Calculating the iPhone Installed Base and User Base, The LG G5, Thursday Q&A

Today's Above Avalon stories: 

  • Calculating the iPhone Installed Base and User Base
  • The LG G5
  • Thursday Q&A

We begin today's email by going over my calculations and methodology for obtaining iPhone installed base and iPhone user base estimates. After discussing the difference between the two (one is used for iPhone upgrade rates, the other for service adoption rates), we go over the key variables that are required for this exercise. We conclude by going through the calculations step by step ending with my estimates. Next, we discuss the LG G5, which was the most interesting smartphone introduced at Mobile World Congress this week. We conclude with Thursday Q&A and the following two questions from Above Avalon members: 

  • When you started analyzing Apple, did you think it would lead to being an auto industry analyst?
  • Are we in a fitness bubble thanks to Fitbit and other fitness wearables?

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Thoughts on a 9.7-Inch iPad Pro, Craig Federighi's Op-Ed in The Washington Post

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Tim Cook's Legacy (continued), The Apple Pencil Uprising, Longer Smartphone Life Cycles