Intel's Vaunt Smart Glasses, Amazon Acquires Ring, Apple's Approach to the Home
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Intel's Vaunt Smart Glasses
- Amazon Acquires Ring
- Apple's Approach to the Home
Today's email kicks off with my thoughts on Vaunt, Intel's prototype pair of smart glasses. The discussion then turns to Amazon acquiring Ring. We go over Amazon's motivation behind the deal and what it tells us about how Amazon views the home. The email concludes with an overview of Apple's approach to the home and whether it makes sense for Apple to acquire start-ups in the smart home space.
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Apple to Release Three New iPhones, Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing, Fitbit's Smartwatch Flopped
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple to Release Three New iPhones
- Thoughts on New iPhone Pricing
- Fitbit's Smartwatch Flopped
Today's email begins with my thoughts on Apple releasing three new flagship iPhones in 2018. We then go over my pricing projections for the flagship models and the rest of the iPhone line. The email concludes with a closer look at Fitbit's 4Q17 earnings.
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Estimating the iPhone Installed Base, Estimating the iPhone User Base, Samsung Unveils Galaxy S9 and S9+
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Estimating the iPhone Installed Base
- Estimating the iPhone User Base
- Samsung Unveils Galaxy S9 and S9+
Today's email begins with a few corollaries associated with last week's Above Avalon article regarding the iPhone's Goldilocks era. I share my revised estimates for the size of the iPhone installed base and user base at the end of December 2017. We also go over the differences between the two and why I think Apple will be able to grow the iPhone installed base over the next few years. The email concludes with my thoughts on Samsung's Galaxy S9 and S9+ set within the broader dynamic unfolding in the smartphone industry.
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The Goldilocks Era for iPhone, Apple's Lack of iPhone Visibility, Thursday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- The Goldilocks Era for iPhone
- Apple's Lack of iPhone Visibility
- Thursday Q&A
We begin today's email by continuing the discussion kicked off in my article, "The Goldilocks Era for iPhone Has Begun." We specifically look at how this Goldilocks Era may be received on Wall Street. The discussion then turns to why I think Apple management has a credibility issue when it comes to talking about iPhone demand and the dynamic underpinning the iPhone upgrade cycle. The email concludes with the latest installment of Thursday Q&A. I answer the following questions from Above Avalon subscribers:
- What does Apple management think AAPL shares are worth? What clues would suggest management thinks AAPL shares are fairly valued?
- How likely is it for Apple to acquire Magic Leap or Snapchat?
- Should Apple increase employee compensation in order to improve efficacy? How does Apple's share repurchase program impact employee wealth?
- What are my predictions for the next MacBook refresh?
- Why have reports about Apple Car subsided over the past year?
- Is it possible that Apple will do most of its autonomous driving research in China and not the U.S.?
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WSJ's Odd iPhone Story, Apple Plays a Different Game, Apple Isn't an Ecosystem Company
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- WSJ's Odd iPhone Story
- Apple Plays a Different Game
- Apple Isn't an Ecosystem Company
Today's email begins with my thoughts on the WSJ's article about iPhone losing out in Asia to low-cost Chinese smartphone manufacturers. We then look at three smartphone industry data points that reveal the game Apple is actually playing in the smartphone industry. The email concludes with why I don't think Apple is an ecosystem company. Calls for Apple to launch some kind of "Apple as a service" subscription tied to the Apple ecosystem are off the mark.
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Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales, Fossil Seeing Minor Wearables Traction, Notes from Apple's 1Q18 10-Q
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Estimating Microsoft Surface Sales
- Fossil Seeing Minor Wearables Traction
- Notes from Apple's 1Q18 10-Q
Today's email begins with my estimates for Microsoft Surface unit sales over the holidays. We then discuss my thoughts on Surface as an iPad/Mac competitor. Next, we turn to Fossil's 4Q17 earnings. We go over my estimates for Fossil smartwatch sales over the holidays and how the company is seeing some minor traction in wrist wearables land. The email concludes with my notes from Apple's 10-Q for 1Q18.
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HomePod Leaving Marks on Some Furniture, Apple's Obligation to Customers, Warren Buffett Increases Apple Stake
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- HomePod Leaving Marks on Some Furniture
- Apple's Obligation to Customers
- Warren Buffett Increases Apple Stake
Today's email begins with my thoughts on HomePod leaving white rings on some wooden surfaces. There are aspects to this story that just don't sit well with me. We then discuss Berkshire Hathaway (Warren Buffett) increasing its Apple stake during 4Q17. We look at Buffett's AAPL purchases over the past two years and I share a few additional observations regarding the news.
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Apple Delays iOS 12 Features, iOS Development Timeline Changes, A Tug-of-War Within Apple
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Apple Delays iOS 12 Features
- iOS Development Timeline Changes
- A Tug-of-War Within Apple
Today's email is dedicated to discussing Apple software potentially becoming a crack in the Apple machine. We look at recent reports about iOS 12 features being delayed and changes made to the way iOS development is handled. We then investigate what I think is the root of the problem.
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Goldman Sachs Looking at iPhone Financing, Apple Slows Down Debt Buying, Google to Embrace iPhone X Notch
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- Goldman Sachs Looking at iPhone Financing
- Apple Slows Down Debt Buying
- Google to Embrace iPhone X Notch
We begin with reports that Goldman Sachs is in talks with Apple regarding product financing opportunities. I dispel a few rumors attached to the story. The discussion then shifts to Apple beginning to prep its investment portfolio for major changes related to returning excess cash to shareholders. The email concludes with a discussion of Google's plans to embrace the iPhone X notch and why Android OEMs are ready to go all-in on the notch.
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AAPL Volatility, Apple Is Winning the HomePod Debate, Apple Music to Surpass Spotify in U.S.
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
- AAPL Volatility
- Apple Is Winning the HomePod Debate
- Apple Music to Surpass Spotify in U.S.
We discuss my thoughts on Apple's recent stock price volatility. The discussion then turns to my initial HomePod impressions and why I think Apple is winning the debate surrounding HomePod. The email concludes with the WSJ painting a very different picture than consensus of the music streaming market in the U.S.
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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Full Notes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Full Notes)
Today's email includes the second half of my Apple 1Q18 earnings review. This past Friday's email was focused on the major themes (available here). Today's email goes over my full notes from Apple's earnings and conference call. We cover 32 different topics.
My full Apple 1Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.
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Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following topics:
Apple 1Q18 Earnings Review (Major Themes)
- The Messy iPhone Business
- iPhone X Questions
- Apple Wearables Shine
- Balance Sheet Bonanza
- Apple Tries New Narrative
Today's email includes the first half of my Apple 1Q18 earnings review. We discuss the major themes from Apple's earnings report and conference call. The second half of my earnings review (will be published on Monday) will go over my full notes from Apple's earnings release and conference call.
My full Apple 1Q18 earnings review is available for Above Avalon subscribers. To continue reading, click here.
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