Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

The CrowdStrike / Microsoft Outage Will Benefit Apple

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:

  • The CrowdStrike / Microsoft Outage Will Benefit Apple

Today's update will be dedicated to discussing the CrowdStrike / Microsoft catastrophe which is still impacting the corporate world.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Looking to License Movies for Apple TV+, Warner Bros. Discovery Thinking of Splitting Itself, Skydance Merges With Paramount

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Looking to License Movies for Apple TV+

  • Warner Bros. Discovery Thinking of Splitting Itself

  • Skydance Merges With Paramount

Given a busy news flow, we are going to stay in video streaming land for one more update. We begin by going over a report pegging Apple as looking to license more movies for Apple TV+. The discussion then turns to Warner Bros. Discovery, Skydance, and Paramount.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Churn vs. Engagement in Paid Video Streaming, Disney Looking to Boost Streaming Engagement, Implications for Apple TV+

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Churn vs. Engagement in Paid Video Streaming

  • Disney Looking to Boost Streaming Engagement

  • Implications for Apple TV+

Today's update will take us to the paid video streaming industry. We begin with a closer look at some churn vs. engagement data for paid video streaming. The discussion then turns to Disney looking to boost engagement within its streaming properties. We conclude with a look at some implications regarding engagement and Apple TV+.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Pushes Apple Watch for Kids, Apple Watch SE 3 Rumors, Apple Watch New User Trends

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Pushes Apple Watch for Kids

  • Apple Watch SE 3 Rumors

  • Apple Watch New User Trends

We begin by examining Apple’s new minisite: “Apple Watch For Your Kids.” The discussion then turns to Apple Watch SE 3 and its connection to Apple’s sales pitch to parents. The update concludes with a look at my Apple Watch unit sales growth figures, new user totals, and adoption figures.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Microsoft and Apple Give Up OpenAI Observer Board Seats, AI Regulation Silliness, A Few Apple TV+ Observations

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Microsoft and Apple Give Up OpenAI Observer Board Seats

  • AI Regulation Silliness

  • A Few Apple TV+ Observations

We kick things off with my thoughts on changes to OpenAI’s non-voting observer board seats. The discussion then turns to why so much of these attempts to regulate AI come across as silly. We conclude with a few Apple TV+ observations that have been on my mind. “Dark Matter” became the latest Apple TV+ series to be placed on my watched list.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Amazon Unveils Updated Echo Spot, Amazon’s Data Center Spending Aggressiveness, Amazon’s AI Predicament

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Amazon Unveils Updated Echo Spot

  • Amazon’s Data Center Spending Aggressiveness

  • Amazon’s AI Predicament

Today’s update will have an Amazon theme. We begin with my thoughts on Amazon bringing the Echo Spot back. The discussion then turns to Amazon’s shocking level of data center spending commitments. We conclude with Amazon finding itself in an AI predicament involving Alexa and AWS.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Given Observer Board Seat at OpenAI, A Phil Schiller Renaissance

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Given Observer Board Seat at OpenAI

  • A Phil Schiller Renaissance

We begin with my thoughts on Apple being given an observer board seat at OpenAI. The discussion then turns to Apple’s Phil Schiller, who reportedly will fill Apple’s seat on OpenAI’s board. In some ways, this new stage for Schiller comes across as something of a renaissance.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Wall Street Warms up to Apple, AAPL Valuation Update

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Wall Street Warms up to Apple

  • AAPL Valuation Update

Over at Above Avalon’s sibling site, Inside Orchard, my essay last week, "Big Tech Is Winning Over Wall Street," went over a Wall Street observation that has been on my mind for the past few weeks.

While NVIDIA was capturing many hearts and minds on Wall Street, a larger story was quietly unfolding in the background. Wall Street was turning decidedly more bullish on the broader Big Tech bucket (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Meta). The change in tone isn’t just attributable to AI either. That may come across as a shocking stance to hold - the Inside Orchard essay goes into more of my thinking.

For today, we will keep our focus specifically to how Wall Street is warming up to Apple. The discussion then turns to an examination of AAPL valuation metrics (forward P/E, EV/FCF, and free cash flow yield).

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

More on Apple Device Longevity, iPhone Upgrading, Measuring Apple HW vs. Services Growth Potential

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • More on Apple Device Longevity

  • iPhone Upgrading

  • Measuring Apple HW vs. Services Growth Potential

Given where we finished last week, there are a few follow-up discussions worth pursuing. We talk about how Apple devices are lasting longer. The discussion then turns to iPhone upgrading and the difference between iPhone average lifespan and upgrade cycle. We conclude with a look at where Apple’s growth potential is found (HW vs. Services).

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Talks up Device Longevity, Apple Provides New Clues for Estimating iPhone Upgrade Cycle, Google and Samsung Announce Product Events

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Talks up Device Longevity

  • Apple Provides New Clues for Estimating iPhone Upgrade Cycle

  • Google and Samsung Announce Product Events

Today’s discussion will begin with a new document that Apple published regarding device longevity. This will then bring us to the iPhone upgrade cycle. We conclude with somewhat lighter fare pertaining to tech product launches. Let’s jump in.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Warns of Feature Delays in EU, Apple Accused of Breaking DMA Rules

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Warns of Feature Delays in EU

  • Apple Accused of Breaking DMA Rules

We begin with my thoughts on Apple warning of feature delays in the EU due to the Digital Markets Act (DMA). The discussion then turns to the European Commission finding Apple has broken DMA rules. We discuss a possible natural end state for the cat and mouse game.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Intelligence and Meta Integration Hoopla, Revisiting Apple Intelligence Integration Monetization

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Intelligence and Meta Integration Hoopla

  • Revisiting Apple Intelligence Integration Monetization

We begin with my thoughts on the WSJ’s and Bloomberg’s conflicting reports regarding Apple and Meta in discussions regarding AI integration. The discussion then turns to possible monetization paths for integrating third-party large language models with Apple Intelligence.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Opens First Store in Malaysia, Apple and Emerging Markets, Signal-to-Noise

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Opens First Store in Malaysia

  • Apple and Emerging Markets

  • Signal-to-Noise

Welcome to a new week. Today's update will take us through Apple Retail land. We begin with Apple opening its first store in Malaysia. The discussion will then turn more broadly to Apple’s emerging markets opportunity and the impact such countries can have on Apple’s installed base growth. We conclude with the signal-to-noise topic which came to mind when thinking about Apple’s store opening in Malaysia.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Discontinues Apple Pay Later, A Limit to Apple’s Fintech Ambition, Apple’s Predicament

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Discontinues Apple Pay Later

  • A Limit to Apple’s Fintech Ambition

  • Apple’s Predicament

We begin with my thoughts on Apple discontinuing Apple Pay Later. We go over the “why” behind the move. The discussion then turns to Apple’s fintech ambition. We look at where Apple has likely drawn a line in the sand as to what can be done internally in the fintech space versus partnering with existing institutions. The update concludes with a closer look at Apple’s predicament in the space.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More
Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

WWDC Review: iOS 18, Audio & Home, watchOS 11, iPadOS 18, macOS Sequoia

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:

  • WWDC Review: iOS 18, Audio & Home, watchOS 11, iPadOS 18, macOS Sequoia

Hello everyone. Over the past few updates, we have analyzed approximately half of Apple’s WWDC keynote. Today’s update will conclude our keynote review as we go over iOS 18, Audio & Home (AirPods / tvOS), watchOS 11, iPadOS 18, and MacOS Sequoia.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers).

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More