The Good and Bad News with Apple News, Apple News as a Paid Subscription, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
The Good and Bad News with Apple News
Apple News as a Paid Subscription
Thursday Q&A
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on the good and bad news with Apple News. We go over Slate’s big cover story regarding Apple News. The discussion then turns to how Apple can embrace paid subscriptions with Apple News. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Do I expect Apple to unveil AirPods 2.0 in October?
Why is Apple sharing production details associated with its marketing materials?
Why do you think Apple Watch partnerships haven’t extended beyond Nike and Hermès?
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iPhone XR Delay Doesn’t Look Intentional, iPhone BOM Funny Math, 1H18 Music Industry Revenue Trends
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
iPhone XR Delay Doesn’t Look Intentional
iPhone BOM Funny Math
1H18 Music Industry Revenue Trends
We kick off today’s email by going over my thoughts on Apple launching the iPhone XR a few weeks after the iPhone XS and XS Max release. The discussion then turns to iPhone gross margins and the reasons why bill of materials (BOM) analysis for iPhone is not a credible way to derive margin estimates. The email concludes with the latest music sales trends from the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA). We go over three points from the data that stood out to me.
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Amazon's Hardware Event, SiriusXM Buys Pandora, Apple Completes Shazam Acquisition
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Amazon's Hardware Event
SiriusXM Buys Pandora
Apple Completes Shazam Acquisition
We kick off today’s email by going over Amazon’s hardware event. The discussion then turns to SiriusXM buying Pandora. We go over SiriusXM’s motivation for the deal. The email concludes with a few thoughts on Apple’s Shazam acquisition.
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iPhone XS Max Initial Impressions, Apple Watch Series 4 Initial Impressions, WSJ Raises Warning Flag on Apple Video
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
iPhone XS Max Initial Impressions
Apple Watch Series 4 Initial Impressions
WSJ Raises Warning Flag on Apple Video
Today's email is going to be product focused as we discuss some of my initial impressions of the iPhone XS Max and Apple Watch Series 4. The email concludes with my thoughts on the WSJ’s concerns regarding the strict content policies Apple is relying on to create its video streaming service.
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Connecting the Apple Dots (Continued), Apple Watch and Redefining Watches, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Connecting the Apple Dots (Continued)
Apple Watch and Redefining Watches
Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Connecting the Apple Dots." In particular, we discuss the Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products and my installed base projections. We then discuss Apple Watch Series 4 and my theory that one’s existing view of watches plays a major role in how the Apple Watch is perceived. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
Who is buying the iPhone XS at $999 when you can buy an iPhone XR for $250 less?
Why is the iPhone XR larger than the iPhone XS in terms of screen size?
Do I think Apple is targeting the XR for the most sales, with extra profit margin in the XS and XS Max?
What are my predictions for marquee features / design updates for next year’s Apple Watch and iPhone?
Was there anything announced at Apple’s product event that made you want to change your Apple sales estimates?
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Odd iPhone XS Reviews, iPhone Reviews as Camera Reviews, iPhone Upgraders
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Odd iPhone XS Reviews
iPhone Reviews as Camera Reviews
iPhone Upgraders
We kick things off by going over my thoughts on iPhone XS reviews. The discussion then turns to the iPhone camera’s oversized impact on the review environment. The email concludes by revisiting my financial estimates regarding iPhone upgrading.
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Jony Ive Talks with The Washington Post, Apple Products Removed from Tariffs List, Sonos Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Jony Ive Talks with The Washington Post
Apple Products Removed from Tariffs List
Sonos Earnings
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Jony’s interview with The Washington Post’s Christina Passariello. The discussion then turns to a number of Apple products being removed from the U.S. tariffs list. We conclude with a look at Sonos earnings.
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Apple Event Review: Full Notes
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple event review. We go over my full notes from attending Apple’s iPhone and Watch event at Steve Jobs Theater. We cover 38 different topics.
This past Thursday’s email was focused on the major themes and takeaways from the event (available here).
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Apple Event Review: Major Themes and Takeaways
Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over the major themes and takeaways from Apple’s iPhone and Watch event at Steve Jobs Theater.
Major themes and takeaways:
Presentation Observations
An Apple Watch Inflection Point
iPhone Xr Intrigue
Improved iPhone Value Proposition
Thoughts on iPhone Sales Mix
The second half of my review (full notes) is available here.
My full Apple product event review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple’s M&A Philosophy, A Controlled iPhone Leak by Apple?, The Large iPhone Screen Narrative
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple’s M&A Philosophy
A Controlled iPhone Leak by Apple?
The Large iPhone Screen Narrative
We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Poaching Tesla." In particular, we discuss Apple’s M&A philosophy. The discussion then turns to what I think is a controlled leak from Apple regarding the new iPhones and the broader narrative regarding Apple’s embrace of large screen smartphones.
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Apple Discloses Products Impacted by U.S. Tariffs, Apple's Tariffs Risk, Estimating Tariff's Impact on Apple Earnings
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple Discloses Products Impacted by U.S. Tariffs
- Apple's Tariffs Risk
- Estimating Tariff's Impact on Apple Earnings
Today's email is dedicated to discussing the U.S. proposal to impose a 25% duty on a number of Apple products imported from China. The email includes my estimates for the financial impact tariffs may have on Apple.
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Dyson’s Electric Car Plans Move Forward, Fingerprint on Display as a Differentiator?, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Dyson’s Electric Car Plans Move Forward
- Fingerprint on Display as a Differentiator?
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Dyson working on electric vehicles. We then discuss the idea that fingerprint on display (FOD) technology will represent a differentiator in the smartphone industry. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Do I think demand for the large 6.5-inch iPhone is underestimated? Is there a good reason it can’t be the second-best selling iPhone?
- Could it make sense for Apple to encourage customers to subscribe to an iPhone?
- How does sudden AAPL price appreciation impact the company’s buyback? Logistically, how does Apple buy back shares?
- Do I read anything into Tim Cook selling half of his shares recently granted? What performance metrics does Apple need to hit in order for Tim Cook’s bonuses to be fully granted?
- Which vendors are candidates to work with Apple on a car?
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Samsung to Unveil Foldable Smartphone, Amazon Crosses Trillion Dollar Market Cap, The Difference Between Apple and Amazon
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Samsung to Unveil Foldable Smartphone
Amazon Crosses Trillion Dollar Market Cap
The Difference Between Apple and Amazon
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Samsung announcing it will unveil a foldable smartphone. The discussion then turns to Amazon reaching a trillion dollar market capitalization. We look at Amazon's stock price move, in addition to Apple's share price movement, in context of the broader market. The email concludes with a closer look at Forbes' exclusive interview with Jeff Bezos and the difference between Apple and Amazon.
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Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
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Previewing Apple's Product Event, 3Q18 Apple Watch Installed and User Base Estimates
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Previewing Apple's Product Event
- 3Q18 Apple Watch Installed and User Base Estimates
We kick off today's email with my expectations heading into Apple's big event next week. The discussion includes my revised pricing expectations for Apple's new flagship iPhones. We also go over my thoughts on iPhone nomenclature. The discussion then turns to Apple Watch. After going over my expectations for next week, we turn to my revised estimates for the size of the Apple Watch installed base and user base as of the end of June 2018.
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