Financial Implications of Apple’s New Services
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing some of the business and financial implications associated with the new services Apple announced this week.
The email includes my thoughts and initial estimates regarding the number of paying subscribers, revenue, and profit that Apple’s newest services can achieve over the next three years.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple's Services Event Review (Full Notes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the second half of my Apple event review. We go over my full notes from this week’s event at Steve Jobs Theater. We cover 31 different topics.
The first half of my event review (major themes) is available here.
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Apple’s Services Event Review (Major Themes)
Today’s Above Avalon daily update contains the first half of my Apple event review. We go over some of the major themes from yesterday’s event at Steve Jobs Theater.
The email includes the following sections:
Overview / The Event
The Apple Services Narrative
Apple’s Services Sales Pitch
Apple Doesn’t Need to Own Netflix
Unanswered Questions
The Lack of Pricing Info
The Sleeper Hit
The second half of the review (details and full notes) is available here.
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Thoughts Heading into Apple’s Show Time Event
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to going over my thoughts and expectations ahead of Apple's big product event in Cupertino on Monday.
The 2,700-word email includes the following sections:
High Expectations
The Big Picture
Apple Video
Apple News
Other / Wildcards
Summary
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
(Above Avalon members will receive my Apple event review next week.)
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Apple’s Busy Week of Hardware Updates, Apple Announces New AirPods, Apple Resets India Strategy
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple’s Busy Week of Hardware Updates
Apple Announces New AirPods
Apple Resets India Strategy
We begin today’s email by discussing Apple’s different strategy for unveiling various hardware updates this week. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on the new AirPods with wireless charging case. The email concludes by going over changes Apple is making to its strategy in India. Apple appears to be doing the opposite of what most industry analysts and pundits have been suggesting.
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Apple’s New Privacy Ad, Electric Car Adoption Trends, VW Raises Bet on Electric Cars
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple’s New Privacy Ad
Electric Car Adoption Trends
VW Raises Bet on Electric Cars
We kick off the email by going over Apple’s first video ad regarding privacy. The discussion includes a few tactics Apple is utilizing to build its privacy image. We then turn to transportation and discuss electric car adoption trends in the U.S. and around the world. After going over the numbers, we take a closer look at Volkswagen raising its electric car projections for the coming decade. The email concludes with my big picture view on electric cars and why adoption trends may not be the best way to think about the potential found with electric powertrains.
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Apple Responds to Spotify, Apple’s Counterclaim Against Spotify, Tesla Unveils Model Y
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Responds to Spotify
Apple’s Counterclaim Against Spotify
Tesla Unveils Model Y
Last week, Spotify unveiled a substantial public relations campaign tied to filing an antitrust complaint against Apple with the European Commission. We begin today’s update with my thoughts on Apple’s response to Spotify. The discussion then turns to Tesla’s Model Y unveiling and how the event was not like the typical Tesla event.
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Spotify Declares War Against Apple Over the App Store
Today's Above Avalon daily update is dedicated to discussing Spotify filing an antitrust complaint against Apple with the European Commission.
The 2,500-word email includes the following sections:
Spotify's Argument
Why Now?
Spotify Launches Big PR Push
Apple's Perspective
The Stronger Argument
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive the full Above Avalon experience throughout the week.
The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Daily updates are 2,000 words and sent via email Monday through Thursday. Updates revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Neil’s perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Neil’s Apple financial estimates.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Receive Exclusive Daily Updates. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to Neil’s exclusive daily updates about Apple. Each email is 2,000 words and includes Neil’s analysis and perspective on the most important stories and news impacting Apple. Unlike other paid emails that may sporadically talk about Apple, every Above Avalon daily update is focused on Apple. New updates are sent Monday through Thursday. Approximately 200 daily updates published throughout the year. Sample daily updates can be viewed here, here, and here. Members have the option of receiving a consolidated weekly version of the daily updates. In addition, an RSS feed is available for members. The daily updates can also be consumed in audio via the Above Avalon Daily podcast (available to members as an add-on feature).
Access Reports and Neil’s Earnings Model. Members have access to Above Avalon reports, which are in-depth examinations of Apple's business and financial strategy. Each report is 4,000 to 5,000 words and covers one Apple topic. Members also have access to Neil’s working Apple earnings model (an Excel file that also works in Numbers). The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers. Reports and Neil’s earnings model are available to members at no additional cost.
Email Priority. Receive priority when it comes to having email questions and inquiries answered. Neil personally answers all inquiries, including any customer service matters related to your membership.
Archive Access. Read more than 1,100 daily updates and five reports that have been previously sent to members. The Above Avalon member archive is unmatched in the marketplace in terms of the sheer amount of Apple analysis found in one location. The daily updates archive can be viewed here while the reports archive is available here.
Member Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in an active forum containing in-depth discussion and debate. While most private member forums have limited participation, the Above Avalon member forum has become known as one of the more vibrant private communities dedicated to Apple. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. There is a specific forum channel for members to share AAPL stock and options trading strategies. Neil moderates and participates in the forum. The forum is run through Slack and can be accessed here.
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Member Meet-ups. Meet Neil and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Capex (Continued), Apple's Free Cash Flow Advantage, Revisiting Apple's Wall Street Narrative
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Capex (Continued)
Apple's Free Cash Flow Advantage
Revisiting Apple's Wall Street Narrative
We begin today’s update with additional comments on the latest Above Avalon article, “Apple's Declining Capex” In particular, we look at what declining capex tell us about Apple’s business model. The discussion then turns to how Apple has a built-in advantage versus peers when it comes to free cash flow generation. The email concludes with my thoughts on AAPL valuation and why I don’t think AAPL shares are being guided by a new narrative involving Apple Services.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple Watch vs. Apple Glasses, The Wrist's Value, Elizabeth Warren and Apple
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Watch vs. Apple Glasses
The Wrist's Value
Elizabeth Warren and Apple
We kick off today’s email with my thoughts on whether or not Apple Glasses will cannibalize Apple Watch sales. The discussion also goes over why I think the wrist will retain its value as key real estate in the wearables era. The email concludes with Elizabeth Warren’s call to break up Facebook, Google, and Amazon. We tackle the topic from Apple’s perspective, including why I think she didn’t group Apple in with the other giants.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
Apple Glasses Rumors Begin, Focals by North, HoloLens 2 vs. Apple Glasses
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Glasses Rumors Begin
Focals by North
HoloLens 2 vs. Apple Glasses
Today’s email has a smart glasses theme. We begin today’s email with a look at the new Apple Glasses rumor from Ming-Chi Kuo. We go over where Kuo is getting his information and which parts of his report are more likely to be true. The discussion then turns to two different approaches to smart glasses: Focals by North and HoloLens 2 by Microsoft. We then compare the two products to what I suspect Apple is planning to do with glasses.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this daily update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Above Avalon members receive all of my analysis and perspective on Apple. The cornerstone of Above Avalon membership is access to my exclusive daily updates about Apple.
Daily updates are 2,000-word emails that revolve around the following topics:
Apple business and strategy analysis.
Apple financial estimates.
My perspective and observations on current news and Apple competitors.
Full coverage of Apple earnings, product events, and keynotes.
If it is of interest to Apple, it is something I pay attention to.
Member Privileges and Benefits
Exclusive Analysis. Receive exclusive daily updates containing my analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. Approximately 200 daily updates are published throughout the year. Members also receive my exclusive reports, in-depth examinations into Apple's business strategy. Each report covers one topic, and a new report is published each quarter.
Email Priority. Receive timely responses to email questions and inquiries.
Apple Earnings Model. Access my working Apple earnings model. The model is fully functional and adjustable with the ability to alter earnings drivers.
Archive Access. Read daily updates and reports previously sent to members. The archive can be viewed here.
Forum Access. Join other Above Avalon members in a forum containing in-depth discussion and Apple debate. The forum can be accessed here. Members live in 55 countries and hold a diverse range of backgrounds and occupations. I (Neil Cybart) personally moderate and oversee the forum.
Receive Above Avalon Weekly Articles via Email. Receive the weekly Above Avalon article via email. This feature is only available to members.
Member meet-ups. Meet me and other Above Avalon members to discuss Apple and other related news items. Prior meet-ups have taken place in San Francisco, Cupertino, and San Jose. Future meet-ups are possible in other cities.
Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent source of Apple analysis. Above Avalon is fully sustained by its members.
iPhone Sales Update, Mark Zuckerberg's Privacy-Focused Vision, Apple Raises Bet on San Diego
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
iPhone Sales Update
Mark Zuckerberg's Privacy-Focused Vision
Apple Raises Bet on San Diego
We begin today’s email with a look at the latest iPhone adoption data. The data serves as a good proxy for iPhone sell-through demand. The discussion then turns to my thoughts on Mark Zuckerberg’s post about his “privacy-focused vision” for social networking. We conclude with two takeaways from Apple raising its bet on San Diego.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
How Apple Prevailed in Trade Tensions, Chinese Online Retailers Cut iPhone Pricing, The Netflix of Podcasts
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
How Apple Prevailed in Trade Tensions
Chinese Online Retailers Cut iPhone Pricing
The Netflix of Podcasts
We kick off today’s email with Politico’s recent article about Tim Cook successfully navigating Apple through U.S. / China trade tensions. We discuss why writers from political circles approach Apple and U.S. / China trade tensions quite differently than writers from the tech industry. The email then turns to Apple pushing another round of iPhone price cuts in China. We conclude with my thoughts on Luminary, a podcasts start-up that just came out of stealth mode, and the broader changes unfolding in podcasts land.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Apple Executives Deeply Involved in Video Effort, AT&T Reorganizes WarnerMedia, Apple Acquires Lighthouse AI Patents
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple Executives Deeply Involved in Video Effort
AT&T Reorganizes WarnerMedia
Apple Acquires Lighthouse AI Patents
We begin today’s update with the NY Post’s article regarding Tim Cook playing a very hands-on role with Apple’s video efforts. The discussion goes over Apple’s leadership structure and who is making the final decision on which shows get the green light. We also go a few reasons why Apple may be so interested in family-friendly video content. The email then turns to WarnerMedia announcing a reorganization to better compete in streaming. We conclude with my thoughts on Apple acquiring a number of patents from Lighthouse AI.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.
Tesla Announces $35K Model 3, Tesla to Close Stores, Questioning the Tesla Story
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Tesla Announces $35K Model 3
Tesla to Close Stores
Questioning the Tesla Story
Today's 3,200-word email is dedicated to Tesla. The company reached its goal of selling a $35K Model 3. Tesla also announced a significant shift in sales strategy. There is quite a bit to discuss.
This daily update is available for Above Avalon members. To continue reading, click here.
Become an Above Avalon member to read today's email and receive future daily updates. You can use the payment forms/links below to sign up ($20/month or $200/year). For more information on memberships, click here.