Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros, My AAPL 4Q24 Estimates

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros

  • My AAPL 4Q24 Estimates

Hello everyone. We are at that point of the week where some triage is needed. There is a lot of stuff unfolding and not enough time to cover it all. Big Tech earnings are now in full swing. We will discuss earnings from Apple competitors in due time. For now, our attention is needed elsewhere.

Programming Note. With Apple reporting FY4Q24 earnings tomorrow (Thursday), there won’t be a daily update published Thursday. Instead, there will be a special edition Friday update that goes over my thoughts and reactions to Apple’s earnings.

Apple Earnings Preview. Yesterday’s update, which was sent out very early today in the AM ET, went over the big picture heading into Apple's earnings on Thursday. The FY4Q24 expectations game is slightly biased to the upside for Apple. Compared to expectations facing Apple ahead of 3Q24 earnings, things are a tad tougher for Apple to surprise to the upside. However, the general framework still has an upward bias. Today’s discussion will continue my earnings preview so that we are fully prepared for tomorrow.

Updated MacBook Pros. For Day 3 of Apple’s Mac week, the company unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Many of the broader points regarding Apple Intelligence and Mac strategy were discussed in the two most recent updates. There is no need to reiterate those points again with MacBook Pro. However, there are a few observations about the machines worth going over. We will quickly go over those (250-300 words) and then switch over to Apple’s earnings.

Financial Models Add-on. There are several updates to my iPhone, iPad, and Apple Watch installed base models coming down the pipeline. In looking over the models a few weeks ago, my preference ended up being to wait until we got closer to 4Q24 earnings to update all of the models at once. Accordingly, my updated installed base models, which influenced my 4Q24 estimates, will go live tomorrow for those members with the Financial Models add-on. In addition, my updated Apple earnings model will be uploaded to the add-on in the AM. As a reminder to those of you with the add-on, to access the financial models, log into the Above Avalon payer portal (here) and once signed in you will see the "Digital Package" tab which will bring you to your personalized download page. More information on the Financial Models add-on is available here


Apple Unveils Updated MacBook Pros

Earlier today, Apple unveiled updated MacBook Pros and a M4 Max chip. Along with a press release, Apple taped a 14-minute presentation (available here). For those of you who have watched the iMac and Mac mini presentations, the MacBook Pro presentation relied on the same general playbook. The MacBook Pro update was anchored by Apple Intelligence and Apple Silicon. The relevant presentation sections were tailored to show off workflows that would likely be given to MacBook Pro.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


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Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

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Neil Cybart Neil Cybart

The Redesigned Mac Mini, The Setup Facing Apple Ahead of 4Q24 Earnings

Today's Above Avalon Daily email contains the following stories:

  • The Redesigned Mac Mini

  • The Setup Facing Apple Ahead of 4Q24 Earnings

Hello everyone. Today's update will kick off with new Apple product news, followed by the start of our Apple 4Q24 earnings preview. The earnings talk will flow into tomorrow’s update.

Above Avalon membership is required to read this update. Members can read the update here.


Above Avalon Membership

Choose either a monthly or annual membership. Payment is hosted by MoonClerk and secured by Stripe. Apple Pay and other mobile payment options are accepted. After signup, use this link to update your payment information and membership status at any time. Contact me with any questions. 

Contact me directly if you would like to purchase multiple subscriptions (five or more) for your team or company.

Member Privileges and Benefits

Become an Above Avalon member and receive the following privileges and benefits:

  • Exclusive Analysis. Receive my daily newsletter and reports containing analysis and perspective, 100% related to Apple. 

  • Member Archive. Access all previous analysis sent to members.

  • Member Forums. Interact with other members in the Above Avalon team in Slack.

  • Priority Email Access. Receive timely responses to all email inquiries. 

  • Access to Add-ons. Customize a membership with the Podcast, Inside Orchard, and Financial Models add-ons.

  • Above Avalon Support. Play an active role in supporting Above Avalon as an independent voice and resource.

Read More