Above Avalon Episode 189: Apple Is in a League of Its Own
The primary takeaway from Apple’s “Peek Performance” event held last month wasn’t found with any particular product. Instead, it was the sheer breadth of product unveilings that caught Neil’s attention. In episode 189, Neil discusses how a revised product strategy and doubling down on a long-standing internal product development process have resulted in Apple being in a league of its own in terms of maintaining and updating such a wide and comprehensive ecosystem of devices and services. Additional discussion topics include Apple new user trends, autonomy within Apple, how the competition is floundering, and the risk Apple faces in an environment with weaker competitors.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates. The updates, which have become widely read and influential in the world of Apple, provide timely analysis of news impacting Apple and its competitors. Neil also publishes exclusive reports on Apple business, product, and financial strategy. The daily updates and reports are available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes:
Apple Is in a League of Its Own
iPhone new users: 60 million per year (a five-year high)
Apple Watch new users: 30 million per year (an all-time high)
iPad new users: 30 million per year (an eight-year high)
Mac new users: 15 million per year (an all-time high)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 188: Apple Closed Its M&A Wallet
While going through Apple’s recently-filed 10-K for FY2021, one number jumped out at me. It wasn’t the record iPhone sales, strong margins, or phenomenal free cash flow. Instead, it was the lack of cash spent on M&A. In episode 188, we discuss the key takeaway found with Apple spending just $33 million on business acquisitions (M&A) in FY2021. The discussion includes Neil’s thinking as to what may be behind the multi-year low for M&A and an overview of Apple’s M&A strategy.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes / Links:
Apple’s Extremely Quiet Year for M&A
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Above Avalon Episode 187: Thoughts on Apple Watch Series 7
In episode 187, Neil discusses his initial observations wearing an Apple Watch Series 7. The episode also goes over Apple Watch strategy, puts the Series 7 into perspective, and discusses why Apple continues to sell Apple Watch Series 3.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Show Notes / Links:
The Apple Watch Series 7 Is Great (Above Avalon Article)
The Number of Apple Watches in the Wild, Apple Watch Adoption Estimates, Apple Watch Upgrading Trends (Above Avalon Daily Update)
More on Apple Watch Series 7, Apple Watch vs. iPhone Sales, Apple Watch Installed Base Mix by Model (Above Avalon Daily Update)
Above Avalon Daily Updates (story headlines and summaries for 1,200+ updates)
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Above Avalon Episode 186: The iPhone 13 Has Arrived
Last week, Apple hosted a virtual event where it unveiled annual updates to the iPhone and Apple Watch. Updates to the iPad line and Fitness+ were also announced. Shortly after the event, Neil received an iPhone 13 Pro to try out. In episode 186, Neil discusses the iPhone 13 Pro in a way to add context to the broader iPhone business. The episode includes Neil’s initial impressions from using the iPhone 13 Pro. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page (https://www.aboveavalon.com/membership).
Show Notes / Links:
Hands-on with the iPhone 13 Pro
HANDS-ON with the iPhone 13 Pro (Unboxing and initial impressions) - YouTube
The iPhone 13 Test, The Driver Behind iPhone Momentum, Early Thoughts on iPhone 13 Sales
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Above Avalon Episode 185: A Memoji Bridge to Mixed Reality
In episode 185, Neil discusses how Memoji is a tool Apple is relying on to prepare users for mixed realty and completely rethought ways to consume content and communicate with others. Additional topics include the difference between mixed reality, AR, and VR, Apple M&A regarding NextVR and Spaces, and Mark Zuckerberg’s Metaverse. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page (https://www.aboveavalon.com/membership).
Show Notes / Links:
More on Memoji and Apple Mixed Reality, Facebook Earnings, The Problem With Zuckerberg’s Metaverse
Apple Acquires NextVR, Apple Glasses in 2022?, A Wearables Platform for the Face
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Above Avalon Episode 184: Let's Talk WWDC 2021
In episode 184, Neil discusses the big themes found with this year’s WWDC. The episode then takes a deep dive into watchOS direction and what Neil sees as missed opportunities for unleashing more of Apple Watch’s potential. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page (https://www.aboveavalon.com/membership).
Show Notes / Links:
Apple’s Missed Opportunity at WWDC
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Above Avalon Episode 183: A Ten-Year Lead in Wearables
Six years after releasing the Apple Watch, it’s still not clear who is going to represent genuine competition for Apple in the wearables space. In episode 183, Neil discusses the series of events have come together to give Apple a wearables lead of not just a few years but more like a decade. Additional topics include Apple wearables sales (unit sales and revenue) and the three components of Apple’s wearables lead. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Apple Has a Decade-long Lead in Wearables
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
Check out Inside Orchard (Neil’s new site about the technology industry.)
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Above Avalon Episode 182: Apple’s Underestimated Manufacturing Apparatus
Apple is quietly and gradually showing us that the phase “Designed by Apple in California Assembled in China” will evolve. In episode 182, Neil goes over the changes taking place within Apple’s supply chain and manufacturing apparatus. The discussion includes a breakdown of where Apple products are manufactured and the relationship between Apple and its contract manufacturers. Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Designed by Apple in California, Not Assembled in China
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
Check out Inside Orchard (Neil’s new site about the technology industry.)
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Above Avalon Episode 181: Let's Talk Apple Retail
When asked to identify Apple’s crown jewel, most will point to the iPhone or iPad. Apple’s retail operations probably wouldn’t be too high on many people’s lists. This is a mistake. In episode 181, Neil discusses Apple’s retail operations with a focus on where Apple Retail is headed and what changes are needed. Discussion topics include the three distinct phases that Apple Retail has experienced, the roles that Apple stores need to play going forward, and the three big bets that Apple is placing with its stores. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 180: 100 Million Wrists
According to my estimate, 100 million people now wear an Apple Watch. This means that approximately 10% of iPhone users wear an Apple Watch. In episode 180, Neil discusses these installed base and adoption figures as part of a larger discussion regarding Apple Watch’s sales momentum, growth potential, and roles in Apple’s ecosystem. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Apple Watch Is Now Worn on 100 Million Wrists
Above Avalon Episode 174: Apple Watch Is a Runaway Train
Apple Watch Is a Bridge to the Future
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 179: Winning the Buyback Debate
After years of criticism, doubt, and questions surrounding Apple’s share buyback program, we are at a point where we can say with confidence that the buyback debate has ended and Apple was declared the winner. In episode 179, Neil goes over how the buyback debate began and why so many people underestimated Apple’s ability to both buy back shares and invest in its future at the same time. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Apple Won the Share Buyback Debate
Share Buyback 101: An Examination of Apple’s Share Repurchase Strategy
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 178: Welcome to 2021
Episode 178 is dedicated to discussing Apple’s 2020 and where the company finds itself as we enter 2021. The episode goes over the first Above Avalon year in review that was published for 2020. Neil discusses his five favorite Above Avalon weekly articles from 2020 and the sub themes that were found in the 196 daily updates published in 2020. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (3 stories per day, 12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Above Avalon Year in Review (2020)
Above Avalon Podcast Episodes (available to everyone):
Above Avalon Weekly Articles (available to everyone):
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 177: The Rise of the Small Display
While the pandemic is pushing people to embrace larger displays like iPads and Macs, the momentum found with smaller displays is still flying under the radar. In episode 177, Neil discusses how analysis of Apple device display size popularity can be used to gain insight into Apple’s ecosystem and quest to make technology more personal. Receive my analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit the membership page.
Links:
Above Avalon Daily podcast info (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 176: The Mac Earned a Diploma
The Mac is seeing momentum by being true to itself instead of trying to be something that it’s not. With a transition to Apple Silicon, the product category is now benefiting from lessons Apple learned from more popular devices aimed at the mass market. As the Above Avalon podcast enters its seventh season, episode 176 is dedicated to discussing the Mac’s Apple Silicon and what may come next for the Mac. Additional topics include the Apple Silicon transition being akin to a graduation for the Mac, the Apple Innovation Feedback Loop, and overlap between the iPad Pro and Mac portables.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Estimating the Number of Mac Users
Estimating the Number of iPads in Use
Estimating Total Number of iPhone Users
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
Above Avalon Daily podcast info page (sample podcast episodes available here and here)
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Above Avalon Episode 175: iPhone at a Billion
According to Neil’s estimate, Apple surpassed the billion iPhone users milestone last month. With the iPhone upgrade cycle approaching a plateau of four to five years, Apple is well-positioned to report record iPhone unit sales. In episode 175, Neil discusses the current state of the iPhone business as it surpasses a billion users. Topic include: iPhone unit sales, iPhone sales mix broken out by iPhone upgrades and new users, the iPhone installed base, Apple’s top priorities for iPhone, peak iPhone, and more.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
The Number of iPhone Users / The iPhone Upgrade Cycle
Estimating Total Number of iPhone Users
Above Avalon Daily podcast info page (sample episodes are available here and here)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Above Avalon Episode 174: Apple Watch Is a Runaway Train
While the tech press spent years infatuated with stationary smart speakers and the idea of voice-only interfaces, it was the Apple Watch and utility on the wrist that ushered in a new paradigm shift in computing. In episode 174, Neil discusses how Apple Watch momentum is building. The product category resembles a runaway train as no company is in a position to slow it down. Additional topics include the stationary smart speaker mirage, Neil’s Apple Watch installed base estimates, how Apple Watch derives its momentum, and Apple’s health platform.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members in both written and audio forms. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Watch Momentum Is Building
Above Avalon Episode 113: It’s a Smart Speaker Mirage
Above Avalon Episode 163: A Revolution on the Wrist
Apple Watch and a Paradigm Shift in Computing
My Apple Watch Adoption Estimates
Above Avalon Daily podcast info page (sample podcast episodes are available here and here)
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 173: Let's Talk App Store
As Apple pulls away from the competition, the App Store is considered the best (and last) chance for competitors to reshape the mobile industry to their liking. In episode 173, Neil examines how competitors are waging a guerrilla war against Apple and the App Store. The discussion then turns to Neil unveiling a new podcast called Above Avalon Daily.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Estimating App Store’s profitability
Introducing the Above Avalon Daily Podcast
Above Avalon Daily sample episodes are available here and here
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Above Avalon Episode 172: Hidden Acceleration
Apple’s underlying ecosystem strength has been gaining momentum for years - it’s just been masked by people holding on to their iPhones for longer before upgrading. In episode 172, Neil quantifies how much Apple’s ecosystem is growing. Additional topics include the problem found with using overall revenue trends to analyze Apple growth, the Apple Services myth, and why non-iPhone revenue growth matters so much.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple’s Ecosystem Growth Is Accelerating
Above Avalon Episode 170: Pulling Away From the Competition
Above Avalon Episode 171: The Apple Ecosystem
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Above Avalon Episode 171: The Apple Ecosystem
Apple’s ecosystem ends up being about more than just a collection of devices or services. Apple has been quietly building something much larger, and it’s still flying under the radar. In episode 171, Neil examines what Apple’s ecosystem derives its power from and why loyalty and satisfaction rates increase as customers move deeper in the Apple ecosystem. Additional topics include The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products, Apple as a design company, how non-Apple hardware can serve as a Trojan horse for Apple, and how Apple’s ecosystem can evolve.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
The Secret to Apple’s Ecosystem
Above Avalon Episode 44: The Grand Unified Theory of Apple Products
Product Vision: How Apple Thinks About the World
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)
Above Avalon Episode 170: Pulling Away From the Competition
In episode 170, Neil examines how Apple is pulling away from the competition to a degree that we haven’t ever seen before. Given how we are just now entering the wearables era, implications of this shift will be measured in the coming decades, not years. Additional topics include WWDC 2020, Apple’s revised product strategy, the competitive landscape, and Apple’s lead in wearables.
Receive Neil’s analysis and perspective on Apple throughout the week via exclusive daily updates (2-3 stories per day, 10-12 stories per week). Available to Above Avalon members. To sign up and for more information on membership, visit AboveAvalon.com/membership.
Links:
Apple Is Pulling Away From the Competition
Above Avalon Episode 149: Letting Go of the Rope
Apple’s Product Strategy Is Changing
iPhone Sales Share Rises During Pandemic
4Q19 Apple Watch and AirPods Installed Base Estimates
Above Avalon Membership info page (signup forms, sample daily updates, list of member privileges and benefits, answers to frequently asked questions)
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The complete Above Avalon Podcast episode archive (170 episodes) is available here.
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Neil Cybart (host/producer)