Apple Releases Apple Intelligence Ads, The Controversy Surrounding the Ads, My Verdict
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple Releases Apple Intelligence Ads
The Controversy Surrounding the Ads
My Verdict
Hello everyone. We are going to shift back to talking product. Today’s update will be focused on Apple Intelligence ads, some of which are causing quite the stir online. The tentative plan for tomorrow is that we will talk screens in the home.
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Microsoft 3Q24 Earnings, Amazon 3Q24 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Microsoft 3Q24 Earnings
Amazon 3Q24 Earnings
In today’s update, we will go over Microsoft and Amazon earnings.
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Meta 3Q24 Earnings, Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Numbers, Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Earnings Calls
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Meta 3Q24 Earnings
Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Numbers
Three Takeaways From Meta’s 3Q24 Earnings Calls
Hello everyone. We will continue our Big Tech CY3Q24 earnings reviews with Meta. We will first go over my big picture overview. The discussion will then turn to over my takeaways from the earnings release and earnings conference call(s).
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Alphabet 3Q24 Earnings, Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Numbers, Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Earnings Call
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Alphabet 3Q24 Earnings
Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Numbers
Three Takeaways from Alphabet’s 3Q24 Earnings Call
Hello everyone.
We are going to try something new with Big Tech 3Q24 earnings reviews. After going over a very big picture overview of what each company reported, we will then discuss three takeaways from the numbers (i.e. the earnings release) and then three takeaways from the earnings conference call. Those call takeaways will probably end up having a more qualitative feel to them. A goal found with this approach is to emphasize the most important items from earnings versus just going through a running collection of observations with varying degrees of importance. We will see how this new format goes. Today’s update will be focused on Alphabet’s earnings.
One quick update to yesterday’s discussion. The following was mentioned:
“It's certainly possible that Apple’s top shareholders don’t mind the current dividend payout ratio and aren’t clamoring for Apple to pay a higher payout as it means they would be paying more in tax (there’s no tax associated directly with share buyback).”
Thank you to member Ravi for reaching out via email to remind me that there is a new 1% excise tax facing share buyback. While my commentary was strictly about taxes facing shareholders (there is no direct tax impact on shareholders related to buyback), Apple is liable for the 1% excise tax. At 1%, the tax is not significant enough to sway strategy or capital return preference.
Let’s jump into today’s update.
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Apple’s Capex-Light Business Model, Apple’s Excess Cash Position, Apple Buyback vs. Apple Dividends
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple’s Capex-Light Business Model
Apple’s Excess Cash Position
Apple Buyback vs. Apple Dividends
Hello everyone.
The initial plan was to begin going over Big Tech CY3Q24 earnings. There are a few new ideas worth trying out to get caught up quickly and efficiently. While we will still do that, a few incoming questions from members late yesterday led me to change the schedule around.
For the past two weeks, we have gone deep into Apple’s latest financial results. Yesterday, we went over everything share buyback. A somewhat simple question was raised. Is Apple doing the right thing?
The company is generating $100B+ of free cash flow per year and pouring it all into share buyback (and dividends). Is that the right strategy given where we are in the current generative AI / spatial computing environment?
It’s a worthy discussion to have in today’s update.
There are two topics in particular worth addressing:
Is Apple investing enough in its business?
Is Apple making the prudent decision with what is deemed excess cash?
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Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High, A “Shrinking” Apple
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple Share Buyback Hits Record High
A “Shrinking” Apple
Happy Tuesday. Today’s update will have a share buyback theme. While we received a few new buyback data points in Apple’s 2024 10-K, the discussion won’t be focused on just 4Q24 trends.
Let’s jump right in.
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My Notes from Apple’s 2024 10-K
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
My Notes from Apple’s 2024 10-K
Hello everyone. Today’s update will conclude our Apple 4Q24 earnings review. We will go over Apple’s 10-K filing for 2024. There are a few remaining comments to go over regarding Apple’s share buyback. We can do that tomorrow.
Published at the end of the fiscal year (Apple's fiscal year ends in September), 10-K filings include a more in-depth examination into Apple’s financials and business versus the 10-Q filings published at the end of 1Q, 2Q, and 3Q. Said another way, 10-Ks are a treasure trove of granular financial data. We will also use this opportunity to recap some of Apple’s financial totals for FY2024 and how they compared to prior years.
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Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Reading Between the Lines of Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings Q&A With Analysts
Instead of just recapping the question and answer exchanges that occurred on Apple’s 4Q24 earnings call, we will go over Neil’s thoughts / response to each exchange. This will allow Neil to go beyond what was talked about on the call.
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President Trump Wins Blowout Election, Impacts on Apple, Tim Cook’s Key Role
Hello everyone. We are going to take a detour and talk about the U.S. presidential election. A second Trump term will present more work for Apple, although the resulting upside is significantly greater than what would have been found with a Kamala Harris presidency. Let’s jump into today’s update.
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Apple 4Q24 Earnings Review: A Few Apple Services Surprises
Hello everyone.
For today’s update, we will address another Apple question that has generated buzz within financial circles: How is Apple’s financial performance being impacted by Services? There are a few surprises to uncover.
Let’s jump right in.
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Reviewing Apple’s 4Q24: What Is Apple’s “Real” Growth Rate?
Hello everyone.
Welcome to a new week. Much of our focus this week will be given to reviewing Apple’s earnings. As we discussed last Friday, even though results were close to my estimates, there is value found in drilling down into some of the numbers and specific business lines.
In addition to picking apart Apple’s earnings conference call, we will try something a little bit different this earnings review cycle by addressing a few Apple questions that have generated buzz within financial circles. One such topic will drive today’s discussion: Apple’s growth rate.
Things are a bit crazy here in the U.S. with the presidential election taking place tomorrow (Tuesday). Depending on when a winner is called, we will interrupt our earnings review to go over my thoughts on potential Apple impacts.
Let’s jump in.
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Initial Thoughts on Apple’s 4Q24 Earnings
Hello everyone. There’s a lot to say regarding Apple’s earnings. In this special Friday edition of Above Avalon Daily, we will go over my initial thoughts. The discussion will continue on Monday.
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Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros, My AAPL 4Q24 Estimates
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros
My AAPL 4Q24 Estimates
Hello everyone. We are at that point of the week where some triage is needed. There is a lot of stuff unfolding and not enough time to cover it all. Big Tech earnings are now in full swing. We will discuss earnings from Apple competitors in due time. For now, our attention is needed elsewhere.
Programming Note. With Apple reporting FY4Q24 earnings tomorrow (Thursday), there won’t be a daily update published Thursday. Instead, there will be a special edition Friday update that goes over my thoughts and reactions to Apple’s earnings.
Apple Earnings Preview. Yesterday’s update, which was sent out very early today in the AM ET, went over the big picture heading into Apple's earnings on Thursday. The FY4Q24 expectations game is slightly biased to the upside for Apple. Compared to expectations facing Apple ahead of 3Q24 earnings, things are a tad tougher for Apple to surprise to the upside. However, the general framework still has an upward bias. Today’s discussion will continue my earnings preview so that we are fully prepared for tomorrow.
Updated MacBook Pros. For Day 3 of Apple’s Mac week, the company unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Many of the broader points regarding Apple Intelligence and Mac strategy were discussed in the two most recent updates. There is no need to reiterate those points again with MacBook Pro. However, there are a few observations about the machines worth going over. We will quickly go over those (250-300 words) and then switch over to Apple’s earnings.
Financial Models Add-on. There are several updates to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models coming down the pipeline. In looking over the models a few weeks ago, my preference ended up being to wait until we got closer to 4Q24 earnings to update all of the models at once. Accordingly, my updated installed base models, which influenced my 4Q24 estimates, will go live tomorrow for those members with the Financial Models add-on. In addition, my updated Apple earnings model will be uploaded to the add-on in the AM. As a reminder to those of you with the add-on, to access the financial models, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here) and once signed in you will see the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized download page. More information on the Financial Models add-on is available here.
Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros
Earlier today, Apple unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Along with a press release, Apple taped a 14-minute presentation (available here). For those of you who have watched the iMac and Mac mini presentations, the MacBook Pro presentation relied on the same general playbook. The MacBook Pro update was anchored by Apple Intelligence and Apple Silicon. The relevant presentation sections were tailored to show off workflows that would likely be given to MacBook Pro.
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The Redesigned Mac Mini, The Setup Facing Apple Ahead of 4Q24 Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
The Redesigned Mac Mini
The Setup Facing Apple Ahead of 4Q24 Earnings
Hello everyone. Today's update will kick off with new Apple product news, followed by the start of our Apple 4Q24 earnings preview. The earnings talk will flow into tomorrow’s update.
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A Different Kind of Apple Product Unveiling, The Updated iMac, Apple’s Mac Pitch to Windows Users
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
A Different Kind of Apple Product Unveiling
The Updated iMac
Apple’s Mac Pitch to Windows Users
Hello everyone. Welcome to Monday.
This is shaping up to be a busy week. Earlier today, Apple unveiled an updated iMac. As we will discuss shortly, Apple has pointed to more Mac news coming down the pipeline this week. We also have Apple Intelligence launching today.
On Thursday (Halloween), Apple reports FY4Q24 earnings.
Today’s update will focus on the updated iMac. The tentative plan will be to begin talking about Apple’s earnings tomorrow with that discussion rolling into Wednesday.
Let’s jump in.
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