Apple 1Q25 Earnings Review
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Apple 1Q25 Earnings Review
Welcome to a special Friday edition of the Above Avalon Daily. Here is our game plan for tackling Apple’s 1Q25 earnings:
Today: Discuss big picture takeaways.
Monday: Discuss takeaways from Apple’s earnings conference call.
Tuesday: Catch basin edition where we cover leftover items / dive into a few follow-ups.
My Apple earnings model has been updated for both 1Q25 and 2Q25 guidance. My estimates for FY25 and FY26 have also been revised. The updated model has already been uploaded to the "Digital Package" tab within the Above Avalon Payer Portal (accessible to members who have attached the Financial Models add-on to their membership). This is the quickest turnaround in my earnings model being made accessible to others following earnings. The plan is to spend some time updating my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models over the weekend. We received a number of new data points that need to be incorporated into the models.
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Previewing Apple’s 1Q25 Earnings, Apple 1Q25 Earnings Expectation Meters
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Previewing Apple’s 1Q25 Earnings
Apple 1Q25 Earnings Expectation Meters
My 1Q25 earnings preview looks slightly different as we bring back my expectation meters and a “cheat sheet” that can be utilized with Apple’s earnings release. In addition to my 1Q25 estimates, the email includes commentary regarding expectations heading into Apple’s earnings release.
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Apple’s AI Strategy, My Vision for Siri, Hardware’s Importance
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple’s AI Strategy
My Vision for Siri
Hardware’s Importance
Today’s discussion will begin with how the DeepSeek news impacts Apple. Our focus will then turn to Apple’s AI strategy. It’s been surprising how few observers have connected the dots. Next, we discuss my vision for Siri. The update concludes with why hardware is gaining importance.
Let’s jump in.
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DeepSeek Alarm Bells, Wall Street’s Freak-Out, Revisiting Huawei vs. Apple
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
DeepSeek Alarm Bells
Wall Street’s Freak-Out
Revisiting Huawei vs. Apple
Happy Monday.
This is going to be a busy week. Apple reports earnings on Thursday. That positions Wednesday as our earnings preview day.
For today’s update, we will talk about DeepSeek. There are two storylines found with the Chinese AI start-up that are being intertwined with each other. We have a LLM model efficiency story wrapped in a geopolitical blanket. The discussion will roll into Tuesday when we talk about Apple’s AI strategy.
Let’s jump right in.
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What’s Driving AAPL’s Underperformance?, iPhone Demand in China, Apple Jitters
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
What’s Driving AAPL’s Underperformance?
iPhone Demand in China
Apple Jitters
I have been receiving questions regarding what may be going on with AAPL and reports suggesting there are iPhone demand issues in China. Let’s discuss both items.
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Netflix 4Q24 Earnings, Netflix and the NFL, More Netflix Price Hikes
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Netflix 4Q24 Earnings
Netflix and the NFL
More Netflix Price Hikes
I have been receiving questions about the latest with AAPL and various reports out of China regarding iPhone demand. While my preference is to stay away from commenting on daily stock price fluctuations, we have now seen about three weeks of a certain trend. Accordingly, we can visit the topic on Thursday.
Today’s update will be focused on Netflix’s 4Q24 earnings. It’s hard to believe, but the next earnings cycle is upon us. There were two takeaways that stood out to me about Netflix’s numbers. We will go into each takeaway in greater detail.
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My Thoughts About Tim Cook at Trump’s Inauguration, Apple’s Top (Political) Issues, A Larger Reset
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
My Thoughts About Tim Cook at Trump’s Inauguration
Apple’s Top (Political) Issues
A Larger Reset
Yesterday wasn’t quiet on the news front. Today’s update will go over my thoughts about what took place at the Trump inauguration from an Apple / tech perspective. Tim Cook was in attendance for most of the day’s events. This is not a politics newsletter. We are not going to break down President Trump’s inauguration speech. Instead, there is plenty to say about how the day transpired, including broader takeaways regarding the role tech leaders are playing in U.S. politics.
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“Severance” Pop-Up at Grand Central, Apple’s Genius Marketing, Apple Finally Punches Back
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
“Severance” Pop-Up at Grand Central
Apple’s Genius Marketing
Apple Finally Punches Back
This is a big weekend for Apple TV+ as both the Season 2 premiere of “Severance” and the Season 2 finale of “Silo” are now live. There will be a lot of watch time materializing this weekend. There are several observations worth sharing, including takeaways from some of the best guerrilla marketing Apple has done in a very long time.
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Sonos CEO Fired, Where Sonos Went Wrong, Smart Speaker Intrigue
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Sonos CEO Fired
Where Sonos Went Wrong
Smart Speaker Intrigue
We will shift gears by talking about Sonos. Obviously, we can point to Sonos’ problematic app as a major factor behind the company’s current predicament. We can’t underestimate just how damaging the app fiasco has been on Sonos business results. However, the app saga is a symptom of much larger and deeper issues within Sonos. Today’s discussion also goes over why the premium smart speaker space remains fascinating to me.
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Apple Goes Public With Meta Interoperability Requests, Apple and Interoperability Risk, Zuckerberg’s Master Plan
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Apple Goes Public With Meta Interoperability Requests
Apple and Interoperability Risk
Zuckerberg’s Master Plan
There is backstory to Mark Zuckerberg’s complaints about not having better access to Apple’s ecosystem to help sell products like Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. Today’s update goes over the Digital Markets Act’s interoperability requirements and Apple’s corresponding white paper on the topic. We also go over my view on Zuckerberg’s master plan in going after Apple on interoperability grounds.
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Meta Pivots on Content Moderation, Zuckerberg Talks Apple on Joe Rogan, Zuckerberg Continues to Gaslight
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Meta Pivots on Content Moderation
Zuckerberg Talks Apple on Joe Rogan
Zuckerberg Continues to Gaslight
Last week, Mark Zuckerberg announced that major changes were coming to Meta properties on censorship and content moderation fronts. Today’s discussion begins with my broader stance on the changes. We then shift to Mark Zuckerberg’s three-hour interview with Joe Rogan. There is a lot to say about Zuckerberg’s comments about the iPhone and Apple innovation (or lack thereof).
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What Happened to CarPlay 2.0?, Eddy Cue Talks Down Apple Search Engine, Apple Uses Shazam for Predictive Analysis
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
What Happened to CarPlay 2.0?
Eddy Cue Talks Down Apple Search Engine
Apple Uses Shazam for Predictive Analysis
We are going to jump right into today’s update with CarPlay talk. The update will then shift to the latest in the U.S. v. Google search case, concluding with an intriguing new feature from Apple’s Shazam.
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Dell Renames PC Line, Apple News Expansion Planned, Apple Intelligence Notification Summaries Need Work
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Dell Renames PC Line
Apple News Expansion Planned
Apple Intelligence Notification Summaries Need Work
For those of you in the LA area, my hope is that things are going OK as it pertains to the wildfires.
My list of news topics worth covering this week has been created. As usual, we are not going to get to most of the stories. For today, we will start with Dell renaming its PC line. The discussion will then shift over to Apple News, concluding with Apple Intelligence Notification Summaries.
Let's jump right in.
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Looking Ahead at Apple in 2025 (A Financial Perspective)
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Looking Ahead at Apple in 2025 (A Financial Perspective)
Happy Tuesday. We will continue yesterday’s discussion by looking at Apple’s 2025 from a financial perspective. We will begin to cover some news items tomorrow.
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Looking Ahead at Apple’s 2025
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Looking Ahead at Apple’s 2025
Hello everyone. It feels good to get back into the swing of things. We will kick off the 10th year of this newsletter with a look ahead at Apple in 2025. There are a few things that have been on my mind. The discussion will likely flow into tomorrow’s update as well.
Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.
Above Avalon Membership
Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions.
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Member Privileges and Benefits
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