Apple 2Q20 Earnings Preview (Second Half)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple 2Q20 earnings preview. We go over my financial estimates for Apple’s non-iPhone business (Services, iPad, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories). The discussion includes my Apple Watch and AirPods sales estimates. We also go over my capital return expectations and 3Q20 revenue projection. The update concludes with my updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.)
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The first half of my Apple earnings preview (thoughts on the big picture heading into Apple’s earnings and my iPhone estimates) is available to members here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 900 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Watch Outsells Swiss Watch Industry, Conflicting Reports Regarding Foxconn in China, Apple News Executive Departs Apple
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Watch Outsells Swiss Watch Industry
Conflicting Reports Regarding Foxconn in China
Apple News Executive Departs Apple
We kick off the update with my thoughts on Apple Watch outselling the entire Swiss watch industry in 2019. We go over two subplots found with the news. The discussion then turns to confusion coming out of China regarding Foxconn’s ability to resume Apple device production in the midst of the coronavirus outbreak. The email ends with a closer look at Liz Schimel stepping down as head of business for Apple News. We also go over my primary problem with Apple News+.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
A Paradigm Shift on the Wrist, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
A Paradigm Shift on the Wrist
Updated Apple Earnings Model
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s update with additional comments on the newest Above Avalon article, “Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing.” In particular, we go over an example of how the Apple Watch isn't just addressing tech barriers that have been around for years, but also newer barriers that only recently became visible.
The discussion then turn to my Apple financial estimates. The email includes access to my updated Apple earnings model with revised FY2020 and FY2021 estimates. Above Avalon members have exclusive access to my working Apple earnings model at no additional cost. The model is available as an Excel file that also works with Numbers.
The email concludes with a new installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
What is the likelihood of Apple running their own cellular network in the future?
Why was Apple's Greater China operating segment at the bottom of the growth spectrum in 1Q20 despite facing a particularly easy year-over-year compare?
What are my thoughts regarding the future of HomePod? Do you see Apple continuing to make it better / expanding the lineup or killing it like iPod Hi-Fi?
How much is Apple affecting the Dow Jones index? Has Apple’s growth made the U.S. economy appear better than it is?
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 4Q19 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 4Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.
The 2,400-word email includes the following sections:
The Big Picture
Apple 4Q19: By the Numbers
A Wearables Story
iPad Strength
Non-iPhone Business Momentum
iPhone Divergence
A Lack of China Discussion
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
(The second half of my earnings review focused on the granular takeaways and my full notes from Apple’s earnings report and conference call is available here.)
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 2 – Products and Services Estimates)
Today's email includes the second part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview. We go over my financial estimates for the iPhone business (revenue, unit sales, and average selling price) and Apple’s non-iPhone business (Services, iPad, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories). The discussion includes my Apple Watch and AirPods sales estimates. We also go over the methodology behind all of my estimates.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The first part of the preview (thoughts on Wall Street expectations and the overall environment heading into next week's earnings) is available to members here. The final part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview going over 1Q20 guidance and my updated earnings model will be sent to members on Thursday (Oct 24th).
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.