Neil Cybart 12/19/19 Neil Cybart 12/19/19

Is Apple Being Valued Like a Services Company?, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Apple Joins Smart Home Working Group

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Is Apple Being Valued Like a Services Company?
Updated Apple Earnings Model
Apple Joins Smart Home Working Group

We begin today’s email with a closer look at whether or not Apple is being valued like a services company. The discussion goes over various valuation methodologies.

We then turn to my Apple financial estimates. The email includes access to my updated Apple earnings model which now include FY2021 estimates. Above Avalon members have exclusive access to my working Apple earnings model at no additional cost. The model is available as an Excel file that also works with Numbers.

The discussion concludes with my thoughts on Apple forming a smart home working group with Amazon, Google, and the Zigbee Alliance to develop a connectivity standard for smart home devices.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/18/19 Neil Cybart 12/18/19

Walt Mossberg on Apple's Decade, Netflix Discloses More Paid Subscriber Data, Apple’s 6% Daily Cash Holiday Offer

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Walt Mossberg on Apple's Decade
Netflix Discloses More Paid Subscriber Data
Apple’s 6% Daily Cash Holiday Offer

We kick off the update with my thoughts on Walt Mossberg’s article regarding Apple in the 2010s. There are serious flaws found with Mossberg’s piece. The email then goes over the most interesting takeaways from Netflix’s new data related to paid subscribers. We conclude with why I think Apple’s 6% Daily Cash holiday promotion for Apple Card is clever.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/17/19 Neil Cybart 12/17/19

NYT Goes After Tech’s Decade, Tech Products of the Decade, Apple’s Decade of Growing Influence

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

NYT Goes After Tech’s Decade
Tech Products of the Decade
Apple’s Decade of Growing Influence

The update begins with my thoughts on The New York Time’s version of a “decade in review” for the tech industry. I have major concerns with the way the NYT continues to treat the tech industry. The discussion then turns to the only two realistic choices for tech products of the decade. We conclude with a closer look at how an Apple-specific theme from the 2010s would center on the company’s growing influence.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/16/19 Neil Cybart 12/16/19

U.S. and China Reach Trade Deal, Apple Buys More Land in North Carolina, YouTubers "Review" Mac Pro

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

U.S. and China Reach Trade Deal
Apple Buys More Land in North Carolina
YouTubers "Review" Mac Pro

We kick off today’s email with news of the U.S. and China reaching a “first-stage” trade deal. The discussion goes over my thoughts on the topic and what it means for Apple. We then turn to an interesting story out of North Carolina about Apple secretly buying land and contemplating expansion plans in the state. The email concludes with Apple’s strategy to rely on YouTubers to official unveil the Mac Pro in the wild.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/12/19 Neil Cybart 12/12/19

More on “Apple Tax” and Apple’s Pricing Strategy, HomePod Sales and 4Q19 Installed Base, Estimating Total Number of Apple Devices and Users

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

More on “Apple Tax” and Apple’s Pricing Strategy
HomePod Sales and 4Q19 Installed Base
Estimating Total Number of Apple Devices and Users

We kick off today’s email with additional comments on the newest Above Avalon article, “The ‘Apple Tax’ Died Years Ago.” In particular, we discuss two observations that occurred to me somewhat early on in the research process. The discussion then turns to my estimate for the size of the HomePod installed base (the number of HomePods in the wild) as of the end of September 2019. We also go over the methodology used to derive the estimate. The email concludes with the total number of Apple devices currently in use broken out by product category and the total number of users in the Apple ecosystem.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

SUBSCRIBE $200/YEAR

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/11/19 Neil Cybart 12/11/19

4Q19 Apple Wearables Sales, 4Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base, 4Q19 AirPods Installed Base

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

4Q19 Apple Wearables Sales
4Q19 Apple Watch Installed Base
4Q19 AirPods Installed Base

We begin the update with my estimate for the number of wearable devices Apple shipped in 4Q19. The discussion also goes over why IDC’s recent report on wearables shipments looks off the mark. The email then turns to my estimate for the size of the Apple Watch installed base (the number of Apple Watches in the wild) as of the end of September 2019. We conclude with my estimate for the size of the AirPods installed base (the number of AirPods in the wild) as of the end of September 2019. The update includes the methodology and various data points used to derive my estimates.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/10/19 Neil Cybart 12/10/19

Estimating Total Number of iPads and Macs in Use, iPad Upgrade Trends, Apple Grabs First Golden Globe Nominations

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Estimating Total Number of iPads and Macs in Use
iPad Upgrade Trends
Apple Grabs First Golden Globe Nominations

We kick off today’s email with my estimates for the size of the iPad and Mac installed bases (the number of iPads and Macs in the wild) as of the end of September 2019. The discussion includes the methodology and various data points used to derive my estimates. We then look specifically at the latest iPad upgrade trends, including my theory as to why sales to iPad upgraders continue to come in on the light side. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple grabbing three Golden Globe nominations and what it means for the company’s original video content efforts.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/9/19 Neil Cybart 12/9/19

Estimating Total Number of iPhone Users, iPhone Upgrade Trends, Thinking About iPhone Sales in 2020 and 2021

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Estimating Total Number of iPhone Users
iPhone Upgrade Trends
Thinking About iPhone Sales in 2020 and 2021

We kick off today’s email with my estimate for the size of the iPhone installed base (the number of iPhone users in the wild) as of the end of September 2019. The discussion includes the methodology and various data points used to derive my estimate. We then look specifically at the latest iPhone upgrading trends, including my estimate for the percentage of iPhone unit sales that now go to upgraders. The email concludes with my thoughts on what iPhone sales may look like over the next 12 to 24 months. My perspective is based on the work found in my iPhone installed base model.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/5/19 Neil Cybart 12/5/19

Disney’s Underappreciated Asset, Rising Video Content Cost Inflation, The Roku Question

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Disney’s Underappreciated Asset
Rising Video Content Cost Inflation
The Roku Question

Today’s update will have a video streaming theme. We never covered Disney and Roku earnings from November. Instead of going over the financial numbers (there weren't too many surprises), we will tackle the most interesting takeaways from the two earnings conference calls. This will provide us additional insight and perspective into the current video streaming landscape. We go over the Disney asset that is not being fully recognized by Silicon Valley and Wall Street. The discussion then turns to implications arising from rising video content cost inflation. We conclude by going over what I think is the main question currently facing Roku when it comes to the company’s sustainability.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/4/19 Neil Cybart 12/4/19

Larry Page and Sergey Brin Step Down From Alphabet, Alphabet No Longer Makes Sense, Apple Announces Inaugural Apple Music Awards

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Larry Page and Sergey Brin Step Down From Alphabet
Alphabet No Longer Makes Sense
Apple Announces Inaugural Apple Music Awards

We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on Larry Page and Sergey Brin stepping down from their Alphabet leadership positions. The discussion goes over why I think the case for the current Alphabet structure to remain in place falls apart with Page and Brin out of the picture. We conclude with a look at why I think Apple is making the right move launching Apple Music Awards.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/3/19 Neil Cybart 12/3/19

Fitbit’s Fascinating Merger Proxy, Facebook Almost Bought Fitbit, Wrist Wearables Panic

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Fitbit’s Fascinating Merger Proxy
Facebook Almost Bought Fitbit
Wrist Wearables Panic

We kick off today’s email with a deep dive into Fitbit’s proxy statement related to its pending Google acquisition. This was one of the more fascinating proxies that I came across in recent memory. The discussion then turns to how Facebook came very close to acquiring Fitbit. We conclude with my thoughts on the idea that companies are starting to realize the strategic value found with wrist wearables. There may be a sense of anxiousness or even panic beginning to set in when looking at firms in Silicon Valley and Washington State (Microsoft and Amazon).

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.

Neil Cybart 12/2/19 Neil Cybart 12/2/19

Apple Doubles AirPods Pro Production, AirPods Interest Hits New Record, Apple Alters Maps in Russia

Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:

Apple Doubles AirPods Pro Production
AirPods Interest Hits New Record
Apple Alters Maps in Russia

We kick off today’s email with the latest production chatter from the AirPods supply chain. The discussion goes over why I have more confidence in the Nikkei’s newest report on the topic. We also go over the latest Google Trends search interest data for AirPods and the difference between AirPods Pro versus AirPods search interest. The email concludes with my thoughts on the controversy involving Apple altering Apple Maps in Russia to recognize the 2014 annexation of Crimea.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.

Above Avalon Membership

Subscribe $20/month

Subscribe $200/year

Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.

Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.

If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members.
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 850 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon articles via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.