iPhone Pessimism Has Hit an Inflection Point, Wall Street’s Problematic Stance on Apple Services, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
iPhone Pessimism Has Hit an Inflection Point
Wall Street’s Problematic Stance on Apple Services
Thursday Q&A
We jump into today’s update with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “iPhone Hysteria.” In particular, we take a closer look at the state of the iPhone business heading into 2019. The discussion then turns to two articles that jumped out at me regarding Apple Services. There are issues found with Wall Street becoming increasingly aggressive in pushing the Apple Services narrative. We also go over why I don’t think an “Apple Prime” monthly subscription that includes access to Apple services and hardware makes sense. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Is it possible that Apple’s iPhone battery replacement program is having a tangible, negative impact on the iPhone upgrade rate?
Is Apple GiveBack a holiday promotion or a permanent fixture?
Will Apple’s GiveBack lead to an influx of people buying iPhones directly from Apple? Is it possible that iPhone ASP can be negatively impacted as a result?
Given Apple's inability to gain traction in India over the last few years, what are your thoughts on Apple leaving the India market entirely. Should Apple implement a strategy along the lines of updating the iPhone 8 series phones with the A12 SoC / improved camera (similar to iPhone XR) and offering it at a starting price of $499 for iPhone 8 and $599 for iPhone 8 Plus?
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iPhone Trouble in India, The NYT’s Facebook Bombshell, Apple Pushing Apple Music on Echo
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
iPhone Trouble in India
The NYT’s Facebook Bombshell
Apple Pushing Apple Music on Echo
We begin today’s email with a closer look at the WSJ’s article about Apple’s troubles in India. In particular, we go over the straight-forward problem facing Apple in India. The discussion then turns to news that Facebook has been giving away user data for free in order to advance its own interests. We go over my thoughts on ad-based business models built on data collection. The email concludes with Apple pushing its new Apple Music integration with Amazon Echo and Alexa. We discuss the logic behind Apple sending Apple Music notifications about Echo and rolling out the red carpet for Alexa in the App Store.
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Apple Pushes Back Against Qualcomm in China, Apple Hires Industrial Designer from Tesla, Update to App Store Trends
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Pushes Back Against Qualcomm in China
Apple Hires Industrial Designer from Tesla
Update to App Store Trends
We kick off today’s email with an update on the Apple vs. Qualcomm battle in China. The discussion then turns to Apple hiring Andrew Kim from Tesla. Kim was a senior designer at Tesla focused most recently on the Model 3 interior. There’s an interesting story here, including some discoveries I came across regarding Apple’s industrial design group looking for new talent. The email concludes with a look at App Store trends on Black Friday and the top iOS apps according to revenue. We go over the numbers and then discuss a main takeaway from the data.
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Apple’s U.S. Manufacturing Mess, Thoughts on Apple Bringing Manufacturing Back to the U.S., Apple Signs Peanuts
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple’s U.S. Manufacturing Mess
Thoughts on Apple Bringing Manufacturing Back to the U.S.
Apple Signs Peanuts
We kick off today’s email with Apple and manufacturing. The NYT recently published an article about Apple’s problematic past with building Macs in the U.S. We use the article as an opportunity to have a broader discussion about Apple’s current outsourcing strategy, which includes relying on contract manufacturers to assemble its products. We go over the three primary items Apple would need to address in order to have any chance of bringing manufacturing back to the U.S. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple signing a deal to produce new Peanuts video content.
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Apple Unveils U.S. Expansion Plans, Apple Expands Medical Staff, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Unveils U.S. Expansion Plans
Apple Expands Medical Staff
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on Apple’s U.S. expansion plans. We go over the differences between Apple’s and Amazon’s approach to finding and securing a new campus. The discussion also includes how Apple’s new campus and larger offices around the U.S. fit in with Apple Park and the broader Apple apparatus. The email then turns to news of Apple having dozens of medical professionals on staff. We go over why health intrigues Apple. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Is Apple promoting trade-ins for iPhone XR, XS, and XS Max as a tactical move to get customers off Qualcomm chips as fast as possible?
Is there a connection between Apple deciding not to disclose iPhone unit sales and announcements regarding reduced orders for iPhone components? Did Apple make the disclosure change knowing AAPL shares would decline, making the stock buyback cheaper? Does this open Apple up for potential legal issues?
Why does each individual supplier cut result in additional pressure on Apple shares? Aren’t all the reported cuts part of the same decline in sales/orders?
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Key Apple Production Partners Report OK Results, Scooter Companies Hit Speed Bumps, Ad-Based Publishing Is Imploding
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Key Apple Production Partners Report OK Results
Scooter Companies Hit Speed Bumps
Ad-Based Publishing Is Imploding
We kick off today’s email with a closer look at Foxconn’s and TSMC’s November results. In particular, we go over what the results say, and don’t say, about iPhone demand. The discussion then turns to scooter companies hitting an air pocket. We also go over the major developments unfolding in the transportation space. The email concludes with Verizon’s breathtaking filing regarding Oath, its digital content division. We go over why Verizon’s disaster with digital content ends up being a symptom of a much larger problem impacting the ad-based publishing industry.
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An Apple Watch Aha Moment, Apple Unveils Updated Beddit Sleep Monitor, Stress Test Scenarios for Apple in China
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
An Apple Watch Aha Moment
Apple Unveils Updated Beddit Sleep Monitor
Stress Test Scenarios for Apple in China
We begin today’s update with a closer look at what I thought was an aha moment for Apple Watch. The discussion then turns to Apple unveiling an updated Beddit sleep monitor. We go over why Beddit was such an unusual acquisition for Apple and how sleep monitoring fits within Apple’s broader strategy. The email concludes with financial stress test scenarios that assume Apple’s fortunes in China sour. The exercise is designed to discuss what could happen to Apple financials in the event of developments such as iPhone sales being banned in China and Apple having to move its supply and manufacturing apparatus out of China.
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Deep Dive into Apple’s iPhone Trade-In Promotion, Diagnosing an iPhone Problem, Apple Acquires Platoon for Apple Music
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Deep Dive into Apple’s iPhone Trade-In Promotion
Diagnosing an iPhone Problem
Apple Acquires Platoon for Apple Music
We begin today’s update with a deep dive into Apple’s iPhone trade-in promotion. We go over Apple GiveBack’s background, then turn to financial implications found with the program, including how Apple is accounting for the program costs and promotions. The discussion also goes over my takeaways from analyzing Apple’s various trade-in promotions. The data caught me by surprise. We then look at what may be unfolding in the iPhone business to lead to these various promotions. The email concludes with why Apple bought Platoon and how the acquisition fits with Apple’s broader Apple Music strategy.
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Additional Thoughts on Apple Music on Echo, Apple Is Emphasizing Hardware, The Wireless Headphone Wars
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Additional Thoughts on Apple Music on Echo
Apple Is Emphasizing Hardware
The Wireless Headphone Wars
We begin today’s update with additional thoughts on Apple’s decision to make Apple Music available on Amazon Echo speakers. In particular, we cover divergent opinions when it comes to Apple services vs. hardware. The email then turns to why I think moves like bringing Apple Music to Echo actually are a sign of Apple emphasizing hardware. The discussion concludes with why I think wireless headphones have the best shot of being the battle to watch in tech land next year.
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Apple Pushing Additional iPhone Promos, Qualcomm Goes on PR Offense Against Apple, Inside the Battle for Streaming Video Content
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Pushing Additional iPhone Promos
Qualcomm Goes on PR Offense Against Apple
Inside the Battle for Streaming Video Content
We begin today’s update with my thoughts on Apple unveiling new sales tactics and promos for iPhone. We discuss how the moves aren’t necessarily a sign of weak iPhone demand. The email then turns to some questionable comments from Qualcomm and why I think it’s part of a PR battle against Apple. We conclude with the content wars and the two paths forward for a video streaming company.
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A Cheaper Apple Stock Buyback, Apple Supplier Cirrus Logic Issues Revenue Warning, Interest in AirPods Exploding Higher
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
A Cheaper Apple Stock Buyback
Apple Supplier Cirrus Logic Issues Revenue Warning
Interest in AirPods Exploding Higher
We jump into today’s update with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Leveraging Apple's Share Buyback.” In particular, we take a deeper look at the numbers and Apple’s overall philosophy when it comes to buyback. The discussion then turns to Cirrus Logic, an Apple supplier, issuing a revenue warning on smartphone weakness. We go over what the news says, and doesn’t say, about iPhone demand. The email concludes with AirPods and how customer interest in the product is exploding higher. We go over the data, including what I think is behind the surge in interest versus last year. We also discuss my AirPods sales estimates.
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Apple Bringing Apple Music to Echo Speakers, Apple’s Services Goals, A More Confident Apple Music Strategy
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Bringing Apple Music to Echo Speakers
Apple’s Services Goals
A More Confident Apple Music Strategy
Today’s email is a deep dive into Apple’s decision to make Apple Music available on Amazon Echo speakers. We go over my thoughts on the news, and what it says and doesn’t say about HomePod sales, Apple Music, and Apple’s services strategy.
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