Spotify In Talks to Buy SoundCloud, The DJI Drone/Apple Partnership, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Spotify In Talks to Buy SoundCloud
- The DJI Drone/Apple Partnership
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's update with a closer look at news that Spotify is in talks to buy SoundCloud. We go over why SoundCloud would sell to Spotify, why Spotify would buy SoundCloud, implications for the broader music streaming industry, and my overall take on the acquisition idea. The email then turns to DJI unveiling its newest drone, the Mavic Pro. A couple of things in DJI's presentation caught my attention, including the company's growing relationship with Apple. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- If iPhone demand is coming in stronger-than-expected, why did Apple decide to stop giving opening weekend iPhone sales?
- With AAPL shares up 10% this month, is AAPL still a value stock or has it become a growth stock?
- Is it possible that Apple will sell more AirPods than Apple Watches in 2017?
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Aetna to Subsidize Apple Watch, Apple Is Increasing iPhone 7 Orders
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Aetna to Subsidize Apple Watch
- Apple Is Increasing iPhone 7 Orders
We begin today's update by going over Apple's new partnership with Aetna. The third-largest health insurer in the U.S. plans to subsidize Apple Watches. After discussing the three major parts of the announcement, we go through my thoughts and observations about a health insurer subsidizing Apple Watch. The email then turns to a new report from the iPhone supply chain indicating Apple just increased part and component orders for iPhone 7. We go over the new numbers and how they would impact my iPhone unit sales estimates for FY1Q17 and FY2Q17.
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Pegatron Optimistic About Phone 7, Early Estimates for iPhone Sales Growth, Apple Music Strategy Heading Into Year Two
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Pegatron Optimistic About Phone 7
- Early Estimates for iPhone Sales Growth
- Apple Music Strategy Heading Into Year Two
We begin today's update by going over the recent upbeat comments from Pegatron, one of Apple's iPhone assemblers, regarding early iPhone 7 sales. The email then takes a deep dive into the iPhone supply chain's current expectations for iPhone 7. We then take this data to arrive at estimates for how overall iPhone sales growth is trending. We then turn to Jimmy Iovine's interview with BuzzFeed which went over Apple Music strategy heading into the service's second year.
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Snapchat Spectacles, Apple vs. Snap Inc., Spectacles Makes Google Look Bad
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Snapchat Spectacles
- Apple vs. Snap Inc.
- Spectacles Makes Google Look Bad
We begin today's update by going over Spectacles, Snapchat's first hardware product. After discussing the specifics, we go over my broader observations about the product and Snapchat's strategy. We also discuss why I suspect Snapchat changed its name to Snap Inc. and chose the Wall Street Journal to unveil Spectacles. The email then turns to how Snap's new pair of smart sunglasses will impact Apple. The Snapchat versus Apple relationship is going to change. We then discuss how I think Spectacles makes Google look bad.
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Apple In Talks to Invest in McLaren, Where Things Stand with Project Titan, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple In Talks to Invest in McLaren
- Where Things Stand with Project Titan
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's update with a deep dive into the topic of Apple looking to invest in McLaren, the British car company. After going over McLaren in detail, I share my perspective on why Apple would be interested in partnering with McLaren for Project Titan. The email then turns to an overview of where Project Titan stands today. There have been a number of developments including management changes, internal reorganization, and layoffs. We go over my five key takeaways about Project Titan, including where I think Apple's strategy is changing. We end the email with this week's installment of member Q&A where I answer the following question from an Above Avalon member: Is something amiss in Apple Retail considering the botched Apple Watch launch and iPhone Upgrade Program issues?
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The Samsung Galaxy Note 7 Recall, Measuring the Samsung Recall Fallout, GoPro Unveils Hero5 and Karma Drone
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Samsung Galaxy Note 7 Recall
- Measuring the Samsung Recall Fallout
- GoPro Unveils Hero5 and Karma Drone
We will begin today's update by going over the Samsung Galaxy Note 7 recall. This is an unprecedented recall that doesn't appear to be getting any better. After going over all of the details related to the recall, we discuss my thoughts regarding the fallout and the ways Apple may benefit. The email then turns to GoPro and the company's new product line. We discuss the new Hero5 cameras and the Karma drone, including GoPro's strategy and challenges in an environment where the competition is found with smartphones like the iPhone 7 Plus.
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Lyft's Master Plan, Estimating Opening Weekend iPhone 7 Sales
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Lyft's Master Plan
- Estimating Opening Weekend iPhone 7 Sales
We will begin today's update by going over Lyft's 10-year master plan. Lyft co-founder and president John Zimmer published a post outlining his vision for personal transport. There were some interesting points raised about how autonomous cars will become mainstream and the role of ridesharing companies going forward. However, there were other parts where I disagreed with Zimmer's stance, especially when it came to a car's interior. The email then turns to my in-depth exercise of estimating opening weekend iPhone 7 sales. We go over my methodology, the numbers, and my conclusions. We then compare iPhone 7/7 Plus launch sales to iPhone 6/6 Plus and 6s/6s Plus.
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Initial iPhone 7 Plus (Jet Black) Impressions, Initial Apple Watch Series 2 Impressions
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Initial iPhone 7 Plus (Jet Black) Impressions
- Initial Apple Watch Series 2 Impressions
Today's update is going to be product focused as we discuss some of my initial impressions of the iPhone 7 and Apple Watch Series 2. I have been using an iPhone 7 Plus (Jet Black) and stainless steel Apple Watch Series 2 for the past few days. We go over what I find to be the most compelling iPhone 7 features and the items that end up being much less noteworthy. The email then switches to Apple Watch Series 2. My overall impressions are a bit more mixed with Series 2. We discuss what I suspect is going on with my experience and how it relates to Apple's broader goal with Apple Watch.
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AirPods Are the Anti-Apple Watch, Mixed Signals for Early iPhone 7 Demand, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- AirPods Are the Anti-Apple Watch
- Mixed Signals for Early iPhone 7 Demand
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's update with a continuation of the discussion found in my "AirPods" article. Specifically, we go over my observations that Apple is using a completely different strategy in terms of unveiling and selling AirPods compared to the initial Apple Watch. The email then turns to T-Mobile and Sprint saying iPhone 7 demand is breaking records. There is evidence to suggest it is premature to draw conclusions about overall iPhone 7 demand from their announcements. We end the email with this week's installment of member Q&A where I answer the following question from an Above Avalon member: Why did Apple expand the number of iPhone launch countries when they are never able to meet demand at launch?
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New Project Titan Details, The Project Titan "Reboot," Project Titan Is a Platform
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- New Project Titan Details
- The Project Titan "Reboot"
- Project Titan Is a Platform
We begin today's update with a closer look at the Autocar article about Project Titan. There were a number of new details concerning Apple's plans for Titan that caught my attention. We also discuss my theory about Apple's fleet of "mapping" vehicles. The email then turns to The New York Times article focused on Project Titan running into issues, including a reboot. There are a few reasons why I disagree with the The New York Times' assessment of the situation. We conclude with my thoughts on how I view Apple's electric car plans and why it is incorrect to think of Project Titan as just one product.
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Apple Ends Opening Weekend iPhone Sales Disclosure, iPhone Upgrade Program Turmoil, A Black Eye for "Apple as a Service"
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Ends Opening Weekend iPhone Sales Disclosure
- iPhone Upgrade Program Turmoil
- A Black Eye for "Apple as a Service"
We kick off today's update with a closer look at Apple's announcement that it will no longer disclose opening weekend iPhone sales. We take a deep dive into this long-standing tradition including what opening weekend iPhone sales reflected and why they were actually useful for Apple investors. I also share the reasoning behind Apple's move to end the disclosure practice. The update then shifts to the iPhone Upgrade Program and what is turning into a big problem for Apple. The company was hit with a class action lawsuit yesterday regarding the iPhone Upgrade Program. I discuss my experience with the Upgrade Program, the problems seen with preordering the iPhone 7 Plus, and also the changes that are needed. We conclude with why the iPhone Upgrade Program is giving the "Apple as a Service" theory a big black eye.
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The Apple Keynote: Detailed Thoughts and Observations
Today's story:
- The Apple Keynote: Detailed Thoughts and Observations
While Thursday's daily update was focused on the major themes from Apple's keynote, today's update includes more granular thoughts and observations from the presentation.
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The Apple Keynote: Major Themes
Today's daily update is focused on reviewing the Apple keynote. Along with a big picture overview and observations from attending the event, the email covers five major themes from Apple's presentation:
- Apple Buzz
- The Apple Watch Balancing Act
- The New Normal for iPhone
- AirPods: Apple's Second Wearable Device
- Apple's Unusual Strategy with Beats
Monday's daily update will include additional thoughts and observations on Apple's WWDC keynote.
The full daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Previewing Apple's September 2016 Keynote, Thoughts Heading into the Event, Surprises and Wild Cards
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Previewing Apple's September 2016 Keynote
- Thoughts Heading into the Event
- Surprises and Wild Cards
Today's update is dedicated to previewing tomorrow's Apple hardware keynote. We begin by putting tomorrow's event in context and why this annual September event is still incredibly important for Apple. The email then turns to my expectations and thoughts about what to expect tomorrow. We go into detail about Apple's plan for iPhone and Apple Watch. We conclude by discussing a few potential surprises and wild cards, including my thoughts on where the Mac and iPad currently stand. Thursday's daily update will be dedicated to going over the Apple keynote in detail.
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Fitbit Announces Charge 2 and Flex 2, The Samsung Gear S3 Smartwatch, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Fitbit Announces Charge 2 and Flex 2
- The Samsung Gear S3 Smartwatch
- Thursday Q&A (iPhone Financials Edition)
We kick off today's update with a closer look at the new Fitbit health and fitness trackers. The company unveiled the Charge 2 and Flex 2. After going over some of the details for each product, I share my thoughts on the new products and what they mean for Fitbit and Apple in the wearables space. The email then turns to Samsung's new Gear S3 smartwatch. There were a few things about the watch that caught my attention. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Why did you update iPhone estimates right before next week's iPhone event?
- If this year's iPhone update seems lackluster, which metric do you think that would affect the most - new users or the upgrade rate?
- Can you rate your conservatism with these iPhone estimates?
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