Apple Comments on iPhone XR Sales, A Sign of Apple Product Sales Disclosure to Come?, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Comments on iPhone XR Sales
A Sign of Apple Product Sales Disclosure to Come?
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with a closer look at Apple VP Greg Joswiak’s comments about iPhone XR sales. We go over both what Joz said, and didn’t say, about iPhone XR demand. In addition, we look at what his comments suggest about the overall iPhone sales mix heading into 2019. The discussion then turns to the topic of how Apple may address false narratives regarding product demand mix without providing unit sales data. We conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Berkshire vs. Apple. Why has Berkshire Hathaway’s stock remained near its all-time high while its largest equity investment, Apple, has fallen by more than 20%?
iPhone 8 vs. iPhone XR. What is the implication for Apple’s iPhone strategy given an uptick in iPhone 8 sales after the XR launch? In a mature market with late adopters, does this limit Apple’s ability to push the market forward and take risks, such as with the Face ID/all-screen design?
Screen Sizes. The iPhone X performed very well at $999, although the XR doesn't appear to be selling any better at $749. Could Apple have been too aggressive with larger screens at the mid-priced segment? Is it possible that the mid-tier prefers more size options?
Buyback Pace. How much leeway does management have quarter to quarter for share buyback? Given the decline in Apple's share price, could we see an uptick in the buyback pace?
Buyback’s Impact on EPS. How would you think about Apple's share buyback and the lower share price when it comes to 1Q19 EPS expectations? How could a lower share price and/or larger buyback affect EPS?
Marketing. Why has there been such little marketing for some of Apple's new products?
iPhone Sales. What would a worst case scenario look like for iPhone sales?
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Inside the Apple News Machine, YouTube Backs Away from Paid Subscriptions, Apple Partners with A24 for Movies
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Inside the Apple News Machine
YouTube Backs Away from Paid Subscriptions
Apple Partners with A24 for Movies
We kick off today’s email by going over the NYT’s recent Apple News profile. The discussion includes why I think Apple News is a symbol of how Apple thinks differently about services. We then turn to the video space and YouTube backing away from paid subscriptions. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple partnering with indie studio A24 to produce movies.
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Mosaic Theory for iPhone Order Cuts, Initial Thoughts on Apple’s iPhone Strategy in 2019, Apple’s Answer to Overserving iPhone Users
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Mosaic Theory for iPhone Order Cuts
Initial Thoughts on Apple’s iPhone Strategy in 2019
Apple’s Answer to Overserving iPhone Users
We begin today’s update by discussing my strategy for using the mosaic theory to come up with a good handle on the current iPhone demand environment. The email then turns to my initial thoughts on Apple’s iPhone strategy in 2019. We go over my stance on various iPhone models and pricing options. The discussion concludes with a closer look at how Apple has been planning for the era when iPhone users become content with less.
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Apple Cuts iPhone XR Pricing in Japan, Apple Resumes iPhone X Production, Canary in an iPhone Coal Mine
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Cuts iPhone XR Pricing in Japan
Apple Resumes iPhone X Production
Canary in an iPhone Coal Mine
The iPhone news cycle continues to come in strong. Today’s email will be dedicated to discussing the latest developments.
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Deep Dive into Apple Product Sales Estimates, Apple as a Toolmaker, Valuing a Toolmaker
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Deep Dive into Apple Product Sales Estimates
Apple as a Toolmaker
Valuing a Toolmaker
In today’s update, we continue the discussion about my new Apple financial estimates for FY2019 and FY2020. In particular, we look at my Apple product sales estimates and how Apple is positioned financially from a product viewpoint in 2019 and 2020. Above Avalon members have access to my working Apple earnings model. The discussion then turns to the idea of Apple as a toolmaker and what it means in terms of valuing the company.
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New Apple Financial Estimates, Thoughts on AAPL Valuation, Legacy Watchmakers Still Dragging Feet
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
New Apple Financial Estimates
Thoughts on AAPL Valuation
Legacy Watchmakers Still Dragging Feet
In today’s update, we will go over my revised Apple financial estimates for FY2019. I am also introducing my FY2020 estimates. Above Avalon members have access to my working Apple earnings model. The discussion then turns to AAPL valuation. Given the past few weeks of market volatility, there have been some noteworthy updates on the valuation front. We conclude with a look at the latest efforts from legacy watchmakers to compete with Apple Watch.
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WSJ Supports iPhone Order Cut Explanation, Additional Thoughts on iPhone Order Cuts, Sonos Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
WSJ Supports iPhone Order Cut Explanation
Additional Thoughts on iPhone Order Cuts
Sonos Earnings
In today’s update, we continue our discussion regarding possible iPhone order cuts. In particular, we go over whether the WSJ’s iPhone order cut claims are plausible. We also discuss a few other big picture thoughts regarding iPhone demand. The email concludes with a look at Sonos earnings.
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Apple Unit Sales Became a Crutch, Apple Unwraps Custom Silicon Strategy, Netflix’s Tug-of-War
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Unit Sales Became a Crutch
Apple Unwraps Custom Silicon Strategy
Netflix’s Tug-of-War
We jump into today’s update with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Apple Outgrew Unit Sales.” In particular, we go over why I think Wall Street fell in love with unit sales data. The discussion then turns to Apple management shining light on its custom silicon strategy and its broader place within Apple’s product development process. We conclude with my thoughts on a recent Netflix profile by the WSJ. There are signs of Netflix’s culture changing. We look at the change and what it may mean for the broader video space.
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Disney's Video Strategy Update, An iPhone Slump?, A Possible iPhone Explanation
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Disney's Video Strategy Update
An iPhone Slump?
A Possible iPhone Explanation
We jump into today’s update with Disney earnings and then conclude with the market’s ongoing concerns with iPhone demand. Disney CEO Bob Iger spent much of Disney’s earnings call discussing the company’s video strategy. We go over the main takeaways and my thoughts on Disney’s positioning in the space. The discussion then turns to iPhone and we go over some possible scenarios that may explain what is behind these iPhone supply chain order cuts.
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Apple's 3D Laser Supplier Announces Order Cut, The Finisar Wild Card, Early Read on iPhone XR Sales
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple's 3D Laser Supplier Announces Order Cut
The Finisar Wild Card
Early Read on iPhone XR Sales
Today’s email will be focused on the latest developments regarding iPhone component order cuts and questions surrounding iPhone demand. We begin with Lumentum, an Apple supplier, slashing guidance due to receiving a very large order cut. The discussion then turns to why I think Finisar, another Apple supplier, should be part of the debate regarding Lumentum. The email concludes with a look at the latest iPhone adoption trends.
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Spotify 3Q18 Earnings, Estimating 3Q18 Microsoft Surface Unit Sales, Previewing Black Friday Promotions
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Spotify 3Q18 Earnings
Estimating 3Q18 Microsoft Surface Unit Sales
Previewing Black Friday Promotions
The email begins with Spotify earnings. We then turn to Microsoft earnings to estimate Surface unit sales during 3Q18. The discussion concludes with my thoughts on this year’s Black Friday sales for Apple and its peers. We go over the takeaways from the largest retailers’ Black Friday promotions.
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Fitbit Earnings, Fossil / Garmin Wearable Results, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Fitbit Earnings
Fossil / Garmin Wearable Results
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email in wrist wearables land and conclude with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
How concerned should Apple be about disruption from foldable screen technology?
Why was the 12-inch MacBook not discontinued? Why is the MacBook Pro without Touch Bar still in the lineup?
Will iPad Pro eventually take the place of MacBook Pro in Apple’s lineup?
Apple didn’t mention Intel when talking about the new Mac products last week. Is there anything important to read into that?
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Jony Ive on the New iPad Pro, The iPad Pro Reviews, Laptop Replacements vs. Alternatives
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Jony Ive on the New iPad Pro
The iPad Pro Reviews
Laptop Replacements vs. Alternatives
The email begins with going over three interesting things Jony had to say about the iPad Pro’s design. We then turn to iPad Pro reviews, covering the major themes found in the various reviews. This brings us to the difference between a product being a laptop replacement versus a laptop alternative. The discussion adds clarity to what continues to be a polarizing iPad vs. laptop debate in tech circles.
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Apple 2018 10-K Takeaways
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes my key takeaways from Apple's annual 10-K filing for 2018. We cover 13 financial topics.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Details)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Review (Part 2 - Details)
Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 4Q18 earnings review. Last Friday’s email was focused on the major themes from earnings (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 23 different topics.
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