Apple and Tariffs (Part 2)
Hello everyone. The level of unknown surrounding the tariff situation continues to rise.
We continue our multi-day discussion on Apple and tariffs. Today’s update will keep us on Apple’s supply chain.
On our “to discuss” list for the rest of the week:
Pros and cons found with Apple passing tariff costs on to consumers.
More on what looks like a full-fledged game of who will blink first between the U.S. and China as 104% import tariffs go into effect.
Apple’s earnings power, and valuation implications, after considering both universal and reciprocal various tariffs.
Let’s jump right in.
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Apple and Tariffs (Part 1)
Hello everyone. We are going to take advantage of this daily newsletter’s format when it comes to analyzing Apple and tariffs. There will be a discussion that stretches across several updates. Today’s update will be “Part 1.”
My goal is to cover pretty much every nook and cranny that should be covered when it comes to Apple and tariffs. There is a lot of noise in terms of publications and people focusing on the wrong things. Accordingly, our discussion may have different focus areas compared to prevailing analysis circulating on social media.
For today’s discussion, we are going to start a bit big picture by laying out the situation. In the coming days, there will opportunity for us to go deeper on some points.
Let’s jump in.
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Trump Announces Additional Tariffs, White House Hints at Tariff Exemptions for Apple, Apple Options
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:
Trump Announces Additional Tariffs
White House Hints at Tariff Exemptions for Apple
Apple Options
Hello everyone. Given how some of you are new to Above Avalon membership (welcome), today is a good time to reiterate that this is not a politics newsletter. Accordingly, our focus is not going to be on the pros and cons of U.S. tariffs. Instead, we have plenty of items to discuss pertaining to how yesterday's big announcement involving reciprocal tariffs will impact Apple. The discussion will begin by going over what was announced. We will then turn to my latest thinking regarding Apple receiving tariff exemptions. The update will conclude with several options Apple has at its disposal if tariff exemptions do not materialize.
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Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:
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Tim Cook in China for Third Time This Year, Trump Threatens 10% China Tariffs, Amazon Invests Another $4B in Anthropic
Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following story:
Tim Cook in China for Third Time This Year
Trump Threatens 10% China Tariffs
Amazon Invests Another $4B in Anthropic
We kick off today’s update with my thoughts on Tim Cook’s third visit to China in 2024 and what appears to be political maneuvering and massaging tied to President Trump winning a second term. The discussion then turns to Trump threatening a 10% tariff put on Chinese goods. We conclude the update with Amazon putting more money in Anthropic.
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Trump Issues Directive to U.S. Companies in China, Tim Cook Continues to Thread the Needle, AAPL Observations
Today's Above Avalon daily update includes the following stories:
Trump Issues Directive to U.S. Companies in China
Tim Cook Continues to Thread the Needle
AAPL Observations
The big story over the weekend was new developments on the U.S. / China front. We kick off today’s email with a closer look at President Trump’s tweet “ordering” U.S. companies to look for alternatives to China. The discussion then turns to how Apple has been able to escape a direct hit in the U.S. / China trade fiasco. We conclude with a few of my observations regarding AAPL price action.
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