percentage is lower – closer to 50% - for Mac and iPad.

During the pandemic, Apple device upgrading was strong as work from home and online/distance learning drove interest in new(er) devices. This benefit extended to companies paying for their employees to have the latest computing devices (at home).

Over the past 12 to 18 months, device upgrading has slowed across the industry.

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Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY4Q23 Earnings

Welcome to a new week. For today's update, we will kick off my Apple earnings preview with an overview of the setup heading into Thursday’s release. The plan is to continue the earnings preview on Wednesday.

As a reminder, Apple's "Scary Fast" online product event will take place tonight at 8 pm ET. We will talk about the announcements tomorrow.


Setting the Stage for Apple’s FY4Q23 Earnings

The setup heading into Apple earnings on Thursday is trending a tad positive. FY4Q results are notorious for being noisy quarters as supply issues cloud underlying demand for iPhone and Apple Watch. This was especially true this year as iPhone 15 Pro and Phone 15 Pro Max were in short supply at the end of September. The iPad and Mac will also likely fuel some ugly headlines with tough year-over-year compares. However, my expectation includes enough variables moving in the right direction to get Apple over its 4Q23 earnings expectations bar.

  • Margins remain impressive. Management guided close to a 11-year quarterly high for gross margin percentage.

  • Services revenue is trending stronger. Apple has been seeing growth in advertising, cloud services, and the App Store. The impact from price increases in 2022 for Music and TV+ will also help results. When considering Apple’s entire business, Services (and probably Apple Watch) come across as having the most impressive momentum.

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Apple's 3Q23 in Three Charts

Hello everyone. Welcome to Monday and a new week. We will continue our Apple 3Q23 review.

Given how the past few quarters for Apple have contained similar themes, we are going to try something different for this quarter's review. We will focus on three charts that sum up Apple's 3Q23. As we will see, there is quite a bit of consistency on display with each chart. (We will cover all of the granular takeaways from Apple's 3Q23 earnings call in tomorrow’s update.)

Before jumping into today’s update, one clarification regarding Friday’s update. When talking about Apple’s hardware margins, the commentary was garbled. That part of the update should have read:

Products (HW) gross margin: 35.4% (vs. my 35.7%). My iPhone gross margin estimate was a tad bit too optimistic. On a year-over-year basis, HW gross margins were up by 85 basis points.


Apple's 3Q23 in Three Charts

Gross Profit Resiliency

3Q23 results: $36B gross profit (up 1.5% from 3Q22)

There has been much attention placed on Apple’s gross margins (and rightly so). Gross margin is cost of goods subtracted from revenue. Based on management commentary, the company will come close to reporting a 11-year quarterly high for gross margin percentage 1Q24. Management provided a 44.0% to 45.0% range. Gross margin percentages don’t tell the full story though. Instead, we need to look at gross profit in absolute terms to obtain a cleaner assessment of Apple’s business.

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Apple’s Paid Subscriptions Growth Reaccelerates, The Case for Higher Apple Gross Margins

Hello everyone.

We will conclude our Apple earnings review by looking at Apple’s paid subscriptions growth and gross margins. There are a few follow-ups that we have not covered yet. The discussion includes Neil’s thoughts on why Apple’s gross margins still have room to move higher.

Let’s jump right in.


Apple’s Paid Subscriptions Growth Reaccelerates

In keeping with its usual disclosure, Apple provided updated comments regarding the number of paid subscriptions across the Apple ecosystem.

Based on Apple’s commentary, here are my estimates for the number of paid subscriptions across Apple’s ecosystem (first party and third party) on a quarterly basis:

  • 1Q20: 482M paid subscriptions

  • 2Q20: 518M

  • 3Q20: 553M

  • 4Q20: 588M

  • 1Q21: 623M

  • 2Q21: 663M

  • 3Q21: 705M

  • 4Q21: 749M

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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 1Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week.

Last Friday, we went over the numbers from Apple’s 1Q23 earnings release. We also looked at two of the major themes from earnings: the significant FX impact on Apple’s results and changing device upgrading trends.

In today’s update, we will focus on Apple’s 1Q23 earnings Q&A session with analysts. Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call. Let’s jump right in.


Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 1Q23 Earnings Q&A With Analysts

NOTE: The following earnings call questions (“Q”) and answers (“Cook” or “Luca”) have been cut, summarized, paraphrased, and rearranged for clarity. To read the full question and answer exchanges, The Motley Fool offers a written transcript here.

Supply Chain

Q: What is the state of Apple’s supply chain? Do you expect to increase inventory levels to insulate from supply disruptions?

Cook: Production is now back to “what we need it to be.” We continue to optimize our supply chain. We now have final assembly for iPhone in three countries. Given all that has happened over the past three years, our supply chain has proven to be resilient.

My response: Apple received a variation

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My Apple 1Q23 Estimates, Expectations by Apple Product Category, Updated Apple Earnings Model (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Apple reports FY1Q23 earnings (results from October to December) on Thursday. Today’s update contains the second half of Neil’s earnings preview. The first half is available here. The update begins with Neil’s granular financial estimates. The discussion then turns to qualitative explanations for each of Apple’s product categories. We conclude with Neil’s updated Apple earnings model and how the model has changed over the past three months. Access to Neil’s Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.

Let’s jump into today’s update.


My Apple 1Q23 Estimates

Here are my granular estimates for Apple’s 1Q23:

  • Revenue: $123.0B (consensus: $121.2B)

  • Overall gross margin: 42.8% (guidance: 42.5% to 43.5%)

  • Gross margin (HW): 37.0%

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Setting the Stage for Apple 1Q23 Earnings, About AAPL’s Move Higher, Looking Ahead at Apple’s 2Q23 (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week.

Apple reports FY1Q23 earnings (results from October to December) on Thursday. We kick off today’s update with Neil’s thoughts and expectations heading into Apple’s earnings. The discussion goes over implications found with AAPL’s recent outperformance to the market. The update concludes with some of Neil’s early thoughts regarding how Apple’s 2Q23 (January to March) is trending.

We will go over Neil’s granular Apple financial estimates tomorrow. His revised Apple earnings model will also be ready.

Let’s jump into today’s update.


Setting the Stage for Apple 1Q23 Earnings

Heading into Apple’s earnings release on Thursday, expectations for what Apple will announce remain muted. Even though Apple shares are up 10% so far in 2023, the move doesn’t necessarily correspond with consensus believing Apple’s results and guidance will surprise to the upside. More on that shortly.

Low or muted expectations for Apple’s results may come as somewhat of a surprise. The company’s 4Q22 results were decent. Here was a very quick summary:

“Despite facing major FX headwinds, Apple’s ecosystem remained on track in 4Q22. The company reported all-around solid 4Q22 results. The few areas of weakness (iPad and Services came in below my expectations) were offset by iPhone, Mac, and Apple Watch sales strength.”

While 1Q23 guidance was a tad weak with revenue growth coming in about 200 basis points lower versus my (adjusted) expectations – check out our 4Q22 earnings review here for the details as to how that number was derived - Tim Cook and CFO Luca Maestri sounded

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Apple’s Transportation Ambition, Tesla 4Q22 Deliveries, Tesla’s Problem (Daily Update)

We begin with some words on Project Titan. Two weeks ago, the newest Above Avalon Report, “Project Titan: Apple’s Transportation Ambition,” was published. The discussion then turns to Tesla. The company reported 4Q22 delivery data. We go over the numbers and what Neil views as a problem for Tesla.


Hello everyone. Welcome to 2023.

If you took time off, I hope it was a good and relaxing stretch. Some people are still away from the office this week, so we will use the next two days to return to a regular routine.

Several members emailed me over the break about Apple topics and developments that popped up in the news (China, stock price volatility, demand issues, risks in 2023). We will get to those topics, including my broader thoughts heading into 2023.

For today, we will focus on a topic that was initially not going to be on my “key discussion topics” list for 2023: electric vehicles.

Let’s jump right in.


Apple’s Transportation Ambition

Two weeks ago, the newest Above Avalon Report, “Project Titan: Apple’s Transportation Ambition” was published. You can find the report in your inbox – it was sent out December 22th at 10:48 pm ET. To those members who recently joined, you can access the report via the archive here.

Having a report dedicated to Project Titan has been on my to-do list for some time. It had become difficult for members to go through dozens of updates to piece together the history and motivation behind Project Titan.

Over the years, the Project Titan topic has become unwieldy at times. Periodic reporting has had a very short-term perspective, rarely providing readers the big picture. One is typically left with the impression that Titan is a revolving door within Apple with management constantly changing long-term objectives. That’s not reality.

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Apple Year in Review 2022 (Financial Strategy) - Daily Update

Hello everyone.

Happy Tuesday.

Reports. A new Above Avalon Report will be published on Thursday – December 22nd. Keep an eye out for it in your email inbox. Those with the podcast add-on will see the new episode appear in your podcast players shortly thereafter.

Above Avalon Gifts - DEADLINE. The final day to gift an Above Avalon subscription is Saturday (December 24th). The gifting page will be taken down on December 24th at 10 pm EST. While all gifted subscriptions will officially begin on January 4th, 2023, your gift recipient will be able to use their subscription as soon as they are informed of the gift. This means gift recipients will have access to the member archive, and the daily podcast / Inside Orchard if that is their purchased gift, over the holiday break.

Thank you to those of you who have already purchased gift memberships this holiday season. Gifting volume has already exceeded last year’s volume. A big thank you to those members who purchased gifts. More information on Above Avalon Gifts (and payment forms) is available here.

Let’s jump into today’s update.


Apple Year in Review 2022 (Financial Strategy)

For Apple, one way of recapping the past 12 months is to look at the company from two perspectives: products and financials. In yesterday’s update, we looked at Apple's product strategy. Today, we will look at Apple's financials.

(For today’s discussion, we will look at FY numbers, which reflect September 2021 to September 2022 trends. If there are significant differences between FY22 and CY22 results, additional mention will be made.)

Due to the pandemic and the resulting impact on shipping logistics, supply chains, and component availability, it’s been a few years since we had a clean look at Apple’s growth fundamentals. Strong revenue growth in 2021 (33%) as a result of an easy year-over-year contributed to slowing revenue growth across the board in 2022 (8%). Backing out FX impact, Apple would have seen double-digit revenue growth.

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Measuring Apple Watch’s Sales Potential, Apple Contemplating Apple TV Ad Play, ByteDance Planning Spotify Battle (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. We will kick off today's update with one follow-up to yesterday's Apple Watch discussion.


Measuring Apple Watch’s Sales Potential

Yesterday, we talked about Apple Watch sales and adoption trends up to the end of September 2022.

As for looking forward, there is no near-term ceiling as to the percent of iPhone users who will embrace Apple Watch. The Apple Watch ushered in a paradigm shift in computing, even if consensus still isn't willing to acknowledge the shift. Since wearables are capable of making technology more personal, there will be a natural evolution involving consumers gradually finding spots in their lives for wearables.

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Nike 1Q23 Earnings, Tesla 3Q22 Vehicle Deliveries, Wall Street's Apple Anxiety (Daily Update)

Hello everyone. Welcome to a new week. Today's update will kick off with operating results from two consumer-oriented companies (Nike and Tesla). We will then bring Apple into the discussion when going over broader observations and takeaways.


Nike 1Q23 Earnings

Here’s the WSJ:

“Nike Inc. has said it didn’t have enough inventory to meet consumer demand for the past two years. Now, it has too much—and the sneaker giant needs to step up discounts to clear out items.

The company on Thursday said inventories rose 44% to $9.7 billion in the latest quarter, and higher discounts and freight costs squeezed profit margins. Executives said they would mark down more goods, especially apparel, heading into the holidays.

Shares of Nike tumbled about 10% in late trading following its quarterly report.

The results are the latest sign of how rapidly retailers and manufacturers of everything from fertilizer to furniture have found themselves with a surplus of goods, after two years where they scrambled to have enough to sell during the pandemic.

‘We are taking decisive action to clear excess inventory,’ Nike finance chief Matthew Friend said during a call Thursday to discuss the latest results."

Anecdotally, my most recent Nike purchase, which included some summer apparel, arrived faster than any previous Nike order. It would appear that whichever regional hub my items shipped from had plenty of inventory with the shipping company also having the required capacity as well.

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More information about Above Avalon membership, including the full list of benefits and privileges, is available here.

Apple FY3Q22 Earnings Recap

Two weeks ago, Apple reported a solid FY3Q22 (April to June) given the tough year-over-year compare and considerable FX headwind. In terms of good news, supply chain issues, component shortages, and COVID-related headwinds appear to have bottomed for Apple. When it comes to bad news, some parts of Apple’s business are getting hit by inflation and slowing economic growth more than others.

Here are Apple’s reported 3Q22 results versus my expectations with brief commentary for each item.

  • Revenue: $83.0 (vs. my $85.9B estimate). Results missed my estimate due to a larger than expected headwind from FX, a larger than expected supply shortage with Mac, and macro issues impacting Wearables, Home, and Accessories.

  • EPS: $1.20 (vs. my $1.25).

  • iPhone revenue: $40.7B (vs. my $39.9B). That’s a good iPhone revenue number that doesn’t raise any yellow or red flags to me.

  • Services revenue: $19.6B (vs. my $20.1B). Results missed primarily on a larger than expected headwind from FX.

  • Wearables / Home / Accessories revenue: $8.1B (vs. my $9.4B). This was a weak number which Apple attributed to a “cocktail of headwinds.”

  • Mac revenue: $7.4B (vs. my $8.9B). Apple experienced major issues with supply as the Mac was the product category impacted the most by COVID lockdowns closing factories in China.

  • iPad revenue: $7.2B (vs. my $7.6B). Apple experienced ongoing issues with iPad supply.

  • Overall gross margin: 43.3% (vs. my 43.3%)

  • Services gross margin: 71.5% (vs. my 72.0%)

  • Products (HW) gross margin: 34.5% (vs. my 34.5%)

Breaking down the $2.9B revenue miss to my estimate, there were two primary drivers:

  • $1.5B revenue miss due to Mac supply not being as good as thought.

  • $1.3B revenue miss due to weaker Wearables, Home, and Accessories.

Even though Apple missed my (elevated) expectations, the company reported a 3Q22 beat to consensus as revenue came in about $2B stronger than sell-side analysts were expecting. The beat was due to stronger iPhone revenue as most analysts were expecting something more like $36B to $38B of iPhone revenue (vs. the $40.7B reported figure). EPS came in $0.04 above consensus as Apple’s margins came in slightly better than consensus thought as well.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this article. Members can read the full article here.

The full article includes the following sections:

  • Apple’s 3Q22: The Key Numbers

  • iPhone Sales Resiliency

  • Apple Ecosystem Growth Slows

  • Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 3Q22 Earnings Q&A With Analysts

  • Notes From Apple’s 3Q22 10-Q

  • Tracking Apple’s Paid Subscriptions

  • Apple's Share Buyback Update

  • My Revised Apple Financial Estimates

An audio version of the article is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the add-on is found here.


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Apple's WWDC 2022 (Daily Updates Recap)

Earlier this month, I flew out to Cupertino to attend Apple’s in-person WWDC event.

The best way of describing the event at Apple Park was Apple getting back into the swing of hosting in-person events. Excluding the masks and hand sanitizer stations, it felt like a usual in-person Apple event. There was a waiting area for press, hundreds of Apple Retail greeters with an infectiously-positive mood, and a product demo area for the media following the keynote.

My estimate is there were 200 to 250 members of the press and media in attendance, including some international press. That’s a smaller crowd that usual. As for developers, there were approximately 1,000. In terms of Apple employees, my best count was that 2,000, possibly even as many as 2,500, watched the keynote.

The event also served as Apple’s first “open house” for its massive circular ring building at Apple Park. All prior Apple Park events for the press took place at Steve Jobs Theater which is located on the other side of Apple Park. For those events, Apple was careful not to have any visitors stray to other parts of the campus.

The Ring at Apple Park (Above Avalon)

The keynote viewing area, as shown below, was intelligently thought out. Apple opened the giant glass walls found in the employee cafeteria to create an indoor / outdoor venue. This served as an adequate solution for getting a lot of people out of the sun. As for those who were baking in the sun, they were given more comfortable, beach-style chairs in return. For the first time, the best seats in the house at an Apple keynote were in the middle of the audience, seated in the shade.

Inside The Ring at Apple Park (Above Avalon)

Interestingly, Apple began airing the taped keynote three minutes earlier than the public streaming. The delay seemed intentional, possibly as a way to encourage live blogging / tweeting since there didn’t seem to be any other reason for starting it early. The largest screen that Apple relied on to show the presentation was shockingly good – the clearest big screen I have ever come across, while the sound system made it seem like I was in an indoor event.

As for why Apple went through the trouble of having ~1,000 developers come on campus despite having an all-virtual WWDC with labs and sessions occurring online, the company missed the community aspect that had become a WWDC tradition. There are clear benefits found with having a virtual WWDC, such as a significant increase in accessibility. However, the face-to-face interactions and social elements that developers experience have been sorely missed the past two years.

My suspicion is that Apple will rely on the event structure again, including in September with the upcoming product event. Apple likely hopes it will be able to host the event inside Steve Jobs Theater. All-in-all, the format worked well, with meticulous planning and preparation throughout. Apple has gotten really good at putting on these massive events. More importantly, an event structure reminiscent of a movie premiere offers a good combination of virtual benefits such as the well-polished taped presentation with animated transitions that can never be replicated in real time and in-person perks like a product demo area.

An Ecosystem Event

WWDC is all about software updates with new hardware sprinkled in from time to time. As Tim Cook put it when concluding the keynote: “[W]e pushed our software platforms forward in some incredible new ways. Introducing features and capabilities that will enable our developers to do amazing work and provide our users with exciting new experiences."

A different way of thinking about WWDC is that it’s Apple’s annual ecosystem event – the one time each year when Apple shows how it is pushing its entire ecosystem forward.

An Above Avalon membership is required to continue reading this article. Members can read the full article here.

The full article includes the following sections:

  • Attending the Event

  • An Ecosystem Event

  • iOS 16 Takeaways

  • The New MacBook Air

  • The iPadOS vs. macOS Debate

  • The Big Surprise Found With Apple Pay Later

  • Revisiting Apple’s Credit Kudos Acquisition

  • CarPlay Mistruths

  • My Full Notes from the Keynote

  • Winners and Losers From WWDC 2022

An audio version of the article is available to members who have the podcast add-on attached to their membership. More information about the add-on is found here.


Above Avalon Membership

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Payment is processed and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. Special Inside Orchard bundle pricing is available for Above Avalon members.

Member Privileges and Benefits

  • Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.

  • Receive Exclusive Reports. Members have access to Neil’s reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business, product, and financial strategy.

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Above Avalon Year in Review (2021)

Heading into 2021, Apple had just gone through one of the more tumultuous years in its existence. As discussed in last year’s Year in Review, the pandemic turned 2020 into a steady stream of unexpected challenges for Apple. Expectations that 2021 would be much smoother turned out to be optimistic. While society did largely open up halfway through the year, which allowed Apple’s retail apparatus to return to normal operations, Apple continued to face once-in-a-few-decades challenges when it came to the supply chain, product manufacturing, and navigating its 154,000 employees through a pandemic.

According to my estimate, Apple experienced $10 billion of unmet demand in 2021 as a result of supply chain issues. This total is on top of lingering demand issues associated with wearables that arose from the pandemic. 

Despite the challenges, 2021 was a record year for Apple on a number of business fronts:

  • Apple sold 260M+ iPhones - a record high for a 12-month period. 

  • Apple sold 25M Macs - a record high for a 12-month period. 

  • The Apple Watch installed base surpassed 100 million people.

Articles 

In 2021, I published 10 Above Avalon articles. In looking through the articles, which are accessible to all, there was one overarching theme: Apple’s ecosystem continues to gain strength and is ready for the next major product category launch (a mixed reality headset). 

Here are a few of my favorite articles published in 2021 (in no particular order):

Apple Has a Decade-Long Lead in Wearables. AssistiveTouch allows one to control an Apple Watch without actually touching the device. A series of hand and finger gestures can be used to control everything from answering a call to ending a workout. The technology is just the latest example of how Apple’s lead in wearables is still being underestimated. The evidence points to Apple having a wearables lead of not just a few years, but more like a decade.

Apple Won the Share Buyback Debate. I receive many questions about Apple from Above Avalon readers, listeners, and members. In previous years, one topic has been far ahead of any other as a source of questions. Everyone wanted to know about Apple’s share buyback program. Something interesting happened in 2020. I received far fewer questions about Apple’s share buyback program. To be precise, I didn’t receive an incoming question about buyback in nine months - from when the stock market put in a bottom in April 2020 to the start of 2021. What explains such a dramatic change? The Apple share buyback debate ended, and Apple was declared the winner.

Apple’s Extremely Quiet Year for M&A. While going through Apple’s 10-K for FY2021, one number jumped out at me. It wasn’t the record iPhone sales, strong margins, or phenomenal free cash flow. Instead, it was the lack of cash spent on M&A. In 2021, Apple spent just $33 million on business acquisitions (M&A). That’s a record low for Apple with Tim Cook as CEO. It’s a number that deserves further investigation as Apple’s M&A strategy and philosophy play a big role in how Apple was able to get to where it is today.

The five most popular Above Avalon articles in 2021, as measured by page views, were:

  1. Apple Has a Decade-Long Lead in Wearables

  2. Designed by Apple in California, Not Assembled in China

  3. Apple Won the Share Buyback Debate

  4. Apple Watch Is Now Worn on 100 Million Wrists

  5. The Future of Apple Retail

Podcast Episodes

There were 11 episodes of the Above Avalon podcast recorded and published in 2021, totaling 4.5 hours. The podcast episodes that correspond to my favorite articles are found below:

Charts and Exhibits

The following charts and exhibits found in Above Avalon articles published in 2021 were among my favorites.

Apple Wearables Unit Sales (2017 to 2021) - from Apple Has a Decade-Long Lead in Wearables

According to my estimate, Apple is on track to sell 105 million wearable devices in 2021. That total represents 40% of the number of iPhones sold during the same time period. Unit sales don’t tell the full story, however. On a new-user basis, Apple is seeing more people enter the wearables arena than buy a new iPhone for the first time.

Note: Apple wearables include Apple Watch, AirPods, and select Beats headphones.

Percentage of Apple Revenue Through Direct Distribution Channel - from The Future of Apple Retail

The percentage of sales going through Apple’s direct distribution has gradually increased in recent years. The increase in sales percentage has likely been boosted by services revenue, more sales going through Apple’s website, and more iPhone upgrading taking place through Apple.

Note: Direct distribution channel includes Apple’s website, Apple stores, and direct sales force.

Apple M&A (Cash Payments) - from Apple’s Extremely Quiet Year for M&A

Since 2006, Apple has spent $20.6 billion on M&A with about half of the total tied to “business acquisitions.” The median is $1 billion per year. However, in 2021, Apple spent just $33 million on business acquisitions. That is the lowest amount since 2009 when Steve Jobs was still Apple CEO.

Daily Updates

In 2021, I published 182 Above Avalon Daily Updates that were available exclusively to Above Avalon members. With each update coming in at approximately 2,000 words, 182 updates are equivalent to five books. This continues to be an industry-leading number when it comes to the amount of Apple business and strategy analysis published. 

When looking over the topics discussed in this year’s daily updates, a few sub themes become apparent:

Project Titan Moving Forward

Along with mixed reality and AR, transportation is one of the largest areas of opportunity when thinking of future Apple products and services. The year turned out to be the busiest one yet when it came to Project Titan news as Apple began to seek supply chain and manufacturing partners.  

Changes in Paid Video Streaming Land

Given the rush of new players into the paid video streaming space in 2020, there was quite a bit of movement in 2021. AT&T’s decision to spin off WarnerMedia was an industry-shaking event. As the months went on, it became clear that many content distribution services were experiencing something equivalent to a pandemic air pocket as subscriber trends became noisy. Netflix and Roku ran into friction while the true new kid on the block (Apple TV+) regained momentum with new shows and movies coming online in the back half of the year.

The App Store’s Day in U.S. Court

The well-publicized Epic Games vs. Apple trial resulted in a resounding legal victory for Apple. It ended up being difficult to grasp just how poor of a job Epic Games did in trying to paint Apple as a monopoly. While the court did order Apple to change its anti-steering provision in the U.S., Apple won a stay by a court of appeals. The outcome with the highest probability is for the anti-steering provision to remain as is which would signal Apple’s very strong legal footing as it pertains to the App Store.

When looking at my daily updates published in 2021, selecting a few favorites out of 196 updates was not easy. The following updates stood out to me (in no particular order):

  • Warren Buffett’s Annual Letter, Apple Isn’t Buffett’s Token “Tech” Stock, Apple, Buffett, and Buyback. We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on Warren Buffett’s 2020 letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders. Berkshire is Apple’s largest individual shareholder. The discussion then turns to why I don’t agree with those claiming Apple is Buffett’s token tech stock. We conclude by looking at share buyback and how the capital return mechanism leads to a wealth transfer event. (Mar 2, 2021)

  • Peloton Recalls All of Its Treadmills, The At-Home Fitness Revolution Needs a Reset, Apple, Fitness Machines, and Gyms. Today’s update will be focused on the at-home fitness industry. It’s a market that Apple moved deeper into a few months ago with Apple Fitness+. A good argument can be made that at-home fitness impacts other Apple devices as well especially Apple Watch and Apple TV. We kick things off with my thoughts on Peloton recalling all of its treadmills. The discussion then turns to why I think the at-home fitness industry needs a reset. The update concludes with how fitness equipment safety, or the lack thereof, impacts Apple and why I continue to think there will be a role for gyms to play in the future. (May 6, 2021)

  • Tesla Buys Bitcoin, Apple and Bitcoin, Apple and Crypto Exchanges. Today’s update will be focused on bitcoin. We begin with news of Tesla buying $1.5B of bitcoin. We then turn to my thoughts on whether or not Apple should follow Tesla into bitcoin. The update concludes with a closer look at RBC Capital Market’s suggestion that Apple should move into cryptocurrency exchanges. We go over why I don’t think the firm’s analysis passes the small test. (Feb 10, 2021)

  • Apple’s Services Journey, A Different Way of Thinking of Apple One, Apple Services Evolution. For the first time in what feels like a long time, the Apple news cycle is taking a breather. This provides us with an opportunity to pursue some original topics. We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on the narrative surrounding Apple’s Services business. Things are starting to change. The discussion then turns to how I think about Apple’s Apple One bundle and how reframing Apple One leads to some interesting questions and ideas as it pertains to the competition. The update concludes with my thoughts on the future factors determining where Apple Services are headed. (Jul 13, 2021)

  • Niantic CEO Pours Cold Water on the Metaverse, Meta Buys Within, The Mistake People Are Making With the Metaverse. We kick things off with my thoughts on Niantic CEO John Hanke’s interview with The Verge’s Nilay Patel on his Decoder podcast. Hanke discussed some of the more intriguing topics and concepts found in the AR/VR/metaverse space. The discussion then turns to Meta (Facebook) buying Within. We go over two items that jumped out at me about the acquisition. The update concludes with the mistake that I see consensus making when it comes to metaverse analysis. (Dec 16, 2021)

  • The Amazon Event, Amazon’s Play for Neighborhoods, Amazon Astro. Today’s update will be focused on Amazon’s product event. We kick things off with my thoughts regarding Amazon’s product strategy involving ambient intelligence. The discussion then turns to Ring’s outsized presence throughout Amazon’s presentation. We go over Amazon’s play for neighborhoods and what is at stake. The update concludes with a closer look at the Amazon Astro. (Sep 29, 2021)

Here are the five most popular daily updates published in 2021 based on page views to AboveAvalon.com. There is naturally a tendency for updates published earlier in the year to outrank more recent updates.

  1. Apple Designer Eugene Whang Left Apple, Apple Industrial Design Turnover, Spotify’s WSJ Op-Ed Against Apple (May 19, 2021)

  2. Peloton Acquires Wearables Company, Peloton vs. Apple Watch, Facebook Talks Up Smartwatch as AR Controller (Mar 23, 2021)

  3. Tesla’s Bitcoin Problem, Apple and Bitcoin Mining, Introducing My FY2022 Estimates for Apple (Feb 11, 2021)

  4. Target to Open Mini Apple Stores, Apple’s Retail Store Growth Strategy, Thursday Q&A (Feb 25, 2021)

  5. Apple Contemplating Apple Watch Explorer Model, Thinking About the Apple Watch Line, Apple Watch Partnerships (Mar 29, 2021)

Just 13% of the daily updates published in 2021 are highlighted in this article. The full archive consisting of all 182 daily updates is available hereAbove Avalon membership is required to access the updates.

Daily Podcast

This was the first full year for the Above Avalon Daily podcast, the private podcast available to members who attached the podcast add-on to their membership. A total of 182 episodes were published, totaling nearly 40 hours of audio. The podcast allows members to consume the daily updates in new and different ways while around the house, on a walk, or in the car. Since launch, reception of the daily podcast has exceeded my expectations with very positive listener feedback. More information on the daily podcast, including a few sample episodes, is found here. Once an Above Avalon member signs up for the daily podcast, all prior episodes become available for listening in podcast players that support private podcasts. 

Inside Orchard (Launched in 2021)

In March, I launched InsideOrchard.com as a home to my unique perspective on technology and its impact on society. Over the past nine months, 40 essays and corresponding podcast episodes were published. Although distinct from the analysis and discussion found with Above Avalon, the two sites can be thought of as siblings. A bundle consisting of both an Above Avalon membership and Inside Orchard subscription, with an accompanying price discount, was purchased by a good percentage of the Above Avalon member base.  

Here’s to 2022

A big thank you goes out to readers, listeners, and members for making 2021 another successful year for Above Avalon. Have a safe and relaxing Christmas, holiday season, and New Year. See you in 2022. - Neil

The Above Avalon 2Q21 Recap

In addition to publishing periodic essays and podcast episodes, which are accessible to everyone, I publish exclusive daily updates all about Apple. These emails contain my perspective and analysis on Apple business, product, and financial strategy, in addition to industry developments. The updates have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple.

During the second quarter of 2021 (April to June), 47 Above Avalon daily updates were published, chronicling the major industry and Apple-specific news stories. Major themes included Apple hosting a virtual WWDC, major developments in the paid video streaming space, bluetooth trackers being put front and center as Apple unveiled AirTags at a spring product event, and tech antitrust legislation / regulation developments.

The Above Avalon 2Q21 Recap begins by going over these major themes and the corresponding daily updates that went over the themes. The focus then shifts to the Above Avalon daily update of the quarter - a daily update that stood out for its Apple analysis.


Major Themes

WWDC 2021

Last month, Apple held its largest event of the year - WWDC. Similar to last year, WWDC 2021 was an impressive one. When considering the breadth of new features announced, no company is in a position to match Apple. By leveraging its ecosystem of products and services to sell premium experiences to a billion people, Apple continues to pull away from the competition.

Video Streaming Industry News

Last year was a big year for paid video streaming as Netflix began to face genuine competition with other paid video bundles. Based on the busy news flow so far in 2021, there continues to be much interest and intrigue found with paid video streaming. The two big industry events that occurred in 2Q21 were AT&T announcing its intention to spin off WarnerMedia with Discovery and Amazon offering $8.5B for MGM. The former is all about AT&T trying to get back to the basics while the latter is about Amazon reducing churn and keeping Prime users as video viewers.

AirTag / Find My Network / Location Layers

After more than a year of rumor head fakes, Apple finally unveiled its answer for bluetooth trackers at a virtual product event in April. AirTag and the broader idea of finding / locating devices in the physical world is a precursor to Apple building location layers, which will be crucial for the company’s move into AR.

Antitrust Legislation / Regulation

Last month, focus was placed on Washington as six anti-tech bills moved from the antitrust subcommittee to the broader judiciary committee. Apple not only held behind closed door discussions with some lawmakers, but also unveiled its public response to the bills by publishing a white paper on iOS side loading and funding more analysis into the App Store ecosystem. As the bills progressed, it became easier to see where opposition to the bills will materialize.

There were 30 additional updates which covered various Apple topics, tech industry developments, and ideas that were of interest to me. The following updates in particular stood out:


An Above Avalon membership is required to read the preceding updates. To become a member, sign up in seconds using one of the following signup forms:

After becoming a member, you will receive instructions on accessing the daily updates archive. Once you are set up, click on any of the updates above to be bought directly to that update.

More information on membership is available here. This includes customization options such as receiving the updates in podcast form and bundling an Inside Orchard subscription (my new site with tech-related analysis) at a special discounted rate.


Daily Update of the Quarter

In June, Apple unveiled Beats Studio Buds for $150. The move led me to investigate Apple’s broader headphones strategy. For non-members, the following update provides a great feel for the length, detail, and analysis that is found in every daily update.

The following was sent out to members on June 17th.

June 17th, 2021: Dissecting Apple’s Headphones Line, Apple’s Headphones Strategy, Sizing Up Apple’s Headphones Business

Hello everyone. Given how Beats Studio Buds continue to be on my mind, today’s update is going to be a bit different as we take a deeper dive into Apple’s headphones strategy. We will examine Apple's headphones line, discuss the strategy found with both AirPods and Beats headphones, and conclude with a look at Apple headphones financials.

Dissecting Apple’s Headphones Line

Apple sells three AirPods-branded products:

  • AirPods (includes H1 chip) for $159. Notes: The model with wireless charging case is $199.

  • AirPods Pro (H1 chip) for $249. Notes: Has a shorter stem than AirPods and includes active noise cancellation, transparency mode, spatial audio (with head tracking), and multiple size tips.

  • AirPods Max (includes two H1 chips) for $549. Notes: Comes in five colors and includes active noise cancellation, transparency mode, and spatial audio (with head tracking)

Looking at just those three headphones, AirPods Pro is likely the most popular and best-selling. Apple is now able to use AirPods Max as a price anchor, which makes the $249 for AirPods Pro look even more reasonable than before. The jump from AirPods to AirPods Pro is substantial not only because there is a visible difference between the two, which should not be underestimated as driving purchasing behavior, but also due to a notable expansion in features.

In addition to AirPods, Apple sells a number of Beats-branded headphones (all of which are available in multiple colors).

  • Beats Flex (includes W1 chip) for $50

  • Beats EP for $130. Notes: A wired pair of headphones.

  • Beats Studio Buds for $150. Notes: Truly wireless headphones that include active noise cancellation, transparency mode, spatial audio.

  • Powerbeats (H1 chip) for $150

  • Powerbeats Pro (H1 chip) for $170 promotional rate / $250 regular . Notes: Truly wireless headphones.

  • Beats Solo3 Wireless (W1 chip) for $200

  • Solo Pro (H1 chip)for $300. Notes: Includes active noise cancellation, transparency mode.

  • Beats Studio3 Wireless (W1 chip) for $350. Notes: Includes active noise cancellation.

Apple’s H1 chip is the successor to the W1 chip offering better power management, more talk time, faster connection times when switching between Apple devices, and Hey Siri integration.

The first thing that jumps out to me when comparing AirPods to Beats is how much broader the Beats portfolio is compared to the AirPods line (eight Beats models versus just three AirPods models). The other item that is noteworthy is the degree to which Beats headphones include either a W1 or H1 chip. After years of updates, just two Beats headphones, one of which was just announced, lack Apple silicon. This explains why pretty much all of Apple’s Beats revenue has been included within my “Apple wearables” unit sales and revenue estimates.

The fact that pretty much every Beats headphones model contains Apple silicon also shows why Beats Studio Buds present a challenge for me in terms of whether or not to change my “must include Apple silicon” requirement for a product to be included next to AirPods and Apple Watch as an Apple wearable.

One thing that is worth clarifying from yesterday’s update: Despite not including the H1 chip, Beats Studio Buds include Hey Siri integration. This is one of the main reasons for referring to Beats Studio Buds, along with every W1/H1 pair of Beats headphones, as an Apple wearable.

Apple’s Headphones Strategy

Controlling sound is one way of delivering impactful and memorable user experiences. This is a strategy that Apple has been developing for decades .The iPod changed the way we consumed music on the go, offering a much better experience than existing mobile listening options at the time. Then, the iPhone redefined what it meant to bring sound on the go to the mass market. Now, AirPods have been born out of the belief that there isn't a place for wires in a wearables world.

With each product category, the guiding principles are to deliver superior experiences. Along those lines, consider the following features that Apple has rolled out for AirPods over the past four years since launch:

  • Active noise cancellation

  • Transparency mode

  • Spatial audio (with head tracking)

  • Conversation boost (announced at WWDC 2021)

These features, some may also call them technologies, end up being experiences for sound on the go. This is a key reason why all Apple headphones with either a W1 or H1chip can be thought of as a platform. We are seeing Apple continue to announce new features for its audio platform.

Going forward, health tracking and monitoring capabilities are certainly worth investigating with wireless headphones in mind. In addition, third-party developer support for AirPods seems inevitable as we move into the AR and mixed reality era.

Beats headphones are also part of Apple’s sound-on-the-go strategy. However, Beats serves a different target market than AirPods, which ends up positioning Beats as a compliment to AirPods.

While there is likely some overlap between Beats and AirPods addressable markets, Apple is using the Beats brand to tap into markets that may want a bit more customization than what is found with AirPods. Even if Beats eats into AirPods sales, Apple is not going to be worried or upset as they would much rather be the one eating into AirPods sales than having competitors grab traction.

Turning to Apple’s headphones pricing strategy, if we take the granular information about Apple’s different headphone models from above and look at the line just in terms of prices, we arrive at the following:

  • $50

  • $150

  • $150

  • $159

  • $170

  • $200

  • $249

  • $300

  • $350

  • $549

The following graph makes it easier to analyze Apple’s headphone pricing spectrum:

Note: The $159 AirPods is included under $150 while the $170 Powerbeats Pro is marked under $175.

Two big observations from the preceding exhibit:

  1. The sweet spot for Apple wireless headphones is in the $150 to $200 range. If you are competing against Apple (AirPods or Beats), it will be tough to price your product above this range. As for AirPods and Beats forming some kind of price umbrella for competitors to undercut Apple, AirPods are routinely available for less than $150 at third-party retailers. Best Buy currently has AirPods at $130 and AirPods Pro for $200. Weaker headphone brands have offerings in the $25 to $50 range but these products are not serious contenders to AirPods. One reason many people buy AirPods is to be seen wearing AirPods. It’s also not easy for companies selling $25 to $50 pairs of wireless headphones to make much money while also trying to match the overall user experience found with $130 to $160 AirPods.

  2. The $549 AirPods Max sure do seem like an outlier going by price. Much of that dynamic likely reflects Apple running with unit sales assumptions for the number of people interested in over-ear headphones and pricing AirPods Max accordingly with the goal of maximizing overall gross margin dollars.

Sizing Up Apple’s Headphones Business

Here are my estimates for Apple headphones revenue (includes both AirPods and Beats headphones)

  • 2017: $2.1B

  • 2018: $3.8B

  • 2019: $7.3B

  • 2020: $12.0B

  • 2021E: $14.5B

Note: The FY2021 total does not include Beats Studio Buds.

On a year-over-year basis, Apple headphones revenue is growing by 15% to 20%. This growth rate is lower than the ~30% seen last year. AirPods sales have slowed a bit due to a combination of factors including the pandemic impacting commuting and replacement sales, lack of updates, and a slowdown in upgrading.

In order to put the $14.5B of revenue in context, the total represents just 4% of Apple’s overall revenue in FY2021E. Compared to iPad or Mac, Apple headphones revenue is trending at about 40% of the revenue seen with those product categories. As for the Apple Watch versus AirPods revenue race, it looks like Apple Watch revenue still exceeds headphones revenue by about $1B per year.

Of the $14.5B headphones revenue total for FY2021E, $2.4B or 16% is from Beats headphones with a W1 or H1 chip. That may come as a surprise to some people who haven’t paid much attention to Beats. However, the Beats brand has been strong for many years, especially in certain verticals like sports. Customer awareness of the brand is up there, which is one reason why Beats headphones include the Beats logo. Since Apple has an even stronger brand relative to Beats, Apple device industrial design is increasingly becoming a type of logo (24-inch iMac, iPhone notch, Apple Watch, AirPods).

One quick note regarding how my Apple headphones revenue estimates are derived. For the past few quarters, Apple has compared the size of its wearables business to that of Fortune 500 firms. In the past, Apple even provided some clues regarding the year-over-year change in wearables revenue. These clues are very helpful in estimating Apple Watch revenue and unit sales and then backing into estimates for both AirPods and Beats. This is one reason why estimating Apple wearables financials is like putting together a giant puzzle.

Turning to unit sales, here are my estimates for the number of headphones Apple sold:

  • 2017: 12M

  • 2018: 24M

  • 2019: 42M

  • 2020: 60M

  • 2021E: 70M

Note: The FY2021 total does not include Beats Studio Buds.

My ASP (average selling price) assumptions for AirPods has increased from about $150 out of the gate to more than $200 today. My Beats ASP assumption is a little over $200.

Seventy million headphones sold per year represents about 15% of the devices that Apple ships annually.

My estimate is that Apple headphones sales to new users is less than the ~75% seen with Apple Watch. This reflects a decent amount of AirPods owners either upgrading to AirPods Pro or simply getting a second (or third) pair. The heavier reliance on sales to upgraders exposes AirPods to more revenue and unit sales volatility than is seen with Apple Watch.