Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue, Apple in Washington
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Bill Graham Civic Auditorium Intrigue
- Apple Takes Washington
Apple sent out invites to its September 9th keynote. I will be attending the event. Accordingly, we kick things off by taking a closer look at the Bill Graham Civic Auditorium, the venue for Apple's keynote. The building stands out from the type of buildings Apple has traditionally relied on to host Apple keynotes. We discuss a few things that may point to what kind of event is planned for the large venue. Next, we discuss the Politico Magazine article about Tim Cook and Apple once again embracing Washington and politics. There is much to keep in mind when thinking about Apple and Washington in the future.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Jeff Bezos Raises the White Flag, The Allure of Cheap Smartphones, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Jeff Bezos Raises the White Flag
- The Allure of Cheap Smartphones
- Thursday Q&A (Why did Sprint's first bet with iPhone not work out?)
We kick things off with news that Amazon is scaling back its consumer hardware ambitions. I was always skeptical of the strategy. After going over a bit of history as to where Amazon went wrong, we discuss what this announcement suggests about the current state of the consumer hardware industry. Next, we talk about Obi Worldphone, John Sculley's smartphone start-up and the allure of cheap smartphones. The dream may be real, but reality is far from ideal. We conclude with Thursday Q&A which takes a look at why Sprint's first deal with iPhone didn't turn around Sprint's fortunes.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple is Learning from Best Buy, The Cable Bundle's Future
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple is Learning from Best Buy
- The Cable Bundle's Futur
There was big news out of Best Buy yesterday as the company is accelerating its Apple Watch rollout due to strong demand. We take a closer look at this news and why I think Apple may be rethinking a few things about Apple Watch retail as a result. Yesterday I published an Above Avalon post about the idea of Apple destroying the big cable bundle with a leaner bundle. Today, we take a deep dive into why the video bundle is good for consumers, why I don't think bundle alternatives like direct to consumer or pay per episode will work, and what needs to be done to make the bundle relevant in a mobile world.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Tim Cook Email Read Around the World, Clues Apple Won't Buy Tesla, Apple Marketing to Embrace Vlogs
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Tim Cook Email Read Around the World
- Clues Apple Won't Buy Tesla
- Apple Marketing To Embrace Vlogs
Tim Cook emailed CNBC's Jim Cramer about China. We take a closer look at the email and why it was such a big deal. We then shift over to a growing number of clues that continue to point to Apple not buying Tesla (or any other legacy car manufacturer). Such deals not only make little sense, but would likely cause major problems for Apple. We conclude with a deeper look at news that Apple is planning to embrace vlogging by working with a well-known vlogger, Louis Cole. I think this is a great move by Apple.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Thoughts on Friday's Stock Market Move and AAPL Drop, Apple Valuation Metrics, China Mobile Subscriber Numbers
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Friday's Stock Market Move and AAPL Drop
- Apple Valuation Metrics (Base and bear case using my 2016 estimates)
- China Mobile Subscriber Numbers
The stock market continues to undergo an incredible amount of volatility, and early indicators point to another wild week. We kick things off by taking a closer look at what is going on in this market and discussing some observations I'm seeing with AAPL shares. We then shift over to AAPL valuation metrics, going over both base and bear cases. We conclude with a closer look at recent China Mobile subscriber numbers. Data would suggest the iPhone is indeed a primary driver of China Mobile's 4G strength with 2015 looking like a pivotal year in terms of smartphone growth in China.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The iPhone's Future, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
The iPhone's Future
- Too Much Focus on the Near-Term
- The iPhone's Changing Role in Our Lives
- Form Factor Optimization
- Addressing Price Layers
- Changing Resource Allocation
- About that Watch...
Along with covering the latest stories impacting Apple, one of my goals with this email is to discuss original topics and ideas that help understand how Apple looks at the world. One benefit of a daily email is we can then discuss these themes over time and not just as one-time stories. Along those lines, today's email is all about the iPhone's future. We then conclude with Thursday Q&A: Why do all of the U.S. mobile carriers seem to love the iPhone all of a sudden?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
More Evidence Apple Music is Doing Just OK, Comcast's Strategic Investments in BuzzFeed and Vox, A Closer Look at Mac Financials
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- More Evidence Apple Music is Doing Just OK
- Comcast's Latest Investment in BuzzFeed and Vox is Significant
- A Closer Look at Mac Financials
We begin today's email by going over MusicWatch's customer survey on Apple Music. There's a little bit of something for everyone in the results, but I do think we are starting to reach a general conclusion about how Apple Music is performing. We then shift over to Comcast investing in BuzzFeed and Vox in a rather significant strategic development for both companies (as well as for Comcast). There are implications here that will touch the entire media space, including Apple's plans for TV. We conclude with a closer look at the Mac business (revenue, unit sales, margin, EPS).
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Abysmal Cable Network Viewership Trends, Sprint Is Betting the Company on iPhone, A Closer Look at iPad Financials
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Abysmal Cable Network Viewership Trends
- Sprint Is Betting the Company on iPhone
- A Closer Look at iPad Financials
We begin today's email by taking a look at cable network viewership trends from July. The dismal results are giving me more doubt that this idea of a slimmed down cable bundle will be as successful as once thought. We then switch over to the continued upheaval in the U.S. wireless industry, with Sprint announcing a significant new iPhone deal that is yet another sign of iPhone's true power. We conclude with a closer look at and some perspective about iPad financials (revenue, unit sales, margins, EPS).
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple Scouting Self-Driving Car Testing Area, Samsung's Unpacked Event, Free Cash Flow 101
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Scouting Self-Driving Car Testing Area
- Samsung's Unpacked Event
- Free Cash Flow 101
We kick things off with a closer look at the Guardian's article about discovering documents that prove Apple is building a self-driving car and scouting for Apple Car testing areas. I actually have a different interpretation of the Guardian's reporting. We will then go over the main takeaway from Samsung's recent press event in NYC and why the company is focusing so much on messaging these days. Today's email concludes with a closer look at free cash flow, including how to calculate it and why it is a more useful financial metric to follow compared to earnings.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
The Smartphone Subsidy Myth, Fossil is Seeing Issues in the Watch Market, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- The Smartphone Subsidy Myth
- Fossil is Seeing Issues in the Watch Market
- Thursday Q&A (Which Apple valuation metrics are most relevant to consider as AAPL volatility increases?)
We kick things off by discussing the smartphone subsidy myth. The iPhone subsidy Apple bear case argument simply doesn't hold much logic. We take a look at three key developments taking place in the U.S. smartphone market that demonstrate what is really happening. We next discuss Fossil's recent earnings call, which gave quite a few clues as to what is happening in the low-end luxury watch market. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and my favorite AAPL valuation metrics.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
China's Yuan Devaluation and Apple
Today's Above Avalon story:
- China's Yuan Devaluation
Given the importance of this development, I am dedicating today's email to the issue, breaking up the topic into a few stories.
- What Happened?
- Brief Background
- China's Growth Story is Cracking
- Continued Yuan Devaluation Headwinds
- Where Does This Leave Apple?
- Final Takeaways
Yesterday, China's central bank cut its daily reference rate for the yuan against the U.S dollar by 1.9%. Earlier today, the rate was cut by another 1.6% with the central bank ending up intervening to prop up the currency at the end of the day. This is a significant negative development for Apple. More concerning is that this move is now causing more people to begin questioning Apple's growth story in China. We take a closer look at the yuan, including a brief background of the issue at hand and what it might mean for Apple's growth potential in China. We also look at the new headwinds now facing Apple, the exact parts of Apple's business impacted by a weaker yuan, and a few final takeaways.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Thoughts on Alphabet, Finding iPad's Future, U.S. Watch Sales Collapsed in June
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Alphabet - We discuss two primary takeaways from yesterday's big announcement from Larry Page, as well as the primary implications this reorganization may have on Apple.
- Finding iPad's Future ("Director's Cut") - I discuss a bit of background as to how I've thought about the iPad and why change is needed.
- U.S. Watch Sales Collapsed in June - NPD reported that watch unit sales were down 14% from 2014. We take a closer look at the numbers, including Apple and Fitbit's recent earnings, to come to a few conclusions on what may be happening.
Google added a bit of excitement to the news cycle yesterday afternoon by announcing a major reorganization. I have a few observations on the move, including two main takeaways on the new structure and what it may mean for Apple. We next shift over to a director's cut of my most recent Above Avalon post "Finding iPad's Future," including why the iPad has been bothering me the past few years. We conclude by going over interesting news from NPD saying that U.S. watch sales collapsed in June. A closer look may help reveal what is going on in the "wrist wearable" space.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Apple Music Family Membership Strength, Jimmy Iovine on Curation, Cable's Problem
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Apple Music Family Membership Strength - Eddy Cue's comments on Apple Music membership numbers suggest family plans will indeed be a leading factor giving the service life.
- Jimmy Iovine on Curation - When music streaming is a commodity, you need to offer something else if you want people to attach greater value to it.
- Cable's Problem - I'm increasingly starting to doubt people know what they want when thinking about the future of television.
We kick things off with two stories on Apple Music. Apple released Apple Music subscriber numbers and while they are close to what we heard two weeks ago, there are are some interesting developments when looking at the number of family plans. We then go over Jimmy Iovine's comments about Apple Music, human curation, and where TV is going wrong. We conclude with a look at what I think is cable's biggest problem and what the record-breaking ratings from last week's Republican presidential primary debate told me about cable in 2015.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
iPhone Upgrade Cycle and Growth Estimate, Fitbit Earnings, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Calculating the iPhone Upgrade Cycle to Reach 2016 iPhone Growth - We discuss the variables used to obtain the length of the iPhone upgrade cycle and then how to take this information to reach an iPhone growth estimate for 2016.
- Fitbit Earnings - Observations and perspective on Fitbit's quarterly results and what it may mean for Apple and Apple Watch.
- Thursday Q&A - Each Thursday, I highlight a question or two from members. This week's question: "Can Apple's buyback program affect the stock price slide?"
We continue our series of stories taking a closer look at the iPhone business. Today, we calculate the length of the iPhone upgrade cycle and then use those calculations to reach our estimates for 2016 iPhone sales growth. Next, we shift over to Fitbit earnings. I consider the company to be an interesting peer to Apple that will be useful for analyzing when considering Apple Watch and Apple's interest in health and fitness. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and a question about AAPL share buyback and the impact on an AAPL price drop.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.
Thoughts on Apple's Stock Drop, Apple Buys Land in San Jose, A Few Apple Watch Musings
Today's Above Avalon stories:
- Thoughts on Apple's Stock Drop - How I am thinking about Apple's recent stock price move.
- Apple Buys Significant Amount of Land in San Jose - We compare this recent land purchase to Apple's existing building space, in addition to discussing Apple's overall real estate expansion plans.
- A Few Apple Watch Musings - Month three of my Apple Watch usage was interesting.
I pushed back the next iPhone growth story until tomorrow. Instead, I had some comments on Apple's stock drop which seemed to enter a new gear this past Monday and yesterday. We next discuss two theories I have for why Apple just bought 43 acres of open land in San Jose. Needless to say, Apple may be thinking very big here. We conclude with a few musings I have on Apple Watch as I have been using the device for three months.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's stories and receive future stories in a daily email containing 2-3 stories (10-12 stories/week). You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on membership, click here.