Andy Rubin's Essential Phone, Rubin at Code Conference, Everyone Is Trying to Beat iPhone
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Andy Rubin's Essential Phone
- Rubin at Code Conference
- Everyone Is Trying to Beat iPhone
We kick off today's email by taking a deep dive into Andy Rubin's new company, Essential, and new smartphone, Phone. We go over my thoughts on the motivation underpinning the smartphone. The discussion then turns to Rubin's interview at Recode's Code Conference last night. I was left very disappointed. The email concludes with a look at why the iPhone represents such a headache to so many companies, and the various strategies companies are utilizing in an attempt to beat iPhone.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple Working on AI Chip, Apple Poaches Qualcomm VP, Marc Newson's $12,000 Hourglass
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Working on AI Chip
- Apple Poaches Qualcomm VP
- Marc Newson's $12,000 Hourglass
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Apple developing its own chip dedicated to handling artificial intelligence processing. The email then turns to Apple poaching a Qualcomm VP with experience in baseband processors. Smoke continues to accumulate around the idea of Apple bringing modem design in-house. We go over a few of the recent developments that give me increasing confidence in Apple's motivation. The email concludes with a look at Marc Newson's $12,000 Hourglass. The Apple industrial designer has received some pushback regarding the product. We discuss the product, the pushback, and the genius behind Marc Newson when it comes to materials and manufacturing. We also go over why the Hourglass reminds me of the Apple Watch Edition (first generation).
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Apple Acquires Beddit, Apple and Nokia End Patent Battle
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Acquires Beddit
- Apple and Nokia End Patent Battle
We kick off today's email with my thoughts on Apple acquiring Beddit, a hardware and software company focused on sleep monitoring. We go over Beddit's history and product. In addition, we look at Apple's motivation for acquiring the company. The discussion then turns to news of Apple and Nokia settling all litigation between each other. We take a deep dive into why this particular Nokia settlement seems different than previous Apple/Nokia settlements. There are implications related to Apple's growing war with Qualcomm.
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New 2017 and 2018 Apple EPS Estimates, Thoughts on Apple's Current Valuation, Number of Apple Devices in Wild
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- New 2017 and 2018 Apple EPS Estimates
- Thoughts on Apple's Current Valuation
- Number of Apple Devices in Wild
We kick off today's email with a look at my revised Apple EPS estimates for 2017 and 2018. The discussion then takes a step back to focus on Apple's current valuation. We go over my preferred valuation metric and then begin addressing Apple's valuation compared to the overall market. The email concludes with a look at the number of Apple devices in the wild. We break the total out according to product (iPhone, iPad, Mac, Apple TV, iPod touch, and Apple Watch). We then discuss a number of key takeaways from Apple's product mix.
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Raising My Apple Watch Sales Estimates, Valuing the Apple Watch Business, Revised iPad Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Raising My Apple Watch Sales Estimates
- Valuing the Apple Watch Business
- Revised iPad Sales Estimates
We begin today's email with a deep dive into my revised Apple Watch sales estimates. My confidence level in Apple selling a significantly higher number of Apple Watches has increased. The email then turns to valuing the Apple Watch business in order to remove the product from the iPhone spotlight. This exercise helps show just how large of a business the Apple Watch has become after just two years. The email concludes with my thoughts on iPad sales for the rest of FY2017 and FY2018.
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2Q17 iPhone Installed Base Estimate, 2Q17 iPhone User Base Estimate, Revised 2017 and 2018 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- 2Q17 iPhone Installed Base Estimate
- 2Q17 iPhone User Base Estimate
- Revised 2017 and 2018 iPhone Sales Estimates
Today's email is focused on iPhone financials. We begin by discussing the iPhone installed base. I share my revised estimate for the size of the iPhone installed base at the end of 2Q17. The discussion then turns to discussing the iPhone user base. We go over the difference between the iPhone installed base and user base, including my revised estimate for the size of the iPhone user base at the end of 2Q17. We conclude by discussing my revised iPhone unit sales estimates for FY2017 and FY2018.
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Google I/O 2017, Google Home, YouTube
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Google I/O 2017
- Google Home
- YouTube
Today's email will be dedicated to discussing Google I/O 2017. We first go over my thoughts on the Google I/O keynote, including the strongest and weakest points. We look at the keynote from Apple's perspective. We then take a deep dive into the new Google Home features and discuss implications related to Apple's interest in the smart speaker space. The email concludes with a closer look at why YouTube received such a prominent spot in yesterday's keynote.
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Inside Apple Park, Apple Park Is an Apple Product, Jony's Focus
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Inside Apple Park
- Apple Park Is an Apple Product
- Jony's Focus
Today's email will be dedicated to Steven Levy's big profile on Apple's new headquarters, Apple Park. There was a lot to unpack. We will begin with some of my overall thoughts about the piece, and then we will focus on a few major takeaways regarding Apple Park and Jony Ive.
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Apple Invests in Corning, Garmin 1Q17 Wearables Sales
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Invests in Corning
- Garmin 1Q17 Wearables Sales
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple investing $200M in Corning. We discuss Apple's history with Corning and why Apple is investing in the company. We also go over the Apple/Corning press conference from last week, in which Apple COO Jeff Williams spoke. There were a number of takeaways from the event. The email then turns to Garmin's 1Q17 earnings. In what may come as a surprise to most people, Garmin has become a leading wearables company. We go over the company's financials in order to derive Garmin wrist wearables sales for 1Q17. We then go over a few reasons why I think Garmin and Fossil are similar to each other when it comes to competing against Apple Watch in the wearables space.
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Microsoft Unveils Surface Laptop, Wall Street's Latest Apple Bear Case, Apple Wearables are Underestimated
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Microsoft Unveils Surface Laptop
- Wall Street's Latest Apple Bear Case
- Apple Wearables are Underestimated
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Microsoft's Surface Laptop. We go over Microsoft's sales pitch for the product and how much of a competitive threat it poses to Mac. The discussion then turns to how Apple's valuation surpassing $800B is breeding the latest Apple bear case involving the company being unable to stay on top of Wall Street. We go over the bear case in detail. The discussion concludes by focusing on Apple wearables. We discuss why I think the product category is being underestimated and how wearables play a key role in Apple's future.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Fossil Seeing Strong Smartwatch Demand, Snap Discloses Spectacles Sales, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Fossil Seeing Strong Smartwatch Demand
- Snap Discloses Spectacles Sales
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email with my thoughts and observations on Fossil's 1Q17 earnings. The clothing and accessories company had quite a bit to say about the smartwatch market. We also go over my estimate for the number of smartwatches Fossil sold during 1Q17 and it how it compares to other wrist wearables companies. The discussion then turns to Snap's 1Q17 earnings. We go over the company's Spectacles (sunglasses with a camera) sales, and the best way to judge how Spectacles are performing. We end the email with the latest installment of member Q&A, and I answer the following questions from Above Avalon members:
- Should Apple own more of their manufacturing, instead of relying on third parties?
- What have I heard about the Apple Watch including blood monitoring functionality?
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Amazon Unveils Echo Show, The Echo Show Is a Step Backwards, Echo Show vs. Apple Watch
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Amazon Unveils Echo Show
- The Echo Show Is a Step Backwards
- Echo Show vs. Apple Watch
We begin today's email with my thoughts and observations on the Echo Show, Amazon's new 7-inch tablet speaker powered by Alexa. The discussion turns to Amazon's strategy behind Echo Show and why I think the product ends up being a step backwards when it comes to removing barriers between technology and the user. The email then turns to why the Echo Show is not like Apple Watch in terms of reducing smartphone friction. We discuss how Echo Show is the complete opposite of Apple Watch.
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Apple 2Q17 10-Q Takeaways, Phil Schiller Discusses Hot Button Issues, Amazon Video Coming to Apple TV
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple 2Q17 10-Q Takeaways
- Phil Schiller Discusses Hot Button Issues
- Amazon Video Coming to Apple TV
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple's 2Q17 10-Q filing. The discussion includes nine financial items found in the filing. We then turn to Apple SVP Phil Schiller's recent interview in India. He discussed a few controversial topics including App Store economics and voice-driven assistants. The email concludes with my thoughts on Amazon getting ready to introduce an Amazon Video app for Apple TV. We go over Amazon's motivation behind the move, including a look at the changing streaming media market.
These stories are available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple Watch Outsells Fitbit, Fitbit Begins a Pivot, Apple Watch's Health and Fitness Detour
Today's Above Avalon email includes the following stories:
- Apple Watch Outsells Fitbit
- Fitbit Begins a Pivot
- Apple Watch's Health and Fitness Detour
We begin today's email with my thoughts on Apple Watch outselling Fitbit for the first time last quarter. After going over the sales numbers, we discuss the dramatic momentum shift in the wrist wearables space. The email then takes a closer look at Fitbit's 1Q17 earnings and the company's plan to pivot into new businesses. Fitbit no longer just wants to sell dedicated health and fitness trackers. We go over what Fitbit intends to focus on going forward and whether the company has found a viable path. The discussion concludes with a closer look at how Apple put the Apple Watch on a health and fitness detour to better compete with Fitbit. With Fitbit now imploding, there are implications as to what may happen to Apple Watch's health and fitness detour going forward.
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Apple 2Q17 Earnings Review: Details
Today's daily email includes the second half of my Apple 2Q17 earnings review. Yesterday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 29 different topics.
The full earnings review is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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