Tech Earnings Season Begins, Ad-Fueled Tech in a Pandemic, Roku Pulls 2020 Guidance
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Tech Earnings Season Begins
Ad-Fueled Tech in a Pandemic
Roku Pulls 2020 Guidance
We kick things off with a look at the environment heading into the busy tech earnings season. The discussion then focuses on how the pandemic may treat big tech ( Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Facebook, and Amazon) based on the degree to which a business is dependent on advertising revenue. The update concludes with a look at ad-powered content distribution company, Roku, preannouncing 1Q20 earnings and the company withdrawing full year 2020 guidance. Roku’s ad dependency positions the company differently than its larger competitors.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 900 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Review (Full Notes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple 1Q20 earnings review. We discuss my full notes and focus on the granular takeaways from Apple’s earnings report and conference call.
The 3,100-word email covers 34 different topics.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
(The first half of my earnings review focused on the major themes and takeaways is available here.)
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 1Q20 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.
The 2,500-word email includes the following sections:
The Big Picture
Apple 1Q20: By the Numbers
An iPhone Inflection Point
Products Margins Trough
Wearables Shine
Apple's Narrative on Wall Street Is Changing (Again)
Share Buyback Sustainability
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Preview (Consolidated)
My Apple 1Q20 earnings preview was discussed in three separate daily updates. The various sections are consolidated in this post.
Earnings preview sections:
Setting the Stage
Products and Services Estimates
Coronavirus Risks
2Q20 Guidance
Updated Apple Earnings Model (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit attached to Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.)
Final Thoughts
Above Avalon membership is required to read my 3,900-word Apple 1Q20 earnings preview. Members can read the preview here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - Coronavirus Risks, 2Q20 Guidance, Updated Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - Coronavirus Risks, 2Q20 Guidance, Updated Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)
Today's email concludes my Apple 1Q20 earnings preview. We discuss Apple’s exposure and risks to coronavirus. We then go over my Apple 2Q20 revenue guidance projection and updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership at no additional cost.) The discussion concludes with my final thoughts heading into Apple earnings tomorrow.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The first two parts of my 1Q20 earnings preview are available for members: here (setting the stage) and here (products and services estimates).
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 875 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage), Netflix Earnings, Takeaways from Netflix’s Earnings Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple 1Q20 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)
Netflix Earnings
Takeaways from Netflix’s Earnings Q&A
Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 1Q20 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the big picture when it comes to Apple’s 1Q20 and the expectations facing the company ahead of earnings. The discussion then turns to Netflix earnings. We go over the two themes from Netflix’s report. The email concludes with my notes from Netflix’s earnings Q&A which covered a number of business and strategy topics.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The second part of my Apple earnings preview (financial estimates for iPhone, Services, Apple Watch & AirPods, Beats / Home / Accessories, Mac, and iPad) is available to members here. The final part of my Apple 1Q20 earnings preview going over 2Q20 guidance and my updated earnings model is available to members here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 4Q19 Earnings Review (Consolidated)
My Apple 4Q19 earnings review was discussed in two daily updates. This post includes the full review.
The earnings review contains the following sections:
Major Takeaways and Themes
The Big Picture
Apple 4Q19: By the Numbers
A Wearables Story
iPad Strength
Non-iPhone Business Momentum
iPhone Divergence
A Lack of China Discussion
Full Notes and Granular Takeaways
25 different topics covered
Above Avalon membership is required to read my 4,800-word Apple 4Q19 earnings review. Members can read the review here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 4Q19 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 4Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.
The 2,400-word email includes the following sections:
The Big Picture
Apple 4Q19: By the Numbers
A Wearables Story
iPad Strength
Non-iPhone Business Momentum
iPhone Divergence
A Lack of China Discussion
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
(The second half of my earnings review focused on the granular takeaways and my full notes from Apple’s earnings report and conference call is available here.)
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 4Q19 Earnings Preview (Part 2 – Products and Services Estimates)
Today's email includes the second part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview. We go over my financial estimates for the iPhone business (revenue, unit sales, and average selling price) and Apple’s non-iPhone business (Services, iPad, Mac, Wearables / Home / Accessories). The discussion includes my Apple Watch and AirPods sales estimates. We also go over the methodology behind all of my estimates.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
The first part of the preview (thoughts on Wall Street expectations and the overall environment heading into next week's earnings) is available to members here. The final part of my Apple 4Q19 earnings preview going over 1Q20 guidance and my updated earnings model will be sent to members on Thursday (Oct 24th).
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple 3Q19 Earnings Review (Major Takeaways)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the first half of my Apple 3Q19 earnings review. We discuss the major themes and takeaways from Apple's earnings report and conference call.
The email includes the following sections:
3Q19: By the Numbers
We Are in the Apple Wearables Era
A China Rebound
The Apple Services Narrative Is Wrong
iPhone Stabilization
Share Buyback Bonanza
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
(The second half of my earnings review focused on the details granular takeaways is available here.)
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to all email questions and inquiries.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 5 - Thoughts on AAPL), Deep Dive into 2Q16 Smartwatch Market, Apple Selling Exclusive Watch Bands for Olympics
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 5 - Thoughts on AAPL)
- Deep Dive into 2Q16 Smartwatch Market
- Apple Selling Exclusive Watch Bands for Olympics
Today's email includes the fifth and final installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. The previous four parts of the 3Q16 earnings preview are:
We begin today's email by discussing a few big picture themes concerning AAPL shares ahead of Apple's earnings release tomorrow. The email then turns to the latest IDC shipment numbers for the smartwatch industry. We go over a few of my observations on the latest trends. We conclude with a discussion of Apple's Watch band strategy by looking at news of Apple selling limited edition Watch bands in Brazil for the Olympics.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - 4Q Guidance), Tesla's New Master Plan, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - 4Q Guidance)
- Tesla's New Master Plan
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with the fourth installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. Part 1 - Methodology was published in Monday's daily update, Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch was published in Tuesday's update, and Part 3 - iPhone was published in yesterday's update. In today's update, we discuss my perspective on Apple's upcoming 4Q guidance, including the contributing factors that will play a key role in analyzing management's guidance. The email then turns to Elon Musk's new master plan for Tesla. I take a deep dive through the plan, offering a number of observations on Musk's vision for Tesla. We conclude with Thursday Q&A in which I answer questions from Above Avalon members. This week's questions:
- What will happen if there aren't new Macs announced this fall?
- What do you make of the rumor that Apple will buy Formula 1?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone), Swatch Issues Profit Warning, 2Q16 Microsoft Surface Shipments
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPhone)
- Swatch Issues Profit Warning
- 2Q16 Microsoft Surface Shipments
We begin today's email with the third installment of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. (Part 1 - Methodology was published in Monday's daily update, and Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch was published in yesterday's update). Along with going over my iPhone sales estimate, we discuss my broader views on the iPhone business heading into next week's earnings report. The email then turns to Swatch, the largest watchmaker in the world, issuing a profit warning on weak sales. We go over why so much attention is being given to Swatch and why some of the questionable actions being taken by the company suggest intense turmoil in the Swiss watch industry. The discussion then turns to new Microsoft Surface revenue data included in Microsoft's 2Q16 earnings release yesterday. We back into Surface shipment data and then compare it to my iPad and Mac 3Q estimates.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch), Netflix Has a Big Problem, SoftBank to Buy ARM Holdings
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - Services, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch)
- Netflix Has a Big Problem
- SoftBank to Buy ARM Holdings
We kick off today's email with the second part of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my revenue and unit sales estimates for Services, Mac, iPad, and Apple Watch. The email then turns to Netflix as the company reported earnings yesterday. Upon closer examination, I see the company facing a big problem in video streaming. There are also implications on how Apple may view video streaming. We conclude with my thoughts on SoftBank announcing its intention to buy ARM Holdings and what it may mean for Apple.
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AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology), Eddy Cue's Odd Interview About TV, Line's IPO
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AAPL 3Q16 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Methodology)
- Eddy Cue's Odd Interview About TV
- Line's IPO
We begin today's email with the first part of my AAPL 3Q16 earnings preview. We discuss my view on earnings previews and how my approach is different than Wall Street's. Today's update helps set the stage for the rest of this week's daily updates in which we cover my expectations headed into Apple's earnings release next Tuesday. The email then turns to Eddy Cue's interview with The Hollywood Reporter concerning TV. A few of his comments stood out to me. We conclude with a few brief observations on Line's IPO, including messaging platform valuation. We also discuss why the narrative that some of these messaging platforms are potential threats to Apple and iOS has been exaggerated.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.