Apple’s Tricky Road to a Trillion, Samsung’s Flagship Smartphone Not Selling Well, Walmart Exploring Subscription Video Streaming Service
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple’s Tricky Road to a Trillion
- Samsung’s Flagship Smartphone Not Selling Well
- Walmart Exploring Subscription Video Streaming Service
We begin today's email with my thoughts on the narrative that Apple's share buyback and dividends are making it increasingly difficult for Apple to reach a trillion dollar market cap. The discussion then turns to Samsung's earnings and the company blaming its weak performance on lackluster demand for its flagship smartphone. We conclude things with my thoughts on Walmart investigating its own subscription video streaming service.
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Apple’s Growing Confidence in iPad, Spotify 2Q18 Earnings, Apple to Drop Qualcomm Modems
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple’s Growing Confidence in iPad
- Spotify 2Q18 Earnings
- Apple to Drop Qualcomm Modems
We begin today's email with my recent weekly article, "The iPad vs. Mac Juxtaposition." In particular, we discuss how Apple's growing confidence in its iPad business is impacting the way it approaches the Mac. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Spotify's 2Q18 earnings. We conclude with a closer look at prospects of Apple moving away from Qualcomm modems in this year's flagship iPhones.
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Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Revenue, EPS, Share Buyback, 4Q18 Guidance), Facebook's Dramatic Stock Price Drop
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 4 - Revenue, EPS, Share Buyback, 4Q18 Guidance)
- Facebook's Dramatic Stock Price Drop
Today's email concludes my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We look at the more important financial line items in my model, including my share buyback and 4Q18 guidance projections. We also go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first three parts of my 3Q18 earnings preview are available: here (setting the stage), here (iPhone estimates), and here (iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services estimates).
We also discuss my thoughts on Facebook's big drop on Wall Street in response to the company's earnings.
My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services Estimates)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 3 - iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services Estimates)
Today's email continues my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my iPad, Mac, Apple Watch, Other Products, and Services estimates. We go over the methodology and data behind all of my estimates. The first two parts of the preview are available here (setting the stage) and here (iPhone estimates).
Tomorrow's email will conclude my earnings preview with a big picture view heading into next week's earnings as well as my revenue, EPS, capital return, and 4Q18 guidance estimates.
My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (iPhone Estimates)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 2 - iPhone Estimates)
Today's email continues my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. (The first part of the preview is available here.) We discuss my iPhone unit sales, average selling price (ASP), and a few stress test scenarios. In addition, we go over the methodology and data behind my iPhone estimates. Tomorrow's email will go over my iPad, Mac, Services, and Apple Watch estimates.
My full Apple 3Q18 earnings preview is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Setting the Stage), Apple's OLED Diversification Efforts Grow, Mapping Video Talent in Hollywood
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple 3Q18 Earnings Preview (Part 1 - Setting the Stage)
- Apple's OLED Diversification Efforts Grow
- Mapping Video Talent in Hollywood
Today's email includes the first part of my Apple 3Q18 earnings preview. We discuss my thoughts on the overall environment heading into next week's earnings. The email then turns to BOE Technology Group Company trying to become an iPhone OLED display supplier. We look at Apple's expanding efforts to diversify its OLED supply. We conclude with Shonda Rhimes beginning to talk about her Netflix deal and what Rhimes' decision tells us about how the best talent view the various players entering the video streaming wars.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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How Apple Is Changing, 2Q18 Microsoft Surface Sales, Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- How Apple Is Changing
- 2Q18 Microsoft Surface Sales
- Q&A
We begin today's email with my thoughts on a recent article by Jason Snell for Macworld regarding four ways Apple has thrown out its old playbook. The email then turns to Microsoft earnings, and we look at Microsoft Surface sales. We conclude with an installment of Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- What do I think about a camera for Apple Watch? Do I see this as a priority for Apple?
- When will macOS be able to run on A series chips? Would Apple move completely over to its own chips for Mac?
- What happens to iPhone demand if Apple lowers entry-level iPhone pricing to $299 or lower (from the current $349)?
- Why were Richard Howarth and Alan Dye removed from Apple’s leadership page?
- Do I think there is something more to Apple and satellites given my Apple Maps discussion?
- How do I determine which stories to discuss in these daily emails?
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Additional Thoughts on iPhone Sales Mix, Netflix Moves into Radio, Berkshire Having Trouble Spending Excess Cash
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Additional Thoughts on iPhone Sales Mix
- Netflix Moves into Radio
- Berkshire Having Trouble Spending Excess Cash
We begin today's email with a few additional thoughts on the current iPhone sales mix and what it may suggest about the need for Apple to raise or lower iPhone pricing. The email then turns to Netflix announcing a move into radio. We conclude with a discussion of how Berkshire Hathaway, one of Apple's top shareholders, is adjusting its own buyback criteria and how it could impact Warren Buffett's AAPL purchases.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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App Store vs. Google Play Metrics, iPhone Sales Mix, 2Q18 PC and Mac Shipments
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- App Store vs. Google Play Metrics
- iPhone Sales Mix
- 2Q18 PC and Mac Shipments
We kick off today's email with my takeaways from Sensor Tower's 1H18 recap for the App Store and Google Play. The email then turns to iPhone and new data regarding iPhone sales mix by device. We conclude by going over the latest PC and Mac shipment estimates from IDC.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Netflix 2Q18 Earnings, Facebook Hires Google Chip Leader, Apple’s Struggles in India Continue
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Netflix 2Q18 Earnings
- Facebook Hires Google Chip Leader
- Apple’s Struggles in India Continue
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Netflix's 2Q18 earnings results. The discussion then turns to Facebook poaching a key player in Google's silicon efforts. We go over my three observations about the move. The email concludes with Apple reportedly running into more trouble in India.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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App Store Turns 10, Valuing Wall Street Giants, Magic Leap Hype Fizzles
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
App Store Turns 10
Valuing Wall Street Giants
Magic Leap Hype Fizzles
We begin today's email with my thoughts on the App Store turning 10 years old. The email then turns to my weekly article, "The Race to a Trillion." In particular, we discuss how today's Wall Street giants are valued. The discussion concludes with Magic Leap hype and why I think the company is making some major mistakes.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
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Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Updates are sent via email and go over current news and developments impacting Apple, its competitors, and the industries Apple plays in (or will play in). Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here.
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Project Titan Is Huge, John Giannandrea Starts at Apple
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Project Titan Is Huge
- John Giannandrea Starts at Apple
We kick off today's email by going over the latest Project Titan news. The FBI arrested a former Project Titan employee for allegedly stealing Apple trade secrets. The criminal complaint provides the clearest view yet of Apple’s Project Titan. The discussion then turns to John Giannandrea, former Google chief of search and artificial intelligence, officially starting at Apple. A few things about Giannandrea's place within Apple's leadership team jump out at me.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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AT&T / HBO Drama, Poaching HBO Talent, Microsoft Surface Go
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- AT&T / HBO Drama
- Poaching HBO Talent
- Microsoft Surface Go
We begin today's email by going over my thoughts regarding AT&T pushing dramatic changes upon HBO. The discussion then turns to the idea of a brain drain developing at HBO. We end the email by going over Microsoft Surface Go and the fundamental design difference between Surface and iPad / Mac.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Sonos Files to Go Public, The Sonos Problem, Apple Music Pulls Ahead of Spotify in the U.S.
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Sonos Files to Go Public
- The Sonos Problem
- Apple Music Pulls Ahead of Spotify in the U.S.
We kick off today's email with Sonos. We first go over the most interesting statistics and numbers from Sonos' Form S-1 IPO filing. The discussion will then turn to my overall thoughts on Sonos and its IPO. The email concludes with a discussion of Apple Music reportedly bypassing Spotify in terms of the number of paying users in the U.S. We go over how troubling trends are brewing for Spotify.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Tesla's Rapid Evolution, Conventional Wisdom vs. Tesla, Microsoft Working on Foldable Surface
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Tesla's Rapid Evolution
- Conventional Wisdom vs. Tesla
- Microsoft Working on Foldable Surface
We begin today's email by discussing the latest Tesla developments. The email then turns to reports that Microsoft will unveil a new product category based on a foldable display.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.
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