U.S. Appeals Court Rules on App Store Injunction, Both Sides Can Claim Victories, Thoughts on Fees for App Link-Outs
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
U.S. Appeals Court Rules on App Store Injunction
Both Sides Can Claim Victories
Thoughts on Fees for App Link-Outs
This is one of those days in which a breaking story changed plans and the schedule. Yesterday afternoon, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals issued its ruling on the April 2025 App Store anti-steering injunction decision. Today’s update will be dedicated to analyzing the ruling and the accompanying implications. There’s a lot to unpack. We begin with the ruling itself. The discussion then turns to why Neil thinks both sides can claim a victory with the ruling. The update then turns to what may happen with Apple’s fees / commissions applied to app link-outs.
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Apple Fitness+ Expansion, Revisiting Peloton, Pebble Unveils AI Smart Ring
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Fitness+ Expansion
Revisiting Peloton
Pebble Unveils AI Smart Ring
We kick things off with Neil’s thoughts on Apple Fitness+ receiving a major expansion in country availability. The update then turns to Peloton. It’s been nearly two years since we talked about Peloton. With Apple announcing the largest expansion to Apple Fitness+ since launch, it makes sense to quickly revisit where things stand with Peloton. We conclude with Neil’s assessment of the Pebble Index 01, an AI smart ring that Pebble just unveiled.
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Apple Poaches Meta’s Top Lawyer, Lisa Jackson to Retire, Apple Streamlines Hierarchy
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Poaches Meta’s Top Lawyer
Lisa Jackson to Retire
Apple Streamlines Hierarchy
The update begins with Neil’s reaction to Kate Adams, Apple SVP and general counsel, retiring in 2026. There were a few details found with the news that jumped out to Neil. The discussion then turned to Lisa Jackson, VP environment, policy, and social, also retiring. We recap Jackson’s tenure and some questions about Apple’s 2030 environment goal. The update concludes with one takeaway from last week’s leadership changes that completely flew under the radar.
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Alan Dye Leaves Apple for…Meta, Poaching Apple Employees: Nuisance or Big Problem?
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Alan Dye Leaves Apple for…Meta
Poaching Apple Employees: Nuisance or Big Problem?
The update begins with Neil’s reaction to news that Alan Dye, Apple VP user interface design, moving over to Meta. The discussion then turns to the variety of reactions the Alan Dye news generated online. There has been a general theme to the madness. We also go over Neil’s theory for what may have pushed Dye to look at Meta. The update concludes with answering the following question: Has something changed in the marketplace so that poaching Apple employees has turned from a nuisance to a genuine problem?
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Apple’s AI Chief Steps Down, John Giannandrea’s Legacy at Apple, Apple Poaches Microsoft AI Executive
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple’s AI Chief Steps Down
John Giannandrea’s Legacy at Apple
Apple Poaches Microsoft AI Executive
Hello everyone. The Apple news flow remains in overdrive. A few hours ago, news broke that Alan Dye is stepping down from leading user interface design to oversee a new creative studio within Meta’s Reality Labs. We will tackle that development tomorrow.
Today’s update ended up taking two full days to write. I had no interest in rushing something out yesterday that didn’t fully capture my stance, especially about such a multifaceted topic. Let’s jump in.
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iPhone 17 Sales Momentum, A Smartphone Industry Observation, Apple’s 2025 Holiday Ad
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
iPhone 17 Sales Momentum
A Smartphone Industry Observation
Apple’s 2025 Holiday Ad
We begin with Neil’s thoughts on the latest iPhone estimates from Counterpoint. The discussion then turns to one of Neil’s observations regarding what is unfolding in the broader smartphone industry. We conclude with some comments on Apple’s new 2025 holiday ad featuring puppets.
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Disney Earnings, Alphabet Earnings, Amazon Earnings
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Disney Earnings
Alphabet Earnings
Amazon Earnings
This update will cover Disney, Alphabet, and Amazon CY3Q25 earnings. Instead of losing ourselves in the weeds from a numbers perspective, the discussion will include both qualitative and quantitative takeaways.
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Netflix Earnings, Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery, Most Likely Outcome for Warner Bros. Discovery
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Netflix Earnings
Netflix Bids for Warner Bros. Discovery
Most Likely Outcome for Warner Bros. Discovery
We begin today’s update by analyzing Netflix’s 3Q25 earnings and earnings call. The discussion then turns to the Warner Bros. Discovery sales process. By acquiring Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix would face two concerns. The update then concludes with how Neil sees the Warner Bros. Discovery sales process playing itself out.
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MLB’s New Media Rights, Tesla Planning CarPlay Support, More on Meta’s Business Model
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
MLB’s New Media Rights
Tesla Planning CarPlay Support
More on Meta’s Business Model
We wrap up a busy week with two news stories that jumped out at me. The update begins with a closer look at MLB (U.S. baseball) signing a new media rights deal. Our focus then turns to reportedly big news on the CarPlay front as Elon Musk is looking to eventual support CarPlay in Tesla vehicles. The third story ties up a few loose ends regarding our Meta discussion from yesterday.
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Meta 3Q25 Earnings, Did Zuckerberg “Kitchen Sink” Capex Expectations?, The Big Picture
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Meta 3Q25 Earnings
Did Zuckerberg “Kitchen Sink” Capex Expectations?
The Big Picture
We kick things off by going over the main takeaways from Meta’s earnings report. The discussion then turns to why Neil thinks Mark Zuckerberg may have “kitchen sinked” capex expectations this time around. We conclude with some big picture thoughts on where Meta finds itself in both AI mania and the broader Big Tech landscape.
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More on Apple CEO Succession, Defining the Apple CEO Role, What Apple Should Do
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
More on Apple CEO Succession
Defining the Apple CEO Role
What Apple Should Do
Hello everyone. Today’s update will continue our discussion regarding Apple CEO succession, including what I think Apple should do over the next few years. The first half of the discussion can be found here.
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Apple Intensifying CEO Succession Planning, My Initial Thoughts on How Things Play Out
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Intensifying CEO Succession Planning
My Initial Thoughts on How Things Play Out
Hello everyone. This is going to be the first part of a two-part update dedicated to Apple CEO succession. The Financial Times is out with an important article on the topic. There’s much to discuss, including my thoughts on what may happen after Tim Cook steps down as CEO. Let’s jump right in.
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Friday Q&A
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following story:
Friday Q&A
Hello everyone. Here is a special Friday edition of Q&A. It’s been a while since we last did a Q&A. Based on the number of incoming questions, it’s probably a good idea to run an installment more often.
The update covered the following questions:
If the U.S. Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs to be illegal does that mean the tariff cost Apple reported is the only cost that goes away (or gets refunded depending on the ruling), or is Apple also paying non-IEEPA tariffs?
Do you think Apple’s share price will be affected by an overall bubble in AI tech shares bursting? (Or a balloon deflating!)
What does Apple think its stock is worth?
What is your opinion regarding the possibility of Apple acquiring Curiosity Stream or licensing their contents?
When is Apple releasing an updated Apple TV 4K unit?
Why didn’t Apple didn’t see the need for core technologies to power AI features back in 2022 (like many other big tech companies)? When Apple did see it, why didn’t they place a big bet on developing their own LLM rapidly (like other big tech companies) to become independent?
Are you concerned by the continued poaching of Apple employees by Jony Ive / OpenAI?
Did Apple make a mistake cancelling Project Titan?
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Apple Talks TV Strategy, No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now), Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Talks TV Strategy
No Apple TV Ad Tier (For Now)
Estimating Apple TV Revenue
Happy Thursday. Apple TV (Eddy Cue, Jamie Erlicht, Zack Van Amburg) was on the cover of Screen International’s November 2025 edition. This was the most informative interview to date in terms of Apple executives discussing Apple TV strategy. After going over key takeaways from the interview, we look specifically at Apple shooting down the suggestion that an ad tier is coming to Apple TV. We conclude with Neil’s estimates for the number of Apple TV subscribers, ARPU, and revenue, including five-year projections.
Tomorrow’s update will be a special Friday Q&A edition. This is an opportunity to submit questions that you would like answered in a daily update. Questions can be about anything, including topics not previously covered in the updates. To submit a question, just reply to this email. You can also post your question in the Above Avalon forum in Discord.
Note: If you submitted a question within the past week via email, I have them. There is no need to re-send.
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Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket, A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations, The Larger Story
Today's Above Avalon Daily update includes the following stories:
Apple Unveils iPhone Pocket
A Few Fun iPhone Pocket Observations
The Larger Story
Hello everyone. Yesterday, Apple unveiled iPhone Pocket which is being positioned as a fashion accessory serving as an extra pocket for storing an iPhone, pair of AirPods etc. The product, developed via an Issey Miyake / Apple collaboration, grabbed a surprising amount of press on social media with quite a bit of the reaction tending down the path of mockery / amusement.
There are times when one can learn a surprising amount from the small things. iPhone Pocket feels like one of those “small things.” Accordingly, we are going to dedicate today’s update to talking about what may end up being the least expected product Apple will unveil in 2025. There are larger topics and trends that can be pulled from an accessory like iPhone Pocket being unveiled. Let’s jump in.
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