Apple's NYC Event Review (Major Themes)
Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over some of the major themes from yesterday’s event in NYC.
The email includes the following sections:
Attending the Event / The Audience / The Venue
MacBook Air and Mac mini
iPad Pro
iPad vs. Mac
No Headphones
The second half of the review (full notes) is available here.
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Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Product Event in NYC
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Product Event in NYC
The email is dedicated to going over my thoughts and expectations ahead of Apple's big product event in NYC tomorrow. The discussion revolves around Apple’s business and pricing strategies for a number of Apple product categories.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 1Q19 Guidance, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Final Thoughts), Tesla’s Strong Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - 1Q19 Guidance, Updated Apple Earnings Model, Final Thoughts)
Tesla’s Strong Earnings
Today's email concludes my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We look at my 1Q19 revenue guidance projections and updated Apple earnings model. (Access to my Apple earnings model is a benefit associated with Above Avalon membership.) We then go over my final thoughts heading into earnings next week.
The first two parts of my 4Q18 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates).
The email concludes with a deep dive into Tesla’s 3Q18 earnings.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Services Estimates)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Services Estimates)
Today's email continues my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates.
The other parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and and here (1Q19 guidance, updated Apple earnings model, final thoughts).
My full Apple 4Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage), A New Tailwind for iPhone ASP, Jony Ive Is Hinting at Something Big
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 4Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)
A New Tailwind for iPhone ASP
Jony Ive Is Hinting at Something Big
Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 4Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings.
The second and third parts of my 4Q18 earnings preview are available: here (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates) and here (1Q19 guidance, updated Apple earnings model, final thoughts).
The email then turns to my recent weekly article, "The Gray Market's Impact on iPhone Pricing." In particular, we go over my revised thinking regarding iPhone ASP trends. The discussion concludes with my thoughts on Jony Ive’s recent interview with FT and how he continues to hint at something big unfolding at Apple.
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Tim Cook Goes After Bloomberg, Apple Leases Huge Manufacturing Building near Apple Park
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Tim Cook Goes After Bloomberg
Apple Leases Huge Manufacturing Building near Apple Park
The email kicks off with Tim Cook calling for Bloomberg to retract its Chinese hardware hacking story. We go over how this latest development shines light on how Cook is leading Apple. The discussion then turns to Apple’s latest real estate move. We go over my theory as to why Apple purchased 314,000 square feet of industrial manufacturing space near Apple Park.
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Early Read on iPhone XS and XS Max Sales, App Store FY4Q18 Trends, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Early Read on iPhone XS and XS Max Sales
App Store FY4Q18 Trends
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on early iPhone XS and XS Max sales. The discussion then turns to the most recent App Store revenue trends. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Do you think there will be longer lines at Apple stores for iPhone XR vs. iPhone XS / XS Max?
Will Apple work out deals to position third-party content alongside its original video content?
What kind of "family friendly" content do you think Apple will pursue for their own video / TV productions? Is there a certain content niche here for Apple?
How representative are Shazam's AR efforts for future Apple AR use cases?
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Netflix 3Q18 Earnings, Crunching iOS 12 Adoption Numbers, Facebook Revises Data Collection Stance with Portal
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Netflix 3Q18 Earnings
Crunching iOS 12 Adoption Numbers
Facebook Revises Data Collection Stance with Portal
The email kicks off with Netflix 3Q18 earnings. We go over the most important takeaways from the financials, shareholder letter, and earnings interview. The discussion then turns to iOS 12 and we go over my estimates for the absolute number of iOS devices running iOS 12 and the number of iOS devices in the wild that were introduced before 2014. The email concludes with Facebook revising its data collection stance with Portal and why the entire situation is a complete mess for the company.
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Jony Ive on Human Connection, Jony’s Power Within Apple, Phil Schiller at Adobe MAX
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Jony Ive on Human Connection
Jony’s Power Within Apple
Phil Schiller at Adobe MAX
The email kicks off with my thoughts on Jony Ive’s talk at Wired’s 25th anniversary event in San Francisco. Jony was interviewed by Anna Wintour. The discussion then turns to Jony’s future at Apple and my stance on power within Apple. The email concludes with Photoshop coming to iPad Pro and Apple SVP Phil Schiller going on stage at Adobe MAX. Schiller had some interesting comments to say about the iPad’s role within Apple’s product line.
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The Stock Market Sell-Off, Dialog Announces Apple Agreement, Apple Acquires Asaii
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
The Stock Market Sell-Off
Dialog Announces Apple Agreement
Apple Acquires Asaii
The email begins with my thoughts regarding the latest stock market sell-off. We then turn to Dialog Semiconductor and Apple announcing a multi-year agreement. We go over Apple’s motivation behind the agreement. The email concludes with a look at Asaii, Apple’s latest acquisition target. We go over the two ways Apple can use Asaii.
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The Paid Video Streaming Market Is Wide Open, Apple to Bundle Original Content in TV App, AT&T Reveals Video Bundle Plans
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
The Paid Video Streaming Market Is Wide Open
Apple to Bundle Original Content in TV App
AT&T Reveals Video Bundle Plans
Given the news flow, today’s daily update is going to be Thursday Media Mania. We kick things off with Netflix, then turn to Apple Video, and conclude with AT&T / HBO.
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Facebook Unveils Portal, Google Unveils Home Hub, Google Hid Data Bug
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Facebook Unveils Portal
Google Unveils Home Hub
Google Hid Data Bug
We kick off today’s email by going over my thoughts on Facebook Portal and Google Home Hub. The discussion includes why I think these devices will end up being more of a head fake than anything else. The email concludes with Google hiding a Google+ data bug for fear that it would draw regulatory scrutiny.
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Thoughts on Bloomberg Businessweek’s China Hacking Story
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing my thoughts on Bloomberg Businessweek’s China hacking story.
The email (3,200 words) contains the following sections:
The Story
Apple's Response
Lots of Questions
My Theory
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Apple, Microsoft, and the Art of Simplicity, NYT Magazine Questions Apple’s Vision and Privacy Stance, Honda Invests in GM Cruise
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple, Microsoft, and the Art of Simplicity
NYT Magazine Questions Apple’s Vision and Privacy Stance
Honda Invests in GM Cruise
We kick off today’s email by discussing the difference between Apple’s iPad and Mac strategy versus Microsoft’s Surface strategy. The email then turns to Apple Watch criticism. We conclude with news from the auto industry as two rivals join forces to work on autonomous cars.
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Tim Cook Sits Down with VICE News, Microsoft’s Surface Event, Microsoft's Surface All Access
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Tim Cook Sits Down with VICE News
Microsoft’s Surface Event
Microsoft's Surface All Access
We kick off today’s email by going over Tim Cook’s interview with VICE. The discussion then turns to Microsoft’s Surface event in NYC and we go over my thoughts on Microsoft’s Surface strategy, Surface Headphones, and Surface All Access.
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