3Q18 iPad Installed and User Base Estimates, The Changing Face of iPhone Sales, Apple Acquires Akonia Holographics
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- 3Q18 iPad Installed and User Base Estimates
- The Changing Face of iPhone Sales
- Apple Acquires Akonia Holographics
I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPad installed base and user base as of the end of June 2018. The discussion then goes over my thoughts on how the composition of iPhone sales continues to change. The email concludes with news of Apple acquiring Akonia Holographics.
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3Q18 iPhone Installed and User Base Estimates, Thinking About iPhone Upgraders, Bose Unveils New Stationary Speakers
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- 3Q18 iPhone Installed and User Base Estimates
- Thinking About iPhone Upgraders
- Bose Unveils New Stationary Speakers
I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base as of the end of June 2018. The discussion also includes my thoughts on iPhone upgraders. The email concludes with Bose unveiling new stationary smart speakers.
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Toyota Partners with Uber, A Key Value Driving Project Titan, Apple Pushing Paid iCloud Storage
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Toyota Partners with Uber
- A Key Value Driving Project Titan
- Apple Pushing Paid iCloud Storage
We kick off today's email in the car space. The discussion begins with Toyota partnering with Uber on self-driving cars. We then turn to a key value that is powering Project Titan and Apple's interest in transportation. The email concludes with a look at Apple pushing paid iCloud storage subscriptions and where I think Apple's paid iCloud storage options are headed.
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Netflix Testing Ways to Bypass iTunes Billing, Impact on Apple Services Revenue, Tesla to Remain Public
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Netflix Testing Ways to Bypass iTunes Billing
- Impact on Apple Services Revenue
- Tesla to Remain Public
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Netflix looking to bypass in-app purchases on iOS and iTunes billing. The discussion includes stress test scenarios to gauge the potential impact Netflix would have on Apple revenue by bypassing iTunes billing. We conclude with Elon Musk deciding Tesla is better off as a public company.
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The Rise of iPhone X Copycats, Apple vs. Samsung Design Bets, Tencent Struggles
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- The Rise of iPhone X Copycats
- Apple vs. Samsung Design Bets
- Tencent Struggles
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on the growing number of iPhone X copycats in the market. The discussion then turns to how Apple and Samsung are placing increasingly different design bets when it comes to smartphones and smartwatches. The email concludes with a look at Tencent's recent struggles.
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Apple Earnings Model, Apple FY2018 and FY2019 Estimates, Apple Valuation
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple Earnings Model
- Apple FY2018 and FY2019 Estimates
- Apple Valuation
Today's email begins with my Apple earnings model. As previously announced with the Above Avalon 2.0 launch, my Apple earnings model is now available for Above Avalon members.
The discussion includes a brief tutorial on earnings models. The email then turns to my FY2018 and FY2019 estimates and concludes with my thoughts on Apple's latest valuation metrics.
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Apple's Growth Narrative, Amazon Considering Buying Movie Theaters, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple's Growth Narrative
- Amazon Considering Buying Movie Theaters
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "Apple's Growth Story." In particular, we discuss the big picture regarding Apple's growth narrative over the next few years. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Amazon considering buying a chain of movie theaters. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Now that we saw what the $2.3B funded Magic Leap AR headset is capable of and looks like (bulky size & requires cables with external clip), how sure are you that Apple glasses will be ready within the next 1-2 years?
- The Mac seems like it’s been given a higher priority at Apple recently. Do you feel it’s still Apple’s Achilles Heel?
- Do you think “VoiceFirst” and “VoiceCommerce” are well past the hype cycle and heading fast for the trough of disillusionment?
- Regarding Apple’s project Titan perspective change in the past, and Tesla’s manufacturing challenges, do you think Apple made the right decision to focus on not the car itself but the platform/software aspect of it? What might be a scenario in which Apple’s “carOS” would become crucial for the industry and make Apple “relevant” in the auto industry.
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2Q18 Stationary Smart Speaker Sales, Estimating HomePod Sales, Amazon Alexa Device Sales Uncovered
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- 2Q18 Stationary Smart Speaker Sales
- Estimating HomePod Sales
- Amazon Alexa Device Sales Uncovered
Today's email has a stationary smart speaker theme. We kick off the discussion with a look at 2Q18 smart speaker industry sales. The discussion then turns specifically to HomePod sales. We conclude with a look at Amazon Alexa device sales. We go over a few ways to think about Alexa device sales in the context of the wrist wearables industry and the broader stationary smart speaker space.
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Peak Smartphone Innovation Absurdity, Swiss Watch Market Is Bifurcating, Waymo Announces Corporate Partnerships
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Peak Smartphone Innovation Absurdity
- Swiss Watch Market Is Bifurcating
- Waymo Announces Corporate Partnerships
We begin today's email with the debate around whether or not we have seen peak innovation in the smartphone industry. The discussion then turns to the latest Swiss watch market sales trends and how Apple Watch is using design to change the watch industry. We conclude with my thoughts on Waymo announcing a number of new corporate partnerships involving self-driving cars.
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Doug Field Joins Project Titan, Samsung’s Product Event in NYC, Samsung Continues to Bet on Circular Smartwatch Faces
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Doug Field Joins Project Titan
- Samsung’s Product Event in NYC
- Samsung Continues to Bet on Circular Smartwatch Faces
Today’s email begins with my thoughts on Doug Field returning to Apple. The discussion then turns to Samsung's product event in NYC, including the company's odd bet on circular smartwatch faces.
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Deep Dive into iPhone Channel Inventory, Estimating Sell-Through iPhone Demand, Apple Paid Subscription Trends
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Deep Dive into iPhone Channel Inventory
- Estimating Sell-Through iPhone Demand
- Apple Paid Subscription Trends
Today’s email begins with a closer look at iPhone channel inventory. We discuss some changes that have taken place in Apple's strategy. The email then turns to estimating sell-through demand for iPhone (excludes the impact from channel inventory adjustments). The discussion concludes with a look at Apple's paid subscriber trends. We go over the quarterly change in the number of paid subscriptions and my estimate of how much revenue Apple is bringing in from paid subscriptions.
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Elon Musk Wants to Take Tesla Private, Tesla Funding and Apple, Disney Discusses Video Strategy
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Elon Musk Wants to Take Tesla Private
- Tesla Funding and Apple
- Disney Discusses Video Strategy
Today’s email begins with the big Tesla news. The discussion then switches gears to talk about video streaming as Disney provided the clearest view yet of its video plans.
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Fitbit Earnings, Garmin Earnings, Wrist Wearables Market Observations
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Fitbit Earnings
- Garmin Earnings
- Wrist Wearables Market Observations
Today’s email has a wearables theme as we discuss Fitbit and Garmin earnings, concluding with some of my observations regarding developments in the wrist wearables space.
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Apple 3Q18 10-Q Notes, Apple Surpasses Trillion-Dollar Market Cap
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple 3Q18 10-Q Notes
- Apple Surpasses Trillion-Dollar Market Cap
Today's email kicks off with my notes from Apple's 3Q18 10-Q. We cover 14 topics. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Apple reaching a trillion-dollar market cap and why so many articles written about the subject were off base.
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Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Details)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple 3Q18 Earnings Review (Part 2 - Details)
Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 3Q18 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 25 different topics.
My full Apple 3Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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