Apple 4Q17 Earnings Preview
Today's Above Avalon email is focused on previewing Apple's 4Q17 earnings. Apple will report earnings on Thursday (November 2nd). The email covers seven topics:
- Setting the Stage
- iPhone
- iPad / Mac
- Apple Watch
- Services
- 1Q18 Guidance
- Summary
We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into this week's earnings report. The email then turns to my iPhone unit sales estimate. We go over the methodology and data behind my estimate. The discussion then covers my iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, and Services estimates. We conclude with my thoughts on what Apple may report for 1Q18 guidance and all of the relevant financial line items in my model to get prepared for Apple's 4Q17 earnings release.
My Apple 4Q17 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Bloomberg's Scathing Face ID Accusation, Apple's Response to Bloomberg, Calling an iPhone X Rumor Timeout
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Bloomberg's Scathing Face ID Accusation
- Apple's Response to Bloomberg
- Calling an iPhone X Rumor Timeout
We begin today's email with a closer look at Bloomberg's accusation that Apple let suppliers reduce Face ID accuracy to improve production. We go over my thoughts on the report. The discussion then turns to Apple's response to Bloomberg's accusation, including my theory on what I think happened. The email concludes with a look at how these iPhone X rumors have gone too far. A timeout is needed in order to not lose perspective.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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A Snap Spectacles Roller Coaster, Apple Acquires PowerbyProxi
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- A Snap Spectacles Roller Coaster
- Apple Acquires PowerbyProxi
We begin today's email with my thoughts on new reports regarding weak Snap Spectacles sales. We go over how there is a Snap roller coaster in play with consensus becoming either overly optimistic or pessimistic about the company and face wearables. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Apple acquiring PowerbyProxi. We go over the company and how Apple may use the acquired assets to accelerate its design strategy.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Life Insurer to Subsidize Apple Watch, iPhone X Supply Update
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Life Insurer to Subsidize Apple Watch
- iPhone X Supply Update
We begin today's email with my thoughts on John Hancock planning to subsidize Apple Watch Series 3 to members enrolled its Vitality life insurance program. The discussion then turns to the latest report on iPhone X supply for Apple's FY1Q18. We go over the numbers and why I think consensus opinion is too negative when it comes to iPhone X supply.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple Product Distribution Mix, Delta Allegedly Switching to Apple, Verizon Seeing Wearables Momentum
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Product Distribution Mix
- Delta Allegedly Switching to Apple
- Verizon Seeing Wearables Momentum
We begin today's email with a closer look at CIRP's data regarding where U.S. consumers buy Apple products. We go over the reasoning for the dramatic difference in retail distribution found with iPhone, iPad, and Mac. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Delta reportedly switching away from Microsoft hardware to iPad Pro and iPhone for its flight crews. The email concludes with a look at Verizon management's commentary regarding wearables on its most recent earnings conference call.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Analyzing Apple's Grand Vision, Apple's Achilles' Heel, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Analyzing Apple's Grand Vision
- Apple's Achilles' Heel
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email by continuing the discussion found in this week's AboveAvalon.com article ("Apple's Grand Vision"). Specifically, we analyze Apple's strategy and vision. We go over the good and the bad, and my view on what is working and what isn't working. The email then turns to why I still think Mac is Apple's Achilles' heel. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- What do I make of the news regarding iPhone 8 and 8 Plus order cuts?
- Who is Apple's editor? Who reconciles the design, engineering, and business forces at Apple?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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iPhone X Production Ramping, GM Self-Driving Cars Coming to NYC, Magic Leap Craziness
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPhone X Production Ramping
- GM Self-Driving Cars Coming to NYC
- Magic Leap Craziness
We begin today's email with the latest on iPhone X production trends. The discussion then turns to news of GM planning to deploy a fleet of self-driving cars in NYC. We go over how autonomous car R&D is reaching a new stage. The email concludes with my thoughts on Magic Leap, a day after the company raised another $500M in funding.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Netflix 3Q17 Earnings, Netflix as an Acquirer, Apple Considered Buying Medical Clinics
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Netflix 3Q17 Earnings
- Netflix as an Acquirer
- Apple Considered Buying Medical Clinics
We kick off today's email with my thoughts and observations on Netflix's 3Q17 earnings. We go over the key points from management's conference call. The discussion then turns to Netflix M&A entering a new chapter where Netflix has become the acquirer and not target. We go over my thoughts on the possibility of a Netflix and Disney merger. The email concludes with my thoughts on CNBC's scoop that Apple considered acquiring Crossover Health, a start-up with a chain of medical clinics.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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iPhone Sales Strength in U.S. Continues, Qualcomm Seeks iPhone Ban in China
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPhone Sales Strength in U.S. Continues
- Qualcomm Seeks iPhone Ban in China
We kick off today's email by discussing the latest Kantar data regarding iPhone sales share. This monthly report is useful with Apple's 4Q17 earnings in mind. We go over my thoughts on the numbers. The discussion then turns to Qualcomm's legal maneuvering against Apple hitting a new level last week. We go over my thoughts on Qualcomm seeking to ban the sale and manufacture of iPhones in China. The discussion ends with a recap of Apple's two primary objectives to waging war against Qualcomm.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple Screen Size Trends, Mark Zuckerberg's VR Vision, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Screen Size Trends
- Mark Zuckerberg's VR Vision
- Thursday Q&A
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Apple screen size trends. We go over Apple's unit sales mix by screen size and then discuss what iPhone 8 Plus outselling iPhone 8 tells us about broader demand trends. The discussion then turns to Mark Zuckerberg's keynote speech at the Oculus developer conference. We go over my thoughts on his VR vision and how Apple thinks about VR. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- What's your take on Apple's perceived and real weaknesses in artificial intelligence?
- Is Jony Ive involved in Apple marketing?
- Do you have any estimates of the number of Apple Watch owners who are also actively pursuing fitness training in activities such as running, cycling, triathlon?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Tim Cook Discusses AR Glasses, Deep Dive into 3Q17 Mac and PC Sales, Apple Bets on "Amazing Stories" Series
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Tim Cook Discusses AR Glasses
- Deep Dive into 3Q17 Mac and PC Sales
- Apple Bets on "Amazing Stories" Series
We kick off today's email with a closer look at Tim Cook's comments about AR glasses in an interview with The Telegraph. This Apple management team is not big into misdirection. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on IDC's and Gartner's 3Q17 PC shipment data. We take a closer look at their Mac shipment projections and how they compare with my expectations. The email concludes with my thoughts on Apple selecting "Amazing Stories" for its initial slate of original video programming.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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iPad Installed Base and User Base Estimates, iPhone 8 Plus Outselling iPhone 8
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPad Installed Base and User Base Estimates
- iPhone 8 Plus Outselling iPhone 8
We kick off today's email with a deep dive into my iPad financial model. We go over my estimates for the size of the iPad installed base and user base. The discussion then turns to iPhone 8 and 8 Plus sales. The Plus model is outselling its smaller sibling. We discuss two possible explanations for this development and the broader implications regarding iPhone X demand and FY4Q17 & FY1Q18 iPhone unit sales.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Jony Ive Speaks at The New Yorker Conference, Sonos Questions
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Jony Ive Speaks at The New Yorker Conference
- Sonos Questions
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Jony Ive's talk at The New Yorker's TechFest conference in New York City. We go over nine topics from the talk that jumped out at me. The email then turns to Sonos. Given that Apple views Sonos as a HomePod competitor, there is value found in keeping an eye on the company. We look at why the company's new Sonos One speaker ends up creating more questions than answers regarding the company's long-term prospects.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Google's Hardware Event, Google Priorities, Areas of Concern for Apple
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Google's Hardware Event
- Google Priorities
- Areas of Concern for Apple
Today's email will be dedicated to discussing Google's big hardware event. We first go over my thoughts on Google's presentation and the new products, including the strongest and weakest points. We look at the presentation from Apple's perspective. We then take a closer look at Google's priorities in an AI-first world. The email concludes with my thoughts on which Google products should concern Apple from a competitive perspective.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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iPhone X Risk Is Being Underestimated, iPhone X Pricing Concerns Overblown, iOS 11 Adoption Pace
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- iPhone X Risk Is Being Underestimated
- iPhone X Pricing Concerns Overblown
- iOS 11 Adoption Pace
We kick off today's email by continuing the discussion found in this week's AboveAvalon.com article ("iPhone Courage"). Specifically, we go over how the risk found with iPhone X is being underestimated. We also go over why I don't think iPhone X pricing is as much of a concern as consensus assumes. The email concludes with my thoughts on iOS 11 adoption and what appears to be an accelerating adoption pace.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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